Plans for the Research and Testing
Phase of the 2020 Census
Presented by Leonard M. Gaines
Modified from a Presentation to the
State Data Centers by Daniel H. Weinberg
(Assistant Director for ACS and Decennial Census)
2020 Census Vision
An efficient and quality census that counts people, once, only once, and in the right place.
Guiding Principles for the 2020 Census
2020 Census Mission
The 2020 Census will conduct a census of
population and housing and disseminate
data to the President, the States, and the
American people.
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Reduce Cost
Maintain Quality
Reduce Field Timeline
Tailor Response Modes
Leverage ACS
Support Continual Frame Updating
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Support Agile Decision-making
Reuse Data
Leverage Systems and Methods
Leverage Partnerships
Support Organizational Solutions
Build a 21st Century Workforce
2020 Census Goals
An Efficient
2020 Census
A Complete and
Accurate Census
Embraced and
Valued Results
A Well-Managed 2020
Census Program
2
The Challenge and the Target
$180
$160
Census Cost per Housing Unit (2010$)
$156
$140
$120
$98
$100
$80
$70
$60
$81
(short form only)
$81
(possible target*)
$40
$40
$20
$29
$14
$0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 (estd)
2020 (proj)
Notes:
Adjusted for projected FY 2010 savings of $1.6 billion; projected cost per housing unit for 2020 assumes
no change in design and real cost growth from 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 averaged (58.3%); includes the
costs for the 2002-2012 MAF-TIGER Enhancement Program and 2001-2013 American Community
Survey.
(*) One of the goals of the 2020 Census is to conduct the census at a lower cost than the 2010 Census
(per housing unit on an inflation-adjusted basis), while maintaining quality.
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Four Cost-Drivers
And Potential Solutions
Cost-Driver #1
Potential Cost-Reducer
Increased population
diversity and decreased
willingness to cooperate with
self-response and nonresponse follow-up
Census
Census
Form
Expanding, automating, and
tailoring self-response methods,
including an Internet option, and
using administrative records for
follow-up
+
4
Four Cost-Drivers
And Potential Solutions
Cost-Driver #2
Limited 2000-2009 updating
of the Master Address File
and TIGER maps led to a
design incorporating “lastminute” (2009) updates
Potential Cost-Reducer
Continuously updating the address
frame and targeting address
canvassing and map updates using
multiple sources and geographic
partnerships, as described in FY 2011
Geographic Support Systems budget
initiative
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Four Cost-Drivers
And Potential Solutions
Cost-Driver #3
Failure to link acquisitions,
schedule, and budget
Potential Cost-Reducer
A rolling approach to planning,
budget, and schedule
6
Four Cost-Drivers
And Potential Solutions
Cost-Driver #4
Demand for absolute
accuracy
Congress
OMB
Potential Cost-Reducer
Building consensus among
stakeholders regarding tradeoff
between accuracy and cost
National Academy
of Sciences
Race and Ethnic
Advisory Committees
State, Local, and
Tribal Governments
Business/Industry
Data Centers
GAO
DOC IG
American Public
2020 Census
Advisory Committee
Census Information
Centers
7
Research Topic Winnowing Process
Identified Cost and Quality Drivers
Response, coverage improvement, and frame
Brainstorming Sessions
Planned and implemented over a dozen sessions with a limited number of internal and external experts
Expert Input
Presented to and obtained from NAS panel members
Cataloged over 600 Ideas
Clustered into 100+ Projects with Research Questions
Prioritized against Guiding Principles
Identified which are critical to achieving vision,
which must start in FY2011
+
FY2011 initiative
for continuous
MAF-TIGER updating
8
Operational Design Alternatives
Drive the Research
Establishing Where to Count
(full 2019 listing, targeted listing, or no listing)
Enumeration
(6 approaches)
IT and Operational Infrastructure
(centralized, decentralized, or hybrid)
9
Six Key Operational Design Alternatives
10
One Possible Plan
Targeted canvassing
Multimode
self-enumeration
Census
Census
Form
Fewer local census offices
Using administrative
records
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Enumeration
Research Questions
Self-Response Research
 What technology will be feasible for self-enumeration in

2020?
What is the best mix of modes and strategies by
demographics and geography?
 What contact frames can be linked to the physical address?
 How can household follow-up be improved or eliminated?
 What language services and technologies are needed?
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Enumeration
Research Questions
Non-Response Research with Administrative Records
 How can we develop and maintain an independent
administrative records database?
 How can administrative records be used to minimize
census field work?
 What is the quality and the coverage of responses
supplied by administrative records?
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IT and Operational Infrastructure
Research Questions
 What technologies will be available to support IT and
field infrastructure?
 How can we effectively automate and streamline field
operations to take advantage of design changes?
 How can we modernize universe control, HQ
management, data processing?
 What are our workload management system options
and how can we best acquire and implement them?
 How can we use available technology to improve QC?
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Establishing Where to Count
Research Questions
 How can we build a usable statistical model for
Master Address File (MAF) errors, error components,
and their magnitude?
 How can the model be used to measure the quality of
the Master Address File?
 How can we improve Local Update of Census
Addresses (LUCA) procedures for compatibility with
continual updating, improved quality measurement,
and expanded partnerships with local governments,
and a targeted address canvassing operation?
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Policy and Communication Challenges

Cost versus Quality Tradeoff

Meeting Stakeholder Expectations

Public Concern about Privacy and Confidentiality

Public Confidence in the Census

Possible Legislative Changes
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