Sixth Five Year Plan of Bangladesh
(2011-15)
Presentation by
Dr. Muhammad G. Sarwar
at
Civil Service College, Dhaka
14 June 2011
1
Presentation Contents
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PRSP: a critique
PRSP versus Mid-Term (5 Year) Plan
Growth Performance of the
Bangladesh Economy in different Plan
periods
Sixth Five Year Plan of Bangladesh
2011 -2015
2
PRSP: a critique
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PRSP is an externally (WB & IMF)
induced document
Theoretical underpinning of PRSP is
‘Washington Consensus’ based liberal
market economics where role of state
in development is minimal
Expected support for implementation
of PRSP is not being fulfilled
3
PRSP versus Mid-Term (5 Year) Plan
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PRSP is a development strategy document,
not a development plan document
In PRSP market mechanism is the driving
force of development, where as in 5 Year
Plan Governments play crucial role in
development
PRSP is stakeholders participation based
development framework, where as 5 Year
Plan is a technical document based on
CGEM, IOM, SAM. etc
4
Growth Performance of the Bangladesh
Economy in different Plan periods
Plan Periods
GDP Growth Realized
Targets (%) Growth (%)
First Five Year Plan (1973-78)
5.5
4.0
Two Year Plan (1978-1980)
5.6
3.5
2nd Five Year Plan (1980-1985)
5.4
3.8
3rd Five Tear Plan (1985-1990)
5.4
3.8
4th Five Year Plan (1990-1995)
5.0
4.2
5th Five Year Plan (1997-2002)
7.0
5.2
2003 - 2005
-
5.5
2006 - 2009
-
5.3
5
Sixth FYP as First Phase of
Perspective Plan 2010 - 2021

Perspective Plan 2010 -2021 would
be implemented in two phased by
preparing and implementing two
Five Year Plans:
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
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011 – 2015; and
Seventh Five Year Plan 2016 - 2020
6
Preparation of
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15
Technical Framework
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an input–output table (with base set
at FY 06 or FY 07);
a macroeconomic consistency model
of SFYP based on the input-output
framework; and
an employment matrix
18 background studies
7
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15:
the concept note
Major sources for setting SFYP development goals
and targets:
 Constitution of the People’s Republic of
Bangladesh (Articles 9–20);
 Election Manifesto of the Bangladesh Awami
League 2008; and
 Agreed global and regional development goals
like MDGs and SDGs.
8
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: targets
Important targets set for the economy are:
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Secure and sustain an annual level of GDP growth of 8
percent by 2013 and raise it to 10 percent from 2017;
Bring down the percentage of disadvantaged people living
below the poverty line to 15 percent by 2021;
Ensure a minimum of 2,122 k. cal/person/day of food to all
poor people and standard nutritional food to at least 85
percent of the population by 2021;
Ensure 100 percent net enrolment at primary level by 2010,
provide free tuition up to the degree level by 2013, attain
full literacy by 2014, and ensure that Bangladesh is known
as a country of educated people with skills in information
technology;
9
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: targets (contd.)
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Achieve self sufficiency in food by 2012;
Ensure living accommodation for the entire population
by 2015, supply of pure drinking water for the entire
population by 2011, and bring each house under
hygienic sanitation by 2013;
Eliminate all kinds of contagious diseases and increase
life expectancy of citizens to 70 years by 2021;
Reduce maternal mortality to 1.5 percent, raise the use
of birth control methods to 80 percent, and bring down
infant mortality to 15 per thousand live births by 2021;
Change the sectoral composition of output with the
shares of agriculture, industry, and services standing at
15 percent, 40 percent, and 45 percent respectively in
2021;
10
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: targets
(contd.)
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Reduce underemployment rate to 15
percent along with changing employment
shares of agriculture, industry, and
services to 30 percent, 25 percent, and
45 percent respectively in 2021;
Generate 7,000 megawatt of electricity by
2013, raise it to 8,000 megawatt in 2015,
and make provision to meet the expected
demand for power of 20,000 megawatt in
2021.
