Economic Costs of Critical Infrastructure
Failure in El Paso-Juarez Region
Border to Border Transportation Conference
November 20, 2014
Jeff Shelton, Sharada Vadali, Gabriel Valdez, Shailesh Chandra, Arturo Bujanda
Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Mike Medina
El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization

• The Context
• Extreme Event Modeling Framework
• Economic Framework
• Concluding Remarks
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Trade Value (Billions $) : 2013 ($507 Billion) ($280 b imports and $226 b exports)
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Top 10 Ports by Trade Value (Billions of US$) ranked by total trade for USA- NAFTA partner trade in 2011. (U.S. DOT,
Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,TransBorder Freight Data, 2012)
% Export
Value
%Import
Value
% Total
Trade Value
Name Total Trade
Value
Laredo, TX
Detroit, MI
(Truck)
117
99
Buffalo-Niagara, NY 62
El Paso, TX
Port Huron, MI
Otay Mesa, CA
Champlain Rouses Pt,
NY
Hidalgo, TX
Santa Teresa, NM
Pembina, ND
21
18
17
51
48
33
24
9
7
12
22
30
11
10
54
58
37
Export Value
(Truck)
Import
Value
(Truck)
63
40
26
29
18
22
12
15
10
5
7
10
3
3
17
18
12
3
2
4
10
6
7
4
21
13
9
5
3
2
8
8
5
4
19
16
10
3
3
3
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Aging Infrastructure – Underinvestment or
Disinvestment in Critical Links Could be
Costly…
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What did we do?
• Developed a DTA model of the El Paso/Juarez region
• Ports-of-entry
• Traffic signals
• Accurate geometry
• Traffic flow models
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Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling
Framework to Simulate Traffic Effects of
Failures…
Port of Entry (POE) and the Bridge of the
Americas (BOTA)
Simulation Area: LPOE connecting to
I-10 interchange.
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Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling –
Simulated Area and Infrastructure..
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Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic
Implications... Teasing out Domestic,
International Flows
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Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic
Costs to System Users
Data Output
Base Case Short Term Long Term
Zonal Trips
Zonal Travel
Times
Decide ‘Hotspot’ Zones based on Trip Volumes
Trip Diversion Rates
Cost Parameter and Inputs
Shippers and
Carriers
Time Delay Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Operating Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Fuel Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Industry Costs-Additional Inventory Costs
Industry Costs-Additional Freight Shipment
Costs
Border Delay Costs
Zonal Travel
Distances
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Average Travel Time - Trucks
Before event
31 mins
Next day
130 mins
Several weeks
42 mins
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 For the term immediate to disruption, the loss is at an accelerated rate of $2.5 million per day for the shippers and carriers. Peak periods have the highest loss.
 Longer term costs on a per day basis are lower but will accumulate depending on length of replacement schedules and ability of trucks to shift to alternate POEs besides Zaragoza or Santa Teresa.
 Regional spillover costs (indirect and induced) are not considered.
 Possibilities include exploring mitigation strategies and looking at important supply chains and trade flows.
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 Vital for agencies to consider regional resilience as part of preparedness and,
 Continuity planning for businesses along corridors.
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