Sustainable and Profitable Fisheries
in the Future Ocean
Rainer Froese
GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany
rfroese@geomar.de
ISOS Lecture, 31 May 2012, Kiel
1
Impact of Climate Change
on Global Fisheries
Cheung et al. 2010. Large-scale redistribution of maximum
fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate
change. Global Change Biology 16:24-35
Looking at 1,000 exploited species the study finds that
• Distributions will shift polewards
• Local extinctions will occur in the tropics and in ‚no
escape‘ seas (e.g. Red Sea, Arabian Gulf)
2
Impact of Climate Change
on Marine Biodiversity
Current
www.futureoceanatlas.de
Over 11,500 species
3
Impact of Climate Change
on Marine Biodiversity
2050
www.futureoceanatlas.de
Over 11,500 species
4
Global Status of Fish Stocks
5
100%
Percent of World Fisheries
26%
22%
5.1 years
31%
80%
Collapsed
4.1 years
Overfished
5.0 years
Fully exploited
60%
38%
Developing
4.3 years
40%
20%
0%
1951
Undeveloped
?
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
Years
6
Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002
Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ?
Stocks (%)
Worm et al., Science 2006
20487 ?
Rainer Froese
Amanda Stern-Pirlot
Kathleen Kesner-Reyes
• The global number and percentage of stocks producing
less than 10% of their maximum landings continues to
increase
• New stocks are getting less, approaching zero after 2020
8
9
Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009
10
Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009
• The method proposed by Froese & Kesner-Reyes 2002 and
subsequently used by Worm et al. 2006 and others is sound
• Global overfishing continues
• FAO, by using a subset of well-researched stocks, underestimates
global overfishing
11
Status of Global Fish Stocks 2009
Neue Bestände
Undeveloped
Fully exploited
Overexploited
Developing
Collapsed
Zusammengebrochen
Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012
12
13
‚Stability‘ in world catches masks decline of fish
stocks
14
Global Catch and Effort
Pauly & Froese 2012
15
European Stocks and Fisheries
16
Status of all European Stocks
Undeveloped
Neue Bestände
Fully exploited
Developing
Overexploited
Collapsed
Zusammengebrochen
Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012
17
• The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires
stock sizes that can produce the maximum
sustainable yield (MSY)
• Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of
2015
• With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this
goal by more than 30 years
18
Rebuilding European Fish Stocks
Precautionary
Target
1
Mean stock size
0.8
Overfished
0.6
0.4
Trend
0.2
0
1970
Unsafe
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the
stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend. 19
Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010
Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks
4.5
UNCLOS
CFP
FAO/UNFAS
JPOI
Damanaki
Fishing pressure (F /Fmsy )
4
3.5
3
Threatening the stock
Trend
2.5
2
1.5
Overfishing
1
Precautionary
Target
0.5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks
were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be
20
missed by more than 30 years.
Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010
• CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory,
without efficient control
• CFP aims for smallest instead of optimal stock size
• Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty
• Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and
maintain overcapacity
21
Harvest Control Rules for
Future Fisheries
22
Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries
Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas,
Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann
Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on
1) economic optimization of fisheries
2) honoring international agreements
3) true implementation of the precautionary principle
4) learning from international experiences
5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management
6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks
If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63%
23
Harvest Control Rule Schema
0.5 B msy
B msy
1.3 B msy
MSY
1
0.91 MSY
Depleted
Zone
Catch / MSY
0.8
Buffer
Zone
Overfishing
Zone
Target
Zone
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.5
1
Biomass / B msy
1.5
2
24
European Fisheries
0.5 B msy
B msy
0.5
1
1.3 B msy
1.6
1.4
Catch / MSY
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
Biomass / B msy
1.5
2
25
Profits in Fisheries
26
• Due to several lucky coincidences, the eastern Baltic cod
stock is recovering
• Here we look at options for management to fully rebuild
the stock and make the fishery highly profitable
27
Simulated profits for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different
management options.
28
• The North Sea cod is outside of safe biological
limits and the southern subpopulation may be
lost
• Yet, legalized overfishing continues
• What if the fishery had been closed in 2003,
following scientific advice?
29
Actual and Possible Stock Size
Possible stock size
Three year closure
Actual stock size
1
Froese & Quaas, in prep.
30
Actual and Possible Profits
Possible profits
Actual profits
Froese & Quaas, in prep.
31
• Definitions of ‚overfished‘ and ‚overfishing‘ that are
compatible with international law
• 19% (FoS) to 31% (MSC) of certified stocks are
overfished and suffer from ongoing overfishing
• But 61% (MSC) to 81% (FoS) are large enough and
moderately exploited, which is better than the 15%
in uncertified stocks
32
Current Work
• Fishing industry borrows from natural
capital at high shadow interest rates.
Quaas et al., accepted
• A simple method for estimating MSY from
catches and resilience.
Martell and Froese, accepted
33
Was It All Worth It?
34
Was It All Worth It?
35
European Fisheries
0.5 B msy
B msy
0.5
1
1.3 B msy
1.6
1.4
Catch / MSY
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
Biomass / B msy
1.5
2
36
Harvest Control Rule Schema
0.5 B msy
B msy
1.3 B msy
MSY
1
0.91 MSY
Depleted
Zone
Catch / MSY
0.8
Buffer
Zone
Overfishing
Zone
Target
Zone
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.5
1
Biomass / B msy
1.5
2
37
Thank You
Questions?
Rainer Froese
rfroese@geomar.de
38