Technology
Forecasting
Introduction to
Technology Forecasting
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 1
Lecture 1
 What
is Technology?
 The Evolution of Technology
 Technology Forecasting
 Technology Forecasting Taxonomies
 Objectives of Technology Forecasting
 The Need for Experts
 Dr. DeYong on NGT and Delphi
Technology Forecasting
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What is Technology?
There is much ambiguity in the use of
the term “technology”
 In one sense technology embodies the
totality of the way we do things.


Webster’s 7th Collegiate Dictionary defines
technology as “the totality of the means employed
to provide objects necessary for human
subsistence and comfort”.
Technology Forecasting
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What is Technology?


“Western Technology” refers to the totality of the
way things are done in the Western nations of the
world.
This is not the way we will use the term.
 In
another sense, technology has a more
restricted definition


“the tools, techniques, and procedures used to
accomplish some desired human purpose”.
For example, metal cutting technology or nuclear
power technology.
Technology Forecasting
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What is Technology?

This more restricted definition is more suitable for
our purposes.
 Technology
includes not only goods but
also services
 Technology is not restricted to
hardware, it also may includes “knowhow” and “software”
Technology Forecasting
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The Evolution of Technology
 Prior


technology could be differentiated from other
human activities by its direct involvement with
the material world
Persons involved in technology shaped and
altered their physical environment


to the 19th century
Other forms of activities, like politics, were clearly
distinguishable from technology
Technological activities did not have particularly
high status; artisans were considered inferior

contemplative activities were glorified
Technology Forecasting
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The Evolution of Technology
 By
the end of the 19th Century
Physical sciences began to influence
technology
 laboratories were a source of invention
 scientific grounding added credibility to
technology

 Science
and Technology became
partners to the benefit of both
Technology Forecasting
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The Evolution of Technology
 During
the early 20th Century
Large laboratories emerged; often they
were mission oriented
 Science and technology became
institutionalized as a means to achieve
National and corporate objectives

Technology Forecasting
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The Evolution of Technology
 Post
World War II
Advances in applied mathematics lead to
the emergence of operations research,
information theory, and systems
engineering
 In conjunction with the growth of
computing power, the information
revolution was sparked

Technology Forecasting
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The Evolution of Technology
 At
the end of the 20th Century
the line distinguishing technology from
other activities has become blurred
 technology is becoming a measure of
national power
 Technology leads to competitive advantage

aerospace, chemicals & plastics, petrochemicals
 drugs, electronics, engines, machines,
 computers, radio, tv, telecommunications

Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
 Three
definitions of technology
forecasting from leading experts
 Technology forecasting is

A group of techniques that predict the
direction, character, rate, implication, and
impact of technological advances

Vanston
Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting

A prediction of the future characteristics of
useful machines, procedures, or techniques


Martino
Anticipation of the character, intensity, and
timing of changes in technology

Porter
Technology Forecasting
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Can Technology be Forecast?
 Three
rationales support the claim that
technology can be forecast

Examination of the historical growth of
technological capability (speed, power,
etc.) shows surprisingly ordered patterns
continuity seems to be the norm
 discontinuities are rare


This leads to trend extrapolation
techniques
Technology Forecasting
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Can Technology be Forecast?

Technological development responds to
opportunity and need
It is also sensitive to allocation of resources and
social control through regulation
 By monitoring influencing factors, progress can
be anticipated


This leads correlation techniques
Technology Forecasting
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Can Technology be Forecast?

Understanding the process of technological
innovation aids in successful prediction of
technological development
Orderly progression of emergence
 New knowledge acquired
 Technology emerges from lab
 Technology is field tested
 Technology is commercialized
 Technology is widely adopted

Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
in Context
 Technology
forecasting has not attained
the level of “laws”
 It is still more art than science
inherent complexity of the systems
 social, political, economic, ethical
influences
 lack of significant data bases

 Experts
Technology Forecasting
are required
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Technology Forecasting
Taxonomies
 There
are multiple ways to classify
technology forecasting techniques

Exploratory vs. Normative
Exploratory techniques seek to predict the state
of a technology area in the future
 Normative techniques seek to determine
courses of action to achieve a postulated future
state

Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
Taxonomies
 Porter,

Direct


directly forecast parameters of the technology
Correlative


et al. suggest
forecast growth or change by forecasting
elements in the technology’s context
Structural

formally consider interactions between the
technology and its context
Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
Taxonomies
 Kostoff

Bibliometric or literature based methods


suggests:
data mining from large databases followed by
application of visualization and analysis tools
Workshop methods

groups of subject matter experts who interact
under the auspices of nominal group
techniques (e.g., the Delphi procedure) to
develop scenarios and forecasts the evolution
of technology
Technology Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting
Taxonomies
 Vanston

Surveillance


Future will be like the past
Normative


Passive observational techniques
Projective


suggests:
future needs drive technological development
Integrative

advances are driven by relationships
Technology Forecasting
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Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
 The
first step in a technology
forecasting project is to determine the
purpose the forecast is to serve.
 Vanston suggests five purposes

Projections of the rates at which new
technologies will replace older ones

Important to companies dependent on the old
as well as the new technology
Technology Forecasting
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Objectives for Technology
Forecasting

Assistance in the Management of Technical
Research and Development


Forecasting the technology emergence process
can facilitate allocation of R&D resources
Evaluation of the Present Value of
Technology Under Development

Forecasting the commercial value of a
technology in the development process
Technology Forecasting
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Objectives for Technology
Forecasting

Identification and Evaluation of New
Products or Processes that May Present the
Organization with New Opportunities or
Threats

Forecasting new business opportunities or
threats to present markets
Technology Forecasting
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Objectives for Technology
Forecasting

Analysis of New Technical Developments
that Might Change Organizational
Strategies or Operations

Forecasting technology changes that might
change the internal operations of the
organization itself.
Technology Forecasting
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The Need for Experts
 Gathering
and analyzing the opinions
of experts is an important activity.
 Three types of experts are valuable in
technology forecasting
generalists with a spread of interests and
perceptions
 persons with deep knowledge of the area
 persons whose present or future actions may be
affected

Technology Forecasting
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What’s Next
 Next,
we will review some material
developed by Dr. Camille DeYong, who
is an expert in nominal group
techniques and the Delphi process, to
see how these techniques can be useful
with respect to technology forecasting
applications.
 But First…...
Technology Forecasting
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Assignment 1
 Assignment
1 is available on the web
Identify a technology important to your
business
 Identify search criteria
 Identify search sources
 Conduct Search on at least two sources


 Due
Identify 3 key articles and 3 leading experts
in two weeks
Technology Forecasting
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