Target Scenario

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1 | Vehicle Technologies Program

SAE Government/Industry Meeting

Henry Kelly, Acting Assistant Secretary

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

U.S. Department of Energy

January 27, 2012 eere.energy.gov

The Cost of Oil is

More than Monetary

• Transportation is responsible for 2/3 of petroleum usage and 1/3

GHG emissions.

• Unites States spends

$1B per day to import oil.

• Global discovery of new oil fields peaked in 1966.

• U.S. oil production peaked in 1971.

World Oil Production

2005: 84.58 mbpd 2008: 85.37 mbpd

2006: 84.54 mbpd 2009: 84.24 mbpd

2007: 84.40 mbpd 2010: 86.82 mbpd

Moving

Goods

Moving

People

Transportation Energy Energy

2 I Vehicle Technologies Program

President calls out goal of 1 million PHEVs on the road by 2015 in State of the Union address

Administration sets goal of reducing oil imports by 1/3 by 2025

Vice

New CAFÉ standards will require cars and light trucks to yield a combined fuel economy of 54.5 miles per gallon

3 I Vehicle Technologies Program

VTP Technology

Advancement Highlights

Lightweighting

Supporting Research and Development of Materials with a Goal to Reduce Chassis Weight by 50%

Advanced Combustion Engines

Increased engine efficiency with simultaneous emissions reduction show the results of DOE R&D

Electrification Infrastructure

Recovery Act

Vehicle Electrification Efforts in

Deployment, Manufacturing, Power

Electronics and Electric Motors

• The Recovery Act enabled the largest-ever

U.S. deployment of electric-drive vehicles and charging infrastructure.

• Installation of over 22,000 Level 2 charging sites at residential, commercial, and public locations and 350 (500VDC) Fast Chargers.

Collection of detailed operational data from this charging infrastructure will allow future improvements.

Advanced Batteries

DOE-Funded Technologies Move to Commercial Applications

4 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

2025 Highway Oil Consumption –

Target Scenario

Adv. powertrain benefits apportioned by subprogram:

(from GPRA12 analysis)

SI

HEV

PHEV/EV

HT

Transportation Cluster Benefits: can approach 100% of 2025 Administration target oil import reduction

5 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

2025 Transportation GHG

Emissions – Target Scenario

6 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

Lifecycle Vehicle Costs

Meeting Established DOE Goals

SI EREV40

BEV150

BEV300

2010 SI

FC HEV

SI PHEV10

Adv SI

2010

Ref SI

Adv SI

Adv CI

SI HEV

21-23

21-22

22-23

22-23

SI PHEV10 23-24

SI EREV40

FC HEV

BEV150

BEV300

31-32

~29

~41

73-74

2015 2030

25-26 27-29

23-24 23-24

23-24 23-24

21-22 20-21

22-24 ~19

~25

~24

19-20

~20

28-29 ~17

44-45 20-21

Adv CI

SI HEV

7 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

Lifecycle Vehicle Costs

Meeting First Milestones

BEV150

SI EREV40

FC HEV

SI HEV

2010 2015

Ref SI

Adv SI

Adv CI

SI HEV

21-23

22-23

22-24

23-24

25-26

24-26

25-26

24-25

SI PHEV10 25-26 24-25

SI EREV40

FC HEV

BEV150

BEV300

36-37 29-30

~32 ~27

49-50 35-36

93-94 60-61

2030

27-29

25-26

25-26

23-24

22-23

24-25

~22

~24

~35

BEV300

2010 SI

Adv CI

Adv SI

SI PHEV10

8 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

Heavy Truck Improvements

Moving

Goods

Moving

People

Conventional Class 8 Vehicle

~6.5 mpdge

~29% WTW h

Petroleum reduction: 0%

Average engine efficiency

42%

Transmission and drivetrain efficiency

95%

Aero, rolling resistance efficiency

9 I Vehicle Technologies Program

87%

Percentage of fuel used to move goods vs people

SuperTruck Class 8 Vehicle

~10 mpdge

~40% WTW h

Petroleum reduction: 35%

50%

97%

96%

$0.60

$0.50

$0.40

$0.30

$0.20

$0.10

$-

Lifecycle Cost Comparison

$0.90

0.7x baseline

Payback Period: 0.75-1.25 years

Breakeven diesel price: $3.50

$0.80

$0.70

Fuel Cost

Sensitivity

Fuel Cost

Powerplant

Non-Powerplant eere.energy.gov

Moving Forward

• Vehicle miles traveled

• Improving fuel economy for legacy fleets

• Off-road vehicles

• Natural gas

• Vehicles becoming more intelligent

• Wide range of fuels now available

10 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

11 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

Henry Kelly

Acting Assistant

Secretary

Energy Efficiency and Renewable

Energy

U.S. Department of

Energy www.energy.gov

12 | Vehicle Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

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