11
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: approach
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Inclusive Economic Growth
Enhancing Economic Growth
Employment Creation
Universal Social Protection for the Hardcore Poor
Role of Market, State and Community in Economic
Growth
Public–Private Partnership (PPP)
Regional and Sub-Regional Planning
Gender Responsive Plan
Technology Base for ‘Digital Bangladesh’
12
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15: approach
(contd.)
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Human Resource Development
Environment and Climate Change
Good Governance, Human Rights and
Democratic Polity
Operational Linkage between Planning and
Budgeting
Regional / Sub-Regional Economic Integration
Least-Cost National Security
Implementation and Monitoring
13
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15:
background studies
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A Study on Macroeconomic Framework and Financial
Sector Development for the Sixth Five Year Plan;
A Review of Fiscal and Other Macro Incentives in the
Manufacturing Sector: Implications for Future Policies;
A Study on SMEs Development in Bangladesh with
emphasis on Policy Constraints and Financing;
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Development in
Bangladesh and Issues in Privatization of SOEs;
A Study on Power and Energy Development and
Management: Benchmark Analysis and Future Policies;
A Study on Crop Agriculture and Agrarian Reforms in
Bangladesh: Present Status and Future Options
14
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15:
background studies (contd.)
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A Study on Developing Non-Crop Agriculture in
Bangladesh: Present Status and Future Development;
A Study on Strategies for Coping with Climate Change,
Environment sustainability, and Natural Disasters in
Bangladesh;
Alternative Modes of Financing for the Sixth Five Year
Plan;
A Study on the National Security in Bangladesh:
Strategies and Cost Effectiveness
A Study on Employment and the Labor Marker: A Guide to
Employment Policies for the Sixth Five Year Plan;
A Study on Education and HRD: Quality and Management
Issues in Bangladesh;
15
Sixth Five Year Plan 2011-15:
background studies (contd.)
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A Study on Universal Social Protection Strategy: Hard Core
Poverty and Safety Nets Programs in Bangladesh;
A Study on Health, Nutrition, and Population Planning in
Bangladesh;
Emerging Issues in Income Growth of Rural Households,
Development of Non-Farm Activities and Safety Net
Provisions;
A Study on Export Promotion and External Issues: Present
Status and Future Developments;
Towards Digital Bangladesh: Prospects and Constraints in
Developing ICT Sector; and
Urbanization Management and Emerging Regional Disparity
in Bangladesh: Policies and Strategies for Decentralized
Economic Growth.
16
Alternative GDP Growth Scenarios
in the 6th FYP
Growth Scenarios FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY11-15
average
Baseline Scenario
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1
6.7
Medium Policy
Shift Scenario
6.5
6.7
7.0
7.5
8.0
7.2
High Policy Shift
Scenario
6.5
7.2
8.0
8.5
9.0
7.8
17
Alternative GDP Growth Scenarios
in the 6th FYP
18
Macroeconomic Parameters under
alternative Growth Scenarios in 6th FYP
Parameter
(in %)
200509
Baseline
policy
Mid Policy
shift
High Policy
shift
Investment – GDP
ratio
24.5
23.4 - 26.1
25.0 -30.2
25.4 -32.0
Revenue – GDP
ratio
10.4
11.4 - 13.2
11.7 -13.3
11.8 – 14.0
Public Exp. – GDP
ratio
14.2
16.4 – 18.1
16.6 – 17.6
17.0 – 18.7
Export – GDP ratio
16.2
18.0 – 18.8
18.0 – 19.1
18.3 – 20.3
Import - GDP ratio
21.4
22.7 – 24.3
22.8 – 25.1
23.2 – 27.2
National savings –
GDP ratio
29.0
31.7 – 32.0
32.5 – 34.5
33.6 – 35.7
19
Sectoral Growth Prospects for the Sixth
Plan
Sector
2008-09 FY11-15
Baseline
FY11-15
Mid Policy
shift
FY11-15
High Policy
shift
Agriculture
3.4
3.5
4.1
4.4
Industry
7.2
8.2
8.5
9.1
Services
6.1
7.0
7.4
7.9
GDP
5.9
6.7
7.2
7.8
20
Sectoral Growth Prospects for the
Sixth Plan
21
Macroeconomic Balances under Baseline Growth Scenario
for SFYP
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY11-15
Real GDP growth
(%)
5.8
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1
6.7
Inflation (%)
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.4
G. Investment
(B. Tk)
1608.3 1816.3
2055.4 2333.7 2681.5
3110.8 2399.5
National Savings
(B. Tk)
2268.1 2453.1
2689.2 3013.5 3371.3
3810.9 3067.6
Govt. Revenue
(B. Tk)
769.7
1023.2 1181.1 1363.6
1572.1 1205.3
Govt. Exp.
