Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre
– Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems
Reclaiming leadership in fisheries
January 18, 2012
Dr Henrik Österblom
Stockholm Resilience Centre
We used to be on top of the game
Images from Wikipedia
Now, we have lost the initiative
Limit above which fishing is to intensive
EU
Fishing Pressure
USA
Stock size
Limit below which stock is too small
Data: RAM legacy website, courtesy of Dr Ray Hilborn
Images from NMFS
DECISIONS
Focusing on short-term
economic and social goals
over long-term sustainability
Maintained
Subsidies
A
Sustained
overcapacity
We are trapped in socialecological feedbacks!
DECISIONS
Focusing on short-term
economic and social goals
over long-term sustainability
Maintained
Subsidies
A
Sustained
overcapacity
Unsustainable
quotas
EVIDENCE
Reduced Scientific
legitimacy
B
Decreased quality of
stock assessment
Depleted
stocks
We are trapped in socialecological feedbacks!
DECISIONS
Focusing on short-term
economic and social goals
over long-term sustainability
Maintained
Subsidies
A
Sustained
overcapacity
EVIDENCE
Reduced Scientific
legitimacy
Unsustainable
quotas
Depleted
stocks
C
B
Decreased quality of
stock assessment
COMPLIANCE
Increased incentives to
cheat and reduced
cooperation with science
Reduced
Catch rates
Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy
Reduced
Profitability
Can we learn from the US?
• “Best practice project”: Dec 2008-April 2009
• Literature reviews
• Interviews and workshops with industry, NGO
and policy makers in US, Canada and Norway
• Workshops with European stakeholder
• Report and Scientific publication
• Mike Sissenwine, David Symes, Katarina
Veem, Tim Daw, Martina Kadin and
H.Österblom
Findings
• Evidence
• Decision making
• Compliance
Findings - evidence
• Clear and trusted science
• Integrated, ecosystem assessments
– Regional science centres
• Independent, transparent peer-review of science
• Technology and incentives to provide data
– VMS, video, reduce uncertainty
• Industry funded data collection
– Observers, cost recovery schemes
• Stimulate co-learning processes
– Collaborative research
Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy
Findings – decision making
• Clear rules and guidelines for decision making
• Ecology first!
• Regionalization with industry and NGO
participation
– Regional fisheries management councils responsible
for developing operational management
– Proposed management plans subject to approval by
NMFS (federal agency)
• Transparent decision making process
Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy
Findings - compliance
• Discard ban (Norway and Canada)
• Clear incentives for industry
– Certification, user rights, reducing overcapacity
• Strong compliance mechanisms and
enforcement
• Supply chain tracking
– Enabled by elaborate inter-agency (coast guard,
customs, police, fisheries agency, tax authority)
cooperation
• Legitimacy of decisions through participation
Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy
Will stocks recover with perfect,
science, decisions and
compliance?
• Cod stocks of Newfoundland showing signs of
recovery
• Baltic cod stock showing signs of recovery
• ….after > 20 years….
• Social and ecological time lags..
• Regime shifts
• Climate dependent…
• Emphasize the need to use to available ability
to influence the dynamics of stocks
Regionalization, how will it
improve the knowledge base?
• Facilitate cooperation in existing scientific
networks
• Further build trust between diverse interests
in RACs
• Perform integrated assessments across
scientific disciplines
• Perform collaborative research projects with
stakeholders
• Link fisheries science with ecology, natural
scientists with social scientists, scientists with
stakeholders
Combine fisheries
science and ecology for
integrated advice –
policy coherence with
MSFD
Cury et al. 2011 Science
Regionalization, decision making
and compliance
• Devolve technical aspects to the regions,
member states and fishing industry
• Define principles, standards, goals and
objectives at the EU-level
• Delegate the translation of principles into
management plans to member states
collaborating at the regional level
• This can improve compliance and legitimacy!
Suggestions for regaining the
initiative
•
•
•
•
Ecology first
Clear guidelines for decision making
Clear rules for implementation
A regional approach necessary to take
different social-ecological context in to account
• Give industry room to implement
• Ensure transparency and coherent
enforcement
– but..
• Expect non-linear change and time lags!
Thank you!
Henrik.osterblom@stockholmresilience.su.se