E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
Presentation of the tasks and activity planning
for the work group BioMA
WP 3: BioMA
(Multi-model crop yield estimates)
Roberto Confalonieri & Marcello Donatelli
roberto.confalonieri@unimi.it - www.robertoconfalonieri.it
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
WP 3: Objectives
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Collection of data to properly adapt the BioMA platform to monitoring
and forecasting in China (rice) and Morocco (wheat)
• Calibration of the parameters of the BioMA models (WARM, CropSyst,
WOFOST) for rice in China and wheat in Morocco
• Evaluation of the BioMA suitability for multi-model monitoring and yield
forecasting of rice in China and wheat in Morocco
• Deployment of adapted software platform to local users
Outline
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• WP 3 tasks description
• Scientific issues related with WP 3
• Technology used to meet the project requirements
• Activity planning
Outline
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• WP 3 tasks description
• Scientific issues related with WP 3
• Technology used to meet the project requirements
• Activity planning
WP 3 tasks description
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Task 3.1: Ground data collection for BioMA
• Task 3.2: Adaptation of BioMA for multi-model rice monitoring in China
• Task 3.3: BioMA piloting for multi-model rice monitoring and yield
forecasting in JIANGHUAI Plain, China
• Task 3.4: Adaptation of BioMA for multi-model wheat monitoring in
Morocco
• Task 3.5: BioMA piloting for multi-model wheat monitoring and yield
forecasting in Morocco
Rice, China
Wheat, Morocco
Task 3.1
BioMA adaptation
Task 3.2
Task 3.4
BioMA piloting
Task 3.3
Task 3.5
Task 3.1 description
Task leader: JAAS; partners: JAAS, INRA
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Activity 3.1.1: Identification of the group of cultivars to be calibrated for
the BioMA crop models (WARM, CropSyst, WOFOST)
• Activity 3.1.2: Identification of measurable key variables and parameters
needed for a robust calibration of the BioMA models
• Activity 3.1.3: Collection of data (i) for each group of cultivar [3.1.1], (ii)
for suitable variables [3.1.2], (iii) for different combinations site  year
• Activity 3.1.4: Development of a database for the parameterization and
calibration activities according to specifications provided by Task 3.2
Rice, China
Wheat, Morocco
Task 3.1
BioMA adaptation
Task 3.2
Task 3.4
BioMA piloting
Task 3.3
Task 3.5
Tasks 3.2 & 3.4 description
Task leaders: UNIMI, JRC; partners: UNIMI, JRC
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Activity 3.2(4).1: Spatially distributed sensitivity analysis of the BioMA
models to identify the most relevant parameters
• Activity 3.2(4).2: Parameters calibration for each model and group of
cultivars
• Activity 3.2(4).3: Evaluation of the BioMA models for field-scale
simulations for each group of cultivars
• Activity 3.2(4).4: Evaluation of the BioMA models for large-area
simulations using official yield statistics
Rice, China
Wheat, Morocco
Task 3.1
BioMA adaptation
Task 3.2
Task 3.4
BioMA piloting
Task 3.3
Task 3.5
Tasks 3.3 & 3.5 description
Task leaders: UNIMI, JRC; partners: UNIMI, JRC, JAAS, INRA
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Activity 3.3(5).1: Evaluation of the suitability of the BioMA platform for
rice/wheat monitoring and yield forecasts in China/Morocco
• Activity 3.3(5).2: Evaluation of the usefulness of the multi-model
approach for monitoring and forecasting activities
• Activity 3.3(5).3: Evaluation of possible improvements in monitoring and
forecasting capabilities due to the injection in the models of exogenous
data (i.e., forcing state variables using NDVI or LAI data)
Rice, China
Wheat, Morocco
Task 3.1
BioMA adaptation
Task 3.2
Task 3.4
BioMA piloting
Task 3.3
Task 3.5
Outline
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• WP 3 tasks description
• Scientific issues related with WP 3
• Technology used to meet the project requirements
• Activity planning
Scientific issues
related with WP 3
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• The scientific background we will
start from is represented by the
prototype of rice yield forecasting
system developed by the JRC in
2008 for the whole China
• The steps forward will be represented by:
 the simulation of diseases and abiotic
damages impact on productions (!!!)
 the adoption of a multi-model
approach to crop simulation
 the evaluation of the dynamic use of
remote sensed information to force
crop models state variables
Outline
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• WP 3 tasks description
• Scientific issues related with WP 3
• Technology used to meet the project requirements
• Activity planning
BioMA
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• BioMA is an extensible platform for running biophysical models on
generic spatial units.
• Simulations are carried out on modelling solutions, that are discrete
simulation engines where different models are selected and integrated to
run simulations for a specific goal.
• Each modelling solution makes use of extensible components.
• The guidelines followed during its development aim at maximizing:
 Extensibility with new modelling solutions
 Ease of customization in new environment
 Ease of deployment
BioMA
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Since the lack of a real modules reuse has been one of the main reasons
that delayed model development in the last decades, the component
oriented programming paradigm was followed.
• Modules are therefore implemented in generic (framework-independent)
software units (i.e., components).
• A component can be defined as: “A unit of composition with contractually
specified interfaces and explicit context dependencies only. A software
component can be deployed independently and is subject by composition
by third parties”.
• The component-based paradigm strongly push scientists to think of
models in modular terms
BioMA
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• A modular conceptualization of models allows:
 An easier transfer of research results into operational tools;
 The comparison of different approaches;
 A greater transparency;
 More rapid application development;
 Re-use of models of known quality;
 Independent extensibility by third parties;
 Avoiding duplications.