(B. Tk)
1120.2 1272.6
1444.4 1649.9 1885.0
2154.3 1681.2
Export (B. US $)
17.6
19.6
21.9
24.5
27.4
30.9
24.9
Import (B. US $)
22.0
24.7
27.7
31.3
35.5
40.3
31.9
Remittance
(B. US $)
10.7
11.8
13.4
15.0
16.5
18.1
15.0
886.5
22
Macroeconomic Balances under Mid Policy shift Growth
Scenario for SFYP
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY11-15
Real GDP
growth (%)
5.8
6.5
6.7
7.0
7.5
8.0
7.1
Inflation (%)
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.9
6.9
6.7
G. Investment
(b.tk)
1608.3 1932.6 2303.8 2745.1 3272.5
3895.5
2830.0
National
Savings (b. tk)
2268.1 2511.4 2970.6 3355.0 3874.8
4457.6
3433.9
Govt. Revenue
(b.tk)
769.7
1061.7 1247.9 1466.3
1722.6
1280.5
Govt. Exp.
(b. tk)
1120.2 1283.9 1474.6 1696.9 1961.1
2270.9
1737.5
903.8
Export (b. us$) 17.6
19.8
22.5
25.6
29.5
34.4
26.4
Import
(b. us$)
22.0
25.0
28.9
33.3
38.6
45.2
34.2
Remittance
(b. us$)
10.7
11.9
13.2
14.9
17.0
18.2
15.1
23
Macroeconomic Balances under High Policy shift Growth
Scenario for SFYP
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY11-15
Real GDP
growth (%)
5.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
8.5
9.0
7.8
Inflation (%)
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
G. Investment
(b. tk)
1608.3 1959.8 2475.0 2991.2 3542.2
4188.1
3031.3
National
Savings (b. tk)
2268.1 2592.6 3106.8 3568.0 4110.0
4679.9
3611.5
Govt. Revenue
(b. tk)
769.7
1095.2 1312.4 1558.1
1839.8
1343.7
Govt. Exp. (b.
tk)
1120.2 1313.6 1537.5 1798.2 2098.8
2448.2
1839.3
913.1
Export (b. us$) 17.6
20.1
23.0
26.7
31.3
36.9
27.6
Import (b.
us$)
22.0
25.5
29.9
35.3
41.7
49.6
36.4
Remittance (b.
us$)
10.7
12.1
14.2
16.5
18.8
22.7
16.9
24
Areas of Improvement for higher Growth
during SFYP
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Private sector will play the prime role;
Public investment and policies shall create
necessary investment climate in areas like:


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Energy supply including electricity and gas;
Infrastructure including roads, railways,
embankment and dykes;
Telecommunication;
Ports;
Legal and administrative system including property
rights;
Project implementation capacity;
Governance including law and order;
Market incentives; and
Sound monetary policy and public finance
management
25
Thanks
26