CGA seminar series - GIS applications in China Studies
Economic Density: A New Perspective of Regional
Economic Study in China
经济密度：中国区域经济研究的新视角
Xin LAO 劳昕
Doctoral candidate: Peking University
Visiting Fellow: CGA, Harvard University
Outline
•
•
•
•
Background
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
Outline
•
•
•
•
Background
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
Background
• Density, distance and division are three key factors of global
regional economy development (World Bank Development Report 2009:
Reshaping Economic Geography)
• Economic (Activity) Density: The economic development level
and economic agglomeration degree per unit area
Outline
•
•
•
•
Background
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
Origin: Clark(1951)
密度
模型
Theoretical foundation
Monocentric & polycentric
Urban & regional
Mechanism
演化
机制
Reveal evolution reasons
Impacts
Influence on productivity
Further research needed
影响
效应
理论研究
Empirical Research of Economic
Density
Density Model
Theoretical Research of Economic
Density
Methodology: Framework of Economic
Density Study
实证研究
研究
维度
研究
尺度
研究
时段
Indicators
Variables and indicators
depicting the economic
density
Scales
Spatial scale of
research: region, city,
community
Time-series
Periods of time:
evolution process
研究
方法
Methods
Econometrics, GIS,
Spatial Statistics, ESDA
Methodology: Framework of Economic
Density Study
Macro driving
Economic
force
Coordination
mechanism
Market
government
Median driving
force
Micro driving
force
growth
Industrial
structure
change
Factor flow (labor,
capital and
technology)
Endogenous driving force:
urbanization
Economic density
growth
Mechanism
Methodology: Framework of Economic
Density Study
Category
Metrics
Empirical research
Economic density
of population
Economic indicators/
population
卢忠，1992；王晓明，1993
Economic density
of land
Employment density (labor per unit
area)
Ciccone & Robert，1996；Christopher，2003；
Lourens & Jouke，2005；范剑勇，2006；Fredrik
等，2007；Giorgio & Francesca，2007； Marius
& Nicole，2008
Output density (output per unit area)
张富刚等，2005；冯玉平等，2006；A. Grübler
等，2006；陈良文、杨开忠，2007；曹广忠、白
晓，2010
Industry density (secondary and
tertiary industry value added and
industrial output per unit area)
林坚等，2008；冯科等，2008；何邕健、胡丽，
2008；贝涵璐等，2009；罗文斌等，2010
Indicators
Methodology: study area
• Study area: Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River
Delta—most developed and main employment
agglomeration regions in China
–
–
–
–
Indicator: Employment Density
Scale: County Level
Time-series: 2004 and 2008
Methods: Kriging Interpolation, Kernel Density Analysis,
Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis, Employment Mean
Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse
• Data: Employment data from the first and second
national economic census (2004 and 2008)
全国第一、二次经济普查数据
Outline
•
•
•
•
Background
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
Results (1): Economic Density
Distribution in China
Multi-centralized
多中心化
Coast-oriented
Axis-oriented
沿海化
10%area(20km from the coast)
55%employment
Empirical Research: Indicators
轴线化
Results (1): Economic Density
Distribution in China
Gradient distribution 梯度格局
Province
Prefecture
County
省级
地级
区县级
Empirical Research: Scales
Results (1): Economic Density
Distribution in China
Employment
mean center
就业重心
2004—2008:
Polarized effects
Standard
deviation ellipse
极化效应
标准离差椭圆
Empirical Research: Time-series
Results (1): Economic Density
Distribution in China
Scale
Province
Prefecture
County
Industry
2004
2008
Moran's I of all industries
0.15
0.18
Moran's I of Secondary Industry
0.20
0.22
Moran's I of Tertiary Industry
0.08
0.11
Moran's I of all industries
0.26
0.25
Moran's I of Secondary Industry
0.29
0.28
Moran's I of Tertiary Industry
0.11
0.13
Moran's I of all industries
0.35
0.26
Moran's I of Secondary Industry
0.21
0.25
Moran's I of Tertiary Industry
0.41
0.37
Empirical Research: Methods—ESDA
Results (1): Economic Density
Distribution in China
Empirical Research: Methods—ESDA
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in
Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Kriging Interpolation
2004
2004
2008
2008
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Spatial Features
(Employment Distribution Pattern)
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in
Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Kernel Density Analysis
2004
2004
2008
2008
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Spatial Features
(Employment Center Structure)
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in
Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
2004
2004
2008
Yangtze River Delta
2008
Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends
(Spatial Autocorrelation)
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in
Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Agglomeration and
Diffusion Trends（Employment Mean Center
Movement and Dispersion Tendency）
Region
Spatial Statistics Index
Yangtze River Delta
2004
2008
Pearl River Delta
2004
2008
Mean Center (coordinate)
(120.57，31.01)
SD Ellipse Area（km2）
91586.3
114046.0
56386.3
55072.2
SD Ellipse Long Axis（km）
250.4
299.3
233.4
228.7
SD Ellipse Short Axis（km）
114.6
119.1
76.9
76.7
Spatial Density Index
(person/km2)
388
477
404
563
(120.25，31.29) （114.16，22.98） （114.15，22.97）
Outline
•
•
•
•
Background
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
Conclusions
(1) Regional economic patterns in China
– Economic density spatial features 空间特征
•
•
•
•
Gradient distribution 梯度格局
Multi-centralized 多中心化
Coast-oriented 沿海化
Axis-oriented 轴线化
– Economic density evolution 演化特征
Agglomeration Effect 集聚效应
Conclusions
(2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River
Delta
– Similarity
• Employment density cores are mainly located in big cities
along the delta coasts就业密度核心区均集中在三角洲沿
岸的重要城市
• Employment density distribution decreased outward from
the core area to the fringe由核心区往外就业密度分布呈圏
层结构递减
– Difference
• Yangtze River Delta—Monocentric Diffusion 单中心扩散
• Pearl River Delta—Polycentric Agglomeration 多中心集聚
Conclusions
(2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River
Delta
– Employment center structure
• Yangtze——Government-oriented 政府主导
• Pearl——Market-oriented 市场主导
– Influence scope of core employment area
• Yangtze——Location merit and regional integration strategy
区位优势和区域一体化政策
• Pearl——Highly concentrated economic distribution nearby
Hong Kong 临近香港的高度集中的经济空间格局
Thanks!
Questions and comments are welcome!
Xin LAO
xinlao@fas.harvard.edu