Nuclear Power –
current status and future development
International Nuclear Conference
"BULGARIAN NUCLEAR ENERGY – NATIONAL, REGIONAL
AND WORLD ENERGY SAFETY“
2-4 June 2011
Alexander V. Bychkov
Deputy Director General
IAEA
International Atomic Energy Agency
IAEA and Nuclear Power
“The Agency has a key role to play in
ensuring that this expansion in nuclear
power takes place in an efficient,
responsible and sustainable manner.
“…countries should be able to introduce
nuclear power knowledgeably, profitably,
safely and securely. .”
Yukiya Amano
Director General
IAEA
2
“The Medium Term Strategy 2012-17”
A. “Facilitating access to nuclear power.”
B. “Strengthening promotion of nuclear science,
technology, and applications.”
C. “Improving nuclear safety and security.”
D. “Providing effective technical cooperation.”
E. “Strengthening the effectiveness and improving
the efficiency of the Agency’s safeguards and
other verification activities.”
F. “Providing efficient, innovative management and
strategic planning,”
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“Facilitating access to nuclear power”
• The Agency should respond to growing interest in nuclear
power, both from newcomers and from countries with existing
nuclear power programmes, with all stages of the fuel cycle.
• “Member States will discuss the development of multilateral
approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle, including the possibility
of creating voluntary mechanisms for assurance of nuclear
fuel supply, as well as possible schemes dealing with the
back-end of the fuel cycle.”
• The Agency should help Member States:
• to build capacities in nuclear science, energy systems analysis,
engineering evaluations, project management and long term planning;
• to support innovations in all areas of nuclear power; and
• to assist throughout all stages of research reactor applications.
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Structure of global electricity supply
Other Ren
Biomass 1.5%
Hydro
15.9%
1.3%
Global electricity
generation in 2008:
20 180 TWh
Coal
41.0%
Nuclear
13.5%
Natural gas
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Oil
5.5%
The Role of Nuclear Power in the Future Energy Mix
• Continued growth in
global energy demand
• Energy security
• Price volatility
• Environment protection
and climate change
Nuclear power:
• Improved operations,
good economics and
safety record starting In spite of economic crisis:
in the early 1990s
 Prospects better than
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ever since the mid 1990s
Impact of a doubling of resource prices
80
70
Base costs
Double resource costs
US$ per MWh
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
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Nuclear
Coal
Natural gas
2010 – From rising expectations to renaissance?
• 442 reactors in operation, up from 437 at the end of 2009
• 374 GWe total installed capacity, up from 371 GWe at the
•
•
•
•
GWe
•
end of 2009
400connected to the grid, up from 2 in 2009
5 new reactors
and 0 in 2008350
2 reactor shutdowns
in 2010, and 2 in 2009
300
12 new construction starts; compared to 12 in 2009 and 10
250
in 2008
200
24 of 29 operating
countries are considering expansion
150ordered their first NPPs
2 “newcomers”
100
50
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0
8
Distribution of NPPs
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What will the renaissance look like?
• Take place mostly in countries that already
have nuclear power
• Low projection: ~ 10 new countries by 2030
• High projection: ~25 new countries by 2030
• Just keeps pace with overall electricity
growth
• Most of the growth expected in Asia
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Fukushima…
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IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety
• The IAEA and Director General Mr.Amano
have proposed that an IAEA Ministerial
Conference on Nuclear Safety should take
place from June 20 to 24 in Vienna.
• The Conference goals:
• to make a preliminary assessment of the
Fukushima Daiichi accident,
• to discuss ways of strengthening emergency
preparedness and response
• to review nuclear safety generally.
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IAEA DG Y.Amano about safety:
• Harmonisation of the many valuable safety instruments
•
•
•
•
which we already have
Regulatory bodies must be further strengthened
The IAEA system of expert peer review missions could
be strengthened and expanded
Technological developments, such as the introduction of
next-generation reactors with stronger reliance on
inherent safety features, will be an important driver of
enhanced safety in the coming years.
The IAEA can play a key role in coordinating national
efforts to promote ever safer nuclear energy technology.
