21st May 2014
Economic and Policy Forum Meeting
Smart Grids:
Increasing energy flexibility
John Scott
john.scott@chilternpower.com
1
Very briefly
My background:
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Electricity Distribution & Transmission planning and operations
Manager of the UK National Control Centre
Engineering Director of National Grid Company in UK
Technical Director for Ofgem, the GB Energy Regulator
Director, Network Innovation for KEMA Consulting Ltd
Independent Consultant, Chiltern Power Limited
IET: Institution of Engineering & Technology – Energy Policy Panel
2
What
characterises
today’s power
grid in GB ?
3
GB Electricity Transmission
Commodity type Market
Customers (homes)
~28m
Generation Capacity
76 GW
Peak Demand
~60 GW
Annual electricity consumption
~ 300TWh
Regulated Networks
Transmission Max Voltage
400 kV
1 System Operator + 3 Trans. Owners
Distribution Max Voltage
132kV
14 Licenced Distribution areas (6 companies)
4
GB Electricity
Distribution
Network Owners
2013
Electricity distribution carries
electricity from the transmission
system and delivers it to consumers.
Typically, it includes 132kV, 33kV
and 11kV power lines, substations
and transformers, and low-voltage
(230/415 V) distribution wiring.
In GB it does not include meters.
6 Owners but 14 Licensed DNOs
5
Regional
Commercial
Largely passive,
domestic users
Few intelligent
appliances
Local
Home
Good sensors
Two-way
power flows
Real time data
Advanced
processing
Transmission
and Systems
2 way data
Sparse sensors
Regional
distribution
Limited data
Limited processing
Limited two-way data
Sensors
1/
2
hr data
Retail processing
Limited one-way
meter reading
No sensors
Fit and forget
One-way power
Transmission is a
well-instrumented
active network
National
LESS DATA, LESS INTELLIGENCE, LESS CONTROL
BUSINESS AS USUAL
Commercial
Properties
Local
distribution
No electronic
data transfer
Manually read
dumb meters
No electronic
data transfer
Homes
6
© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2011
It’s all well
established, so
what’s changing,
why are ‘smarter
grids’ on the
agenda?
Note - Google offers 3 million
references for ‘smart grid’
(and 35 million for ‘smart meter’)
7
The great centralised grids of today… are
largely‘one-way’ systems
One-way power flows
CENTRALISED
GENERATION
Remote generation
Little communications
Limited automation
TRANSMISSION
NETWORK
A mainly passive
network
Delivering electricity
to passive consumers
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
Generation must always
match Demand: there is no
storage in the networks
The traditional paradigm:
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
“Generate what is
Consumed”
acknowledgement
8
The great centralised grids of today… the
challenges ahead
Less- predictable
generation
Less- predictable
loading
New hydro
& marine
Ageing
networks
Quality of
supply &
resilience
Energy
losses
New nuclear
with larger
single loss
risk
Distributed
Generation:
central &
dispersed
PV small and
large scale
Off-shore and on-shore wind
generation
More complex
system balancing
CENTRALISED
GENERATION
Lower inertia power
system
TRANSMISSION
NETWORK
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Customer
energy
efficiency
& smart
meters
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Larger single loss
Network stable
operation
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Two-way power
flows & raised FLs
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Network loading &
voltage limits
Demands AND
sources
Heat
Pumps &
Air Con
Loss of demand
diversity
EV charging
Larger single loss: 1320 (Size B)
increased to 1800 for new nuclear
acknowledgement
9
The great centralised grids of today… the
solution opportunities ahead
Less- predictable
generation
Smart metering &
displays
Generation must
match Demand
‘DR’ Demand
Response
But now, within a new
paradigm:
Aggregation & VPP
“Consume what is
Generated”
Less- predictable
loading
More complex
system balancing
CENTRALISED
GENERATION
Lower inertia power
system
Active Distribution
Networks
Larger single loss
TRANSMISSION
NETWORK
Real time ratings
Network stable
operation
Electricity Storage
Power Electronics
Synthetic Inertia
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
Two-way power
flows & raised FLs
DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK
Network loading &
voltage limits
New materials
Condition
Monitoring
DC embedded &
interconnection
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Home
automation
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Smart Vehicle
Charging
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL
DEMAND
Plus Hearts &
Minds…..
Demands AND
sources
Loss of demand
diversity
acknowledgement
10
Networks for sustainability & security.…
the smart grids of tomorrow
Less- predictable
generation
Smart metering &
displays
Less- predictable
loading
‘DR’ Demand
Response
The Smart Grid Concept
Aggregation & VPP
Active Distribution
Networks
Lower inertia power
system
A new architecture
for the power
system
Real time ratings
Electricity Storage
Power Electronics
More complex
system balancing
Larger single loss
Network stable
operation
Two-way power
flows & raised FLs
Synthetic Inertia
New materials
Bi-directional power
and information flows
Condition
Monitoring
DC embedded &
interconnection
Network loading &
voltage limits
Home
automation
Smart Vehicle
Charging
Demands AND
sources
Plus Hearts &
Minds…..
Customer
Engagement
Loss of demand
diversity
acknowledgement
11
How might these
flexible ‘smart grids’
interact with the Built
Environment?
12
Network Solutions - all voltage levels
A Wide Range of Potential Solutions: Built Environment linkages are highlighted here
1. D-FACTS, STATCOMS, power electronic
14. Electricity storage: interfaces, home and
controllers for voltage management
community scale
The Smart
Grid Concept
2. Solid State tap changers (inc 11kV/LV)
15. Potential for hydrogen production and
3. Interconnection of D-STATCOMs to create
storage
a controllable DC network overlay
16. Microgrids for storms resilience with
4. DC networks in homes and buildings, grid
intentional islanding utilising DERs
networks with multi-terminal systems
17. Phasor Management Units (PMUs) and
5. Superconducting and other designs of
18. Wide Area Monitoring, Control and
fault current limiters
protection (WAMPACs)
6. Soft Open Point power electronics at LV
19. Forecasting, modelling and