Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios
in the Houston Region
Using ADCIRC
Clint Dawson and Jennifer Proft
Casey Dietrich, Nishant Panda, Adnan Muhammad
Antonia Sebastian, Phil Bedient
SSPEED meeting Feb 14 2013
Hurricane Ike Scenarios
• Original landfall Ike
• Shifted Ike
• MightyIke (+15% windspeed )
• SuperIke (+30% windspeed)
• SH146 Levees and Hartman Bridge Gate
ADCIRC Simulations
• Continuous Galerkin model
• OWI winds for Ike
• Coupled to SWAN
• 10 day simulation
• No tidal forcing, no riverine forcing
• Runs in about 5 hours on Lonestar with 2048 cores
Bathymetry and Topography of Grid
Bathymetry and Topography of Grid
Bathymetry and Topography of Grid
Ike, Shifted Ike, MightyIke, SuperIke ADCIRC Scenarios
• Selected hurricane path and shifted landfall to 8 locations along coastline
• Modified OWI wind files to shift path of hurricane
• MightyIke: increase windspeed by %15 (high Category 3 at landfall)
• SuperIke: increase windspeed by %30 (Category 4 at landfall)
(OL)
*Point 7 NEW LANDFALL (NL)
Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall
Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall
Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)
Hurricane Ike: New Landfall (max water surface elevation)
MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)
MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)
SuperIke (+30%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)
SuperIke (+30%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)
Hydrographs
of Hurricane Ike
scenarios showing
characteristics at
various points of
concern
Some Additional Scenarios Tested
• Implementation of Oyster Reef
• Ike Dike
• Hartman Bridge Gate (Levee)
• Combined SH146 Levee and Hartman Bridge Levees
SH146 and Hartman Bridge Levees ADCIRC Simulations
• Modification of grid to incorporate a Weir Levee along this
route at a 22’ height
• Hurricane Ike scenario
• MightyIke
• Shifted to New Landfall
Location of the SH146 Gate/Hartman Levees
Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall, with Levees
Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall
Ike track
Storm 089
Storm 136
Hurricane Ike: New Landfall, with Levees
Hurricane Ike: New Landfall
MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall, with Levees
MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall
MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall, with Levees
MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall
Current and future steps
• Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid with SuperIke
• Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid on synthetic storm tracks
• Run additional levee scenarios provided by SSPEED
Ike track
Storm 076
Storm 089
Storm 136