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Safety First
• Safety First,
•
•
•
•
when countries review their existing nuclear power plants,
when they build new plants,
when engineer innovative new reactors.
when countries contemplate introducing nuclear
technology for the first time and when established users
consider expanding their programmes.
• Safety First must also be our guiding principle as we
examine ways of strengthening nuclear safety globally.
• The main driver of the enhanced safety is
naturally the technology
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Nuclear power landscape, May 2011
Operating
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Considering
Expressing interest
Negative
Delaying
15
IAEA – LOW Projection
900
800
700
GW(e)
600
history
2005
500
2006
2007
400
2008
2009
300
2010
200
100
0
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1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
IAEA – HIGH Projection
900
800
700
GW(e)
600
history
2005
500
2006
2007
400
2008
2009
300
2010
200
100
0
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1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
World Reactors Distribution
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World Reactor Types
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Proposed Nuclear Power Plants
 The number of
planned NPPs for
construction is
based on the low
demand estimate
consistent with the
strategy of
sustaining the
nuclear energy
utilization at the
level of 2007
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Classification of Nuclear Reactors
Generation I
Generation II
Generation III
Generation III+
Generation IV
Early phase:
Shippingport,
Dresden,
Fermi I,
Magnox
Most operating
reactors:
LWR (PWR, BWR),
CANDU, VVER,
RBMK, AGR
Improved
designs:
ABWR, AP600,
System 80+, EPR,
EC6
Evolutionary
design with
improved
economics:
AP1000, EPR1000,
ACR1000
Highly economic,
enhanced safety,
minimize waste,
proliferation
resistant
Gen I
1950
1960
Gen III
Gen II
1970
1980
1990
2000
Gen III+
2010
2020
Many definitions
1. EPRI – Guidelines for developing Third
Generation reactors
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2. WNA - Definition of a Gen III reactor
Gen IV
2030
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Summary of Gen 3(+) Attributes
EPRI:
WNA :
1. Simplification
2. Design Margin
3. Human Factor
4. Safety
5. Design Basis Versus Safety Margin
6. Regulatory Stabilization
7. Standardization
8. Proven Technology
9. Maintainability
10. Constructability
11. Quality Assurance
12. Economics
13. Sabotage Protection and Good
1. Standardized design
2. Simpler and more rugged design
3. Higher availability and longer
operating life
4. Reduced possibility of core melt
accidents
5. Resistance to serious damage
6. Higher burn-up, Burnable
absorbers(“poisons”)
7. Incorporation of passive or
inherent safety features
8. Designed for load-following
9. Harmonized licensing as designs
are more standardized
Neighbour
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Advanced Reactors
Country and
developer
Reactor
US-Japan
(GE-Hitachi, Toshiba)
ABWR
USA
(Westinghouse)
AP600
AP1000
(PWR)
Europe
(Areva NP)
EPR
US-EPR
(PWR)
Size
MWe
gross
Design Progress
Main Features
(improved safety in all)
1380
- Evolutionary design
Commercial operation in Japan since 1996-7. In US: - More efficient, less waste
NRC certified 1997, FOAKE
- Simplified construction (48
months) and operation
600
1200
AP600: NRC certified 1999, FOAKE
AP1000 NRC certification 2005, under construction
in China, many more planned there
Amended US NRC certification expected Sept 2011
- Simplified construction and
operation
- 3 years to build
- 60-year plant life
1750
Future French standard
French design approval
Being built in Finland, France & China
Undergoing certification in USA
- Evolutionary design
- High fuel efficiency
- Flexible operation
USA
(GE- Hitachi)
ESBWR
1600
Developed from ABWR, undergoing certification in
USA, likely construction there
- Evolutionary design
- Short construction time
Japan
(utilities, Mitsubishi)
APWR
US-APWR
EU-APWR
1530
1700
1700
Basic design in progress,
planned for Tsuruga
US design certification application 2008
- Hybrid safety features
- Simplified Construction and
operation
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Advanced Reactors contd.
