Skills for the future
Skills for future Europe:
New evidence from new forecast
Vladimir Kvetan
Cedefop
Skills for the future
General picture
• Challenges involved in implementing tools and principles
for education, training and learning
• Connecting point - Learning outcomes
• Wider policy strategy
– Need for increased action on national and EU levels –
complementary approach
– Importance of improving cooperation between
stakeholders
– Need for coherent approach for validating learning at
the workplace
Skills for the future
General picture (2)
• Key actions:
– Increase of transparency of education and training to improve
the relevance of qualification
– Develop common qualifications standards and curricula and
promotion of validation and competence measurement
– Technical and operational support to all sectoral initiatives
– Support and develop mutual trust and communication between
partners competent authorities and stakeholders
– Identify and assess future skills and competences
• http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/events/18446.aspx
Skills for the future
Cedefop’s skill needs analysis
Forecasting
(macro trends)
Sectoral &
occupational studies
Mismatch research
Employer survey
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/identifying-skills-needs/index.aspx
Skills for the future
The new Cedefop skills forecast
• provides projections of skill supply and demand
• provides first analysis/indicators of LM imbalances
Current approach:
• is based on improved methodology and data
• uses econometric modelling and time series
• uses official data sources (primarily Eurostat: Europop
2010, National accounts and LFS; DG ECFIN)
• covers EU-27, Norway, Switzerland (and CCs)
• covers period up to 2020
• assumes modest recovery and a return to job growth
Skills for the future
Key results
•
more than 83 million job opportunities due to:
– a modest net increase in employment of around 8 million new jobs (expansion
demand); and
– around 75 million jobs that will need to be filled as people retire or leave the
workforce (replacement demand)
•
job opportunities in all types of occupations, but most at the higher and
lower end of the job spectrum  possible risk of job polarisation
– the trend towards more skill-intensive jobs at all levels will continue and many
traditional manual or routine jobs will decline
– Place for growth in non-routine tasks even for low skilled
•
Structural changes
– most job opportunities will be in services
– Impact on manufacturing and primary industry not so hard as expected
•
•
a more highly-qualified workforce, with more than 80% of people having
at least medium-level qualifications in 2020
skill demand will lag behind skill supply and brings risk of overqualification in the short-term
Skills for the future
Impact of the recession on the employment
in EU-27+
crisis
Million jobs
forecast
245
240
235
8 million
new jobs
230
225
5,5 million
job losses
220
215
210
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
205
Skills for the future
Impact of the recession on the employment
in EU-27+ (cont.)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Sectoral developments in Europe
(EU 27)
70
Millions
Distribution & transport
60
Business & other services
50
Non-marketed services
40
Manufacturing
30
Construction
20
Primary sector & utilities
10
0
2000
2005
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
2010
2015
2020
Skills for the future
Employment in manufacturing
sector (EU 27)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Growth and uncertainty: sectors
Uncertainty
Low
Growth rate 2010-2020
High
High
Source: Cedefop forecast 2012
Low
Pharmaceuticals
Mechanical Engineering
Motor Vehicles
Construction
Distribution
Hotels & Catering
Land Transport etc
Air Transport
Insurance
Education
Health & Social Work
Manufacturing nes
Water Supply
Retailing
Water Transport
Communications
Banking & Finance
Computing Services
Professional Services
Other Business Services
Miscellaneous Services
Oil & Gas etc
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Wood & Paper
Printing & Publishing
Chemicals nes
Rubber & Plastics
Non-Metallic Mineral Product
Basic Metals
Electrical Eng. & Instruments
Electricity
Agriculture etc
Coal
Other Mining
Textiles, Clothing & Leather
Manufactured Fuels
Metal Goods
Electronics
Other Transport Equipment
Gas Supply
Public Administration &
Defence
Skills for the future
Developments in occupations
million jobs
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
83 million job opportunities
between 2010-2020
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Net change (expansion demand)
Replacement demand
Skills for the future
Structural and occupation specific
components
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Legi s l a tors , s eni or offi ci a l s a nd ma na gers
Profes s i ona l s
Techni ci a ns a nd a s s oci a te profes s i ona l s
Cl erks
Servi ce workers a nd s hop a nd ma rket s a l es workers
Ski l l a gri cul tura l a nd fi s hery workers
Cra ft a nd rel a ted workers
Pl a nt a nd ma chi ne opera tors a nd a s s embl ers
El ementary occupa tions
Source: Cedefop (2012)
Structura l component
Occupa tion s peci fi c component
0.5
Skills for the future
Demand for qualifications
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
million jobs
Net change (expansion demand)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Replacement demand
Skills for the future
Millions
Labour force by qualification
300
250
200
37 %
29 %
22 %
150
47 %
47 %
47 %
100
50
31 %
24 %
16 %
0
2000
2010
Low qualification
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Medium qualification
2020
High qualification
Skills for the future
Highly qualified youth and women
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Ageing in Europe
(change between 2010 and 2020)
million
Population
Labour force
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
15-24
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Skills for the future
Matching demand and supply
Broadly: trends in both skill demand and
supply go in the same direction
BUT
supply rises faster (highly qualified)
demand rises slower (crisis effect)
RISK OF SKILL MISMATCH
Skills for the future
Matching demand and supply:
difficulty to hire
Source: Cedefop (2012)
Skills for the future
Employment by qualifications
million jobs
45
High
40
Medium
Low
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2020
2010
2020
2010
2020
Legislators, Professionals Technicians
senior officials
and associate
and managers
professionals
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
2010
2020
Clerks
2010
2020
Service shop
and market
sales workers
2010
2020
Skilled
agricultural
and fishery
workers
2010
2020
2010
2020
Craft and Plant/machine
related trades operators and
workers
assemblers
2010
2020
Elementary
occupations
Skills for the future
Skills mix by occupation in
manufacturing sector (EU 27)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Employment by qualifications
(plant and machine operators)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
New data and results ONLINE
Look for
at www.cedefop.europa.eu
Skills for the future
Conclusions
• High unemployment vs. skill shortages
• Due to the crisis supply of higher
qualifications rises faster than demand
• Matching calls for the „right“ skills
More detailed skill analyses
Partnerships
Guidance and counselling
Skills for the future
Thank you for your attention
More information:
www.cedefop.europa.eu
or
skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu
Access the forecast data and results online
at www.cedefop.europa.eu!