BioMA
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
Modelling solutions
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Six modelling solutions will be developed and evaluated within E-AGRI
 Rice in China: multi-model simulations with and without forcing the
models with RS data
 WARM (Confalonieri et al., 2010)
 WOFOST (Van Keulen and Wolf, 1986)
 CropSyst (Stöckle et al., 2003)
 Wheat in Morocco: multi-model simulations
 WOFOST
 CropSyst
Modelling solutions
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Each modelling solutions will include models for:
 Crop growth and development (CropML and CropML_WL)
 Soil water dynamics (SoilRE and SoilW)
 Diseases (DiseasesProgress, ImpactsOnPlant, BlastDiseases)
 Abiotic damages (AbioticDamage)
 Forcing models state variables with exogenous data (i.e., NDVI or
NDVI-derived leaf area index) (used only for rice in China) (Forcing)
 Micrometeorology (TRIS)
• Each modelling solution performs simulation for different production
levels, keeping separated the outputs of the levels themselves
Modelling solutions
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
Example:
• Rice
• South America
 potential
 water limited
 diseases limited
 abiotic damage
Components
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• Most of these components are already developed
and operationally used within different projects
related with crop monitoring and yield forecasting,
food security, and evaluation of the impact of
climate change
Supporting tools
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• BioMA is provided with supporting tools (extensible and re-usable outside
BioMA) for developers and users:
• LUISA: Monte Carlo based sensitivity analysis, implementing 7 sensitivity
analysis methods;
• Optimizer: Automatic calibration extensible for objective functions and
solvers. It currently implements different solvers based on the downhill
simplex (Nelder and Mead, 1965);
• IMMA: model evaluation based on simple and composite metrics for
quantifying model performances and complexity
Example of spatially
distributed sensitivity analysis
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
Example of spatially
distributed sensitivity analysis
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
Data display
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
Maps and time series
Outline
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
• WP 3 tasks description
• Scientific issues related with WP 3
• Technology used to meet the project requirements
• Activity planning
Activity planning
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
GANTT diagram for the whole WP 3
ID Task
Activities
2011
2012
2013
2014
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1 3.1
Ground data collection for BioMA
2 3.2
Adaptation of BioMA for multimodel monitoring in JIANGHUAI
Plain, China
3 3.3
BioMA piloting for multi-model rice
monitoring and yield forecasting in
JIANGHUAI Plain, China
4 3.4
Adaptation of BioMA for multi
model wheat monitoring in Morocco
5 3.5
BioMA piloting for multi-model
wheat monitoring and yield
forecasting in Morocco
Activity planning
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
ID Task
2011
Activities
2012
2013
2014
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
GANTT diagram for Task 3.1
ID
2011
WP 3.1
Mar
Identification of the cv to be
calibrated for BioMA crop
1
models (WARM, WOFOST,
CropSyst)
Identification of the parameters
2 needed to calibrate BioMA crop
models
3
Collection of data for each
group of cv
4
Organization of data as required
by WP 3.2
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
1 3.1
Ground data collection for BioMA
2 3.2
Adaptation of BioMA for multimodel monitoring in JIANGHUAI
Plain, China
3 3.3
BioMA piloting for multi-model rice
monitoring and yield forecasting in
JIANGHUAI Plain, China
4 3.4
Adaptation of BioMA for multi
model wheat monitoring in Morocco
5 3.5
BioMA piloting for multi-model
wheat monitoring and yield
forecasting in Morocco
2012
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2013
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2014
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Activity planning
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
ID Task
2011
Activities
2012
2013
2014
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
GANTT diagram for Tasks 3.2 and 3.4
ID
2011
WP 3.2 – WP 3.4
Mar
1
Sensitivity analysis of the
BioMA models for rice/wheat to
identify most important
parameters
2
Calibration of parameters for
each cv and crop model
Evaluation of BioMA models for
3 field-scale simulation of rice/
wheat
Evaluation of BioMA models for
4 large area simulation of rice/
wheat
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
1 3.1
Ground data collection for BioMA
2 3.2
Adaptation of BioMA for multimodel monitoring in JIANGHUAI
Plain, China
3 3.3
BioMA piloting for multi-model rice
monitoring and yield forecasting in
JIANGHUAI Plain, China
4 3.4
Adaptation of BioMA for multi
model wheat monitoring in Morocco
5 3.5
BioMA piloting for multi-model
wheat monitoring and yield
forecasting in Morocco
2012
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2013
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2014
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Activity planning
E-AGRI kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)
ID Task
2011
Activities
2012
2013
2014
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
GANTT diagram for Tasks 3.3 and 3.5
ID
2011
WP 3.3 – WP 3.5
Mar
Testing suitability of BioMA
1 platform for rice/wheat
monitoring and yield forecasting
2
Evaluating the usefulness of the
multi-model approach
Evaluating possible
improvement of the system via
3
forcing crop models with remote
sensed data
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
1 3.1
Ground data collection for BioMA
2 3.2
Adaptation of BioMA for multimodel monitoring in JIANGHUAI
Plain, China
3 3.3
BioMA piloting for multi-model rice
monitoring and yield forecasting in
JIANGHUAI Plain, China
4 3.4
Adaptation of BioMA for multi
model wheat monitoring in Morocco
5 3.5
BioMA piloting for multi-model
wheat monitoring and yield
forecasting in Morocco
2012
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2013
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2014
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
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Jan
Feb
Mar
…Thank you for your kind attention