The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013 Welcome Dr. Ronald Uhlig Dean, School of Business and Management Introduction Dr. Michael R. Cunningham President, National University Chancellor, National University System Presentation Kelly Cunningham Senior Fellow and Economist, National University System The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013 Kelly Cunningham Economist, Senior Fellow www.nusinstitute.org The State of the San Diego Economy: • • • • Great Recession “ended” in 2009 National indicators of recovery State and regional indicators San Diego’s economic interdependence and independence/strengths and weaknesses – Industries – Jobs • San Diego demographics • Our economic outlook: opportunities – San Diego region – National University – Individual Debt Limit/Default – October 17, 2013 • If we hit this date without raising the debt limit the U.S. is not going to automatically default on the debt. – At this time, the Treasury would have to start prioritizing payments, meaning picking and choosing who gets paid first. • If a government default occurs, it will be due to the government’s unwillingness to pay, not on ability to pay. – There is plenty of cash on hand to make debt obligation payments, but there is not enough money to pay for all government programs. Congress should eliminate programs that can’t be justified – Raising the debt limit amounts to putting off paying the government’s bills. • Borrowing more and going further into debt only perpetuates the day of reckoning when we lose the world reserve currency status. – This would be the most traumatic event that could happen to the US, worse than Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the 2008 financial collapse; and we are dangerously approaching this possibility. • “The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies.” - Senator Barack Obama, 2006 U.S. Job Loss and Recovery U.S. Unemployment Rate Employment Population Ratio, Participation Rate Alternative measures of labor underutilization 3rd Qtr, 2012 through 2nd Qtr 2013 Averages U-1: Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force. U-2: Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force. U-3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate). U-4: Total unemployed plus discouraged workers. U-5: Includes U-4 plus all other marginally attached workers. U-6: Includes U-5 plus total employed part time for economic reasons. State United States Nevada California Rhode Island Mississippi New Jersey North Carolina Illinois Michigan Georgia Oregon Substate areas: Los Angeles County New York City SAN DIEGO COUNTY U-1 4.2 6.1 5.4 5.6 5.0 5.7 5.4 5.3 4.9 5.1 4.2 U-2 4.2 5.9 5.2 5.5 4.7 5.2 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.8 Measure U-3 U-4 7.8 8.3 10.4 11.3 9.5 10.1 9.5 9.9 9.3 9.9 9.1 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.0 9.5 8.9 9.5 8.8 9.6 8.7 9.0 U-5 9.2 12.5 11.1 10.7 11.1 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.6 10.5 9.9 U-6 14.3 19.0 18.3 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 16.1 16.1 15.6 16.9 6.0 5.7 10.3 11.0 12.0 20.5 5.9 5.4 8.8 9.8 10.9 15.1 8.2 est. 16.3 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. San Diego U-6 estimate by National University System Institute for Policy Research. Unemployment rate- labor underutilization 18 16 Unemployment rate 14 12 10 8 6 4 Unemployed plus marginally attached and employed part-time for economic reasons (U-6) 2 Unemployed rate (U-3) 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change in U.S. Employment by Age Index: Jan 2007=100 130 125 55 years and over 120 25 to 54 years 55+ year olds: 34% of workers in 2013 115 110 55+ year olds: 25% of workers in 2007 105 100 95 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Unemployment Rate Comparison 12.0% California 11.0% SAN DIEGO 10.0% United States 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Seasonally Adjusted 9.0% San Diego Metropolitan Area Gross Domestic Product GDP Year (Billions) 2001 $114.475 2002 $123.271 2003 $131.024 2004 $141.494 2005 $151.388 2006 $159.582 2007 $166.017 2008 $167.732 2009 $163.644 2010 $163.875 2011 $169.888 2012 $177.410 2013e $185.416 Percent of Calif. U.S. 8.54% 1.08% 8.89% 1.12% 8.97% 1.14% 9.01% 1.15% 8.96% 1.16% 8.87% 1.15% 8.87% 1.15% 8.83% 1.14% 9.00% 1.14% 8.88% 1.10% 8.90% 1.09% 8.86% 1.09% 8.86% 1.10% Constant Dollars* S.D. Cal. U.S. 1.3% 0.1% 0.9% 5.2% 1.9% 1.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.8% 5.1% 4.6% 3.8% 3.8% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2% 3.3% 2.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% -0.8% -0.4% -0.3% -4.5% -5.1% -2.8% -0.4% 0.3% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 1.8% 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% *Adjusted by GDP implicit price deflator. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.Department of Commerce; e: estimate by National University System Institute for Policy Research. Ranking of Gross Domestic Products 2012 U.S. Dollars Rank Countries WORLD 1 UNITED STATES 2 China 3 Japan 4 Germany 5 France 6 United Kingdom 7 Brazil 8 Russia 9 Italy CALIFORNIA 10 India 11 Canada 12 Australia 13 Spain 14 Mexico 15 South Korea 16 Indonesia 17 Turkey 18 Netherlands 19 Saudi Arabia 20 Switzerland 21 Iran 22 Sweden 23 Norway 24 Poland 25 Belgium 26 Argentina 27 Taiwan 28 Austria 29 South Africa 30 United Arab Emirates (billions) $72,216 16,245 8,221 5,960 3,430 2,614 2,477 2,253 2,030 2,014 2,003 1,842 1,821 1,543 1,324 1,177 1,130 879 788 771 711 631 549 524 500 490 484 475 474 395 384 384 Rank 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Countries Venezuela Colombia Thailand Denmark Malaysia Singapore Nigeria Chile Hong Kong Israel Egypt Philippines Greece Finland Pakistan Iraq Portugal Ireland Algeria Kazakhstan Peru Czech Republic Qatar Kuwait SAN DIEGO Ukraine New Zealand Romania Vietnam Hungary Bangladesh Angola (billions) $381.3 369.0 366.0 314.9 303.7 276.5 270.2 268.2 263.3 257.5 256.7 250.2 249.2 247.6 225.6 212.5 212.4 210.4 209.3 202.7 198.9 195.7 192.4 184.5 177.4 176.2 169.8 169.4 155.6 125.7 123.0 115.2 Source: International Monetary Fund; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; National University System Institute for Policy Research. Comparison of Annual Change in GDP SAN DIEGO, California, U.S. 5.0% 4.0% Adjusted for Inflation 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% SAN DIEGO -3.0% California -4.0% United States -5.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. e: estimate, f: forecast by National University System Institute for Policy Research. San Diego GDP by Industry - 2012 Trade 10.6% Manufacturing 8.5% Health care, social assist Finance, insurance 5.8% 5.0% Transportation, utilities 3.6% Information 3.5% Professional, business services 15.8% Real estate, rental, leasing 17.4% Government 17.8% Accommodations, food services 3.5% Construction 3.2% Other services 2.3% Educational services 1.2% Arts, entertainment, Natural resources, recreation mining 1.0% .5% 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f Defense Spending Percent of San Diego GDP 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% San Diego GDP by Industry: 2001-12 Natural resources, mining Educational services Arts, entertainment, recreation Other services $25.0 Accommodations, food serivces Construction $20.0 $15.0 Information Finance, insurance Manufacturing $10.0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 $0.0 Professional, bus services Government 2003 Trade 2002 $5.0 2001 Chained 2005 Dollars (billions) $30.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National University System Institute of Policy Research. Real estate, rental, leasing San Diego GDP by Industry Trade 10.6% Professional, business services 15.8% Real estate, rental, leasing 17.4% Industry Health care, social All industry total assist Finance, insurance Real estate, rental, leasing 5.8% 5.0% Manufacturing Transportation, utilities Transportation, 8.5% utilities Information 3.6% Manufacturing Information Government 3.5% Finance, insurance Accommodations, Professional, business services Trade food services 3.5% Construction Construction Health care, social assistance 3.2% Natural resources, mining Other services Arts, entertainment, recreation 2.3% Educational services Educational Accommodations, food services services Government Other services 1.2% 17.8% GDP Jobs Production (millions) (000s) per Job $169,888 1,833 $92,700 30,621 103 297,600 5,764 36 188,800 5,821 31 159,000 13,488 102 132,700 31,327 333 94,000 7,573 87 87,200 27,865 326 85,500 17,280 220 78,500 5,609 81 69,200 10,108 154 65,800 891 21 43,200 1,860 46 43,200 1,786 43 40,000 5,718 143 40,000 4,177 107 39,000 Arts, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. entertainment, Natural resources, recreation mining 1.0% Finance, insurance .5% 4.7% Manufacturing 5.5% Health care, social assistance 8.4% Employment by Industry Transportation, utilities 2.0% Information 1.7% Accommodations, food services 7.8% Trade 12.0% Construction 4.4% Other services 5.8% Professional, business services 17.8% Government 18.2% Real estate, rental, leasing 5.6% Educational services 2.3% Arts, entertainment, Natural resources,recreation 2.5% mining 1.1% Location Quotient • Location quotient (LQ) is a way of quantifying how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to the nation. – It can reveal what makes a particular region unique in comparison to the national average. • Location Quotient formula = (SD industry employment / SD total employment) (U.S. Industry employment / U.S. total employment) • LQ > 1.0 San Diego has higher concentration of production or employment the national average. • LQ = 1.0 San Diego has the same share of regional production or employment as the nation. • LQ < 1.0 San Diego has a lower concentration of production or employment the national average. San Diego Location Quotient by Industry Industry Government-federal military Real estate, rental, leasing Government-federal civilian Professional, scientific, technical Manufacturing-Durable goods Accommodation, food services Arts, entertainment, recreation Administrative, waste management Trade Information Other services Construction Government-state, local Educational