Country and
developer
Reactor
South Korea
(KHNP, derived from
Westinghouse)
APR-1400
(PWR)
Europe
(Areva NP)
Kerena
(BWR)
Russia (Gidropress)
VVER-1200
(PWR)
Size
MWe
gross
1450
1250
1290
Canada (AECL)
Enhanced
CANDU-6
750
Canada (AECL)
ACR
700
1080
China (INET, Chinergy)
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HTR-PM
Design Progress
Main Features
(improved safety in all)
Design certification 2003, First units expected to be
operating c 2013. Sold to UAE.
- Evolutionary design
- Increased reliability
- Simplified construction and
operation
Under development,
pre-certification in USA
- Innovative design
- High fuel efficiency
- Evolutionary design
Under construction at Leningrad and Novovoronezh
- High fuel efficiency
plants
50-year plant life
Improved model
Licensing approval 1997
- Evolutionary design
- Flexible fuel requirements
- Evolutionary design
Undergoing regulatory pre-project review in Canada - Light water cooling
- Low-enriched fuel
Demonstration plant due to start building at
2x105
Shidaowan
(module)
- Modular plant, low cost
- High temperature
- High fuel efficiency
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IAEA Medium Term Strategy on 2012-2017
“Technological breakthroughs and other
unanticipated events will require adjustments
between 2012 and 2017. The Agency will
position itself to take prompt actions to seize
the advantages of positive opportunities and
minimize the adverse consequences of
unexpected negative developments.”
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Fukushima Potential Impact
 NPP design impact
 Assessment of NPP safety robustness (design margins)
 Improvements of safety systems
 Expanding the DBA list of events and designing against some classes of BDBAs or
combinations of DBAs
 Various NPP design changes for operating NPP, particularly for new builds
 Operational impact
 Assessment and improvements of the operating procedures
 Assessment and improvements of the SAMGs, and implementation of more rigorous
training
 Nuclear energy economy and strategy





Review of NPPs design, construction, operation, and energy cost
Increase of energy cost in general (from all energy sources – global effect)
More stringent requirements for siting of NPPs
Longer schedule for obtaining construction licence and EA approvals
Weakening of commercial interest for some reactor types that do not prove to have
enough safety robustness, or which are not adequately protected against severe
accidents (or not enough passive features)
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WANO & WENRA - Regulatory Changes
 WANO sent a request to all operating NPPs to perform assessment of the
station safety robustness against severe accidents
 WENRA issued a request to perform a “stress test” for all operating and
new build NPPs
 Emphasize on rare severe accidents with high consequences
 Potential regulatory changes
 More stringent regulatory requirements for new NPP designs
 More stringent requirements for operating NPPs and those that are planned for life





extension
More stringent requirements for NPP operation and maintenance
Less tolerance for noncompliance issues in NPP operation
Additional activities by the international regulatory agencies (particularly IAEA, WANO
and WENRA) leading to more stringent monitoring and assessment of NPP design
and operation (periodic safety assessments)
New regulatory requirements and documentation with higher expectations
Reconsidering the event frequency range for DBAs and BDBAs
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WENRA Stress Tests
• Prescribed by the WENRA organization to evaluate NPP design
robustness and safety margins against severe accidents
• Licensees requested to conduct stress tests until Sep 2011; European
Commission will prepare final report by Dec 2011
• Scope
• Initiating events conceivable at the plant state
• Severe earthquake
• Severe flooding
• Other extreme natural events, or combination of the above
• Consequential loss of safety function
• Loss of electrical power, including station blackout (SBO)
• Loss of ultimate heat sink (UHS)
• Combination of the above
• Severe accident management issues
• Means to protect from and manage loss of core cooling function
• Means to protect from and manage loss of cooling function in the spent fuel pool
• Means to protect from and manage loss of containment integrity
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Conclusions
• Nuclear energy is extensively used in the world today as reliable
•
•
•
•
base-load energy
Nuclear energy planning at the low level demand involves building
of significant number of new NPPs around the world
• Highest rate of new builds is expected in Eastern Asia
New advanced reactor designs known as Gen 3 and 3+ have
emerged in recent years
As a result of the Fukushima event in Japan, the advanced reactors
will be subjected to additional level of scrutiny and design
improvements and changes
As a result of the Fukushima event, the regulatory requirements will
become more stringent and demanding
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Thank You for attention
IAEA