services Health care, social assistance Transportation, utilities Management companies, enterprises Finance, insurance Manufacturing-Nondurable goods Natural resources, mining 2001 7.29 1.37 1.47 1.25 0.69 1.15 1.00 0.95 0.88 1.02 1.10 1.18 1.02 0.74 0.77 0.46 0.89 0.65 0.39 0.44 2012 4.97 2.39 1.35 1.35 1.24 1.11 1.05 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.79 0.75 0.70 0.68 0.59 0.45 0.20 Change (2.32) 1.02 (0.12) 0.10 0.55 (0.04) 0.04 0.01 0.03 (0.12) (0.21) (0.31) (0.16) 0.05 (0.02) 0.24 (0.20) (0.05) 0.06 (0.24) San Diego, California, U.S. Jobs Nonfarm payroll employment seasonally adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Index: Jan2002=1.00 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00 SAN DIEGO 0.98 U.S. 0.96 California Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; California Employment Development Department; National University System Institute for Policy Research. 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 0.94 Nonfarm Payroll Industry Jobs 1,310,000 1,300,000 Seasonally Adjusted 1,290,000 1,280,000 1,270,000 1,260,000 1,250,000 1,240,000 1,230,000 1,220,000 1,210,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: California Employment Development Department; National University System Institute for Policy Research. 2013 Change in San Diego Jobs by Industry Sectors, August 2012- August 2013 Accommodation, Food Services Health Care, Social Assistance Management, Admin, Support Trade (Retail, Wholesale) State & Local Government Educational Services Transportation, Warehousing, Utils Construction Professional, Scientific, Technical Other Services Natural resources, mining Information Finance, Insurance Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Federal Government Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Manufacturing -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Manufacturing Employment 125,000 120,000 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 90,000 Aerospace 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 5,000 Shipbuilding 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change in Jobs among Top-Five San Diego DefenseDependent Industries vs. All Other Private Sector Industries 1.08 Federal budget deliberations 1.07 Other private sector industries Defense-dependent industries 1.06 Index: Jan 2011= 1.00 1.05 Fiscal cliff -sequestration deliberations Aug 2012 Debt-limit deliberations Aug 2011 1.04 1.03 1.02 Sequestration implementation starting Mar 2013 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 2011 2012 2013 Professional, Scientific, Technical Services 125,000 120,000 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 90,000 San Diego International Trade with Mexico and Rest of the World Exports to rest of world Billions $30.0 $25.0 Imports from rest of world Exports to Mexico $20.0 Imports from Mexico $15.0 $10.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division; National University System Institute for Policy Research. 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 $0.0 2002 2001 2000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 $5.0 San Diego Industry Employment Change 1.02 Index: 1Q2008=100.0 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 Technology Sectors Total, All Industries 0.92 Private Industry e: estimate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Qe 1Qe 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 0.90 2013 San Diego technology companies account for: Average Wage (2012) Establishments: 6% Employment: 11% San Diego (overall) $54,000 Payrolls: 21% Average Wage: 190% Tech Average $102,600 San Diego Technology Employment by Sector 30,000 Pharma/biotech/ medical Communications Equipment Mfg Software 25,000 Biotechnology, Pharmaceutical Defense and Transportation Computer, Electronics Environmental Technology Other Technical Consulting Srvs Biomedical Products Recreational Goods 20,000 15,000 10,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Qe 1Qe 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 0 1Q 5,000 2013 Source: National University System Institute for Policy Research, based upon California Employment Development Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Health Care & Social Assistance 130,000 125,000 120,000 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 90,000 Leisure and Hospitality 120,000 100,000 80,000 Food Service, Drinking Accommodations Amusements Air Transportation 60,000 40,000 20,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 85,000 83,000 81,000 79,000 77,000 75,000 73,000 71,000 69,000 67,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 65,000 Construction Employment 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 50,000 San Diego Businesses/Employers by Number of Employees Businesses/Employers Small <50 95% Mid 50-249 3.9% Large 250+ 0.6% Mid 50-249 29% Large 250+ 33% Year Total 2008 98,941 2009 95,908 2010 97,489 2011 100,211 2012 99,658 Number 08/09 -3,033 09/10 1,581 10/11 2,722 11/12 -553 Percent of Total Mid Small 50- Large <50 249 250+ Total 94,322 4,046 573 100% 91,652 3,731 525 100% 93,240 3,712 537 100% 95,818 3,842 551 100% 95,173 3,917 568 100% Change: Percent -2,670 -315 -48 -3.1% 1,588 -19 12 1.6% 2,578 130 14 2.8% -645 75 17 -0.6% Employees Employees Small <50 38% Businesses Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 Small Total <50 1,317,094 494,288 1,229,065 461,544 1,237,369 468,503 1,251,868 473,763 1,284,281 493,320 Number Change: -88,029 -32,744 8,304 6,959 14,499 5,260 32,413 19,557 Mid 50249 392,228 360,340 360,295 368,979 373,888 Large 250+ 430,578 407,181 408,571 409,126 417,073 -31,888 -45 8,684 4,909 -23,397 1,390 555 7,947 Source: California Employment Development Department Mid Small 50- Large <50 249 250+ 95% 4.1% 0.6% 96% 3.9% 0.5% 96% 3.8% 0.6% 96% 3.8% 0.5% 95% 3.9% 0.6% Change: -2.8% -7.8% 2.3% 1.7% -0.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% 3.1% -0.7% 2.0% 0.0% Percent of Total Mid Small 50- Large Total <50 249 250+ 100% 38% 30% 33% 100% 38% 29% 33% 100% 38% 29% 33% 100% 38% 29% 33% 100% 38% 29% 32% Percent Change: -6.7% -6.6% -8.1% -5.4% 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 2.4% 0.1% 2.6% 4.1% 1.3% 1.9% Annual San Diego County Population Change 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 -5,000 -15,000 Net Domestic Migration -25,000 Net Immigration Natural Increase -35,000 Total Change Source: California Department of Finance; estimate and forecast by National University System Institute for Policy Research. 2013e 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 -45,000 250,000 2000 200,000 2012 Population San Diego Population by Age 150,000 100,000 50,000 Source: San Diego Association of Governments; National University System Institute for Policy Research. Age Range (Years) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 Year 2000 2012 Change Percent TOTAL 2,813,863 3,143,429 329,566 11.7% 0-14 611,119 602,245 -8,874 -1.5% 15-29 652,175 751,133 98,958 15.2% 30-44 679,350 641,634 -37,716 -5.6% 45-64 557,469 773,882 216,413 38.8% 65+ 277,343 314,869 37,526 13.5% Median Age 33.2 34.8 1.6 4.8% 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Los Angeles CA Washington DC SAN DIEGO CA New York NY Boston MA Miami FL Portland OR 200.0 Seattle WA San Francisco CA Tampa FL Denver CO 150.0 Chicago IL Dallas TX Minneapolis MN Charlotte NC 100.0 Phoenix AZ Cleveland OH Las Vegas NV 50.0 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Atlanta GA 2000 Seasonally Adjusted Index: 2000=100.0 250.0 Detroit MI Ratio of Median Selling Home Price to Median Household Income 8.0 Median Home Price / Median Income 7.0 SAN DIEGO 6.0 National 5.0 4.0 3.0 Source: National Association of Home Builders; National University System Institute for Policy Research. 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 2.0 Housing Opportunity Index – 2nd Qtr 2013 Least Affordable Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Housing Median Ratio OpporHome Median of Home tunity Sales Family Price to Metro Area Index+ Price Income Income San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA* 19.3 $781,000 $101,200 7.72 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA* 28.3 407,000 61,900 6.58 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA* 28.8 535,000 84,100 6.36 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ* 29.8 435,000 66,000 6.59 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA 30.0 509,000 73,800 6.90 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 32.2 640,000 101,300 6.32 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA 35.0 400,000 70,900 5.64 SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD-SAN MARCOS, CA 37.1 400,000 72,300 5.53 Salinas, CA 40.5 346,000 63,100 5.48 Napa, CA 40.9 430,000 80,600 5.33 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 42.3 385,000 74,900 5.14 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA 43.3 426,000 71,000 6.00 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 43.8 400,000 87,900 4.55 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 46.5 423,000 86,700 4.88 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA* 47.3 425,000 89,200 4.76 Laredo, TX 49.9 149,000 40,300 3.70 Honolulu, HI 51.6 430,000 86,300 4.98 Ocean City, NJ 53.8 320,000 76,600 4.18 Santa Fe, NM 54.2 277,000 62,000 4.47 Barnstable Town, MA 56.2 317,000 74,900 4.23 National 69.3 202,000 64,400 3.14 *Indicates Metropolitan Divisions, all others are Metropolitan Statistical Areas. California areas are in italics . +Share of homes sold during the quarter affordable to median income. Source: National Association of Home Builders; National University System Institute for Policy Research. 40,000 35,000 0 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e San Diego Housing Construction 45,000 Multiple Units Single Units 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Forecasting is a lot like trying to drive a car while only being able to see out the rear view mirror. - Anonymous www.nusinstitute.org Our Mission The Institute is a non-partisan organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic, policy, and public-opinion research. Thank you for coming! Questions? Dr. Ronald Uhlig Dean, School of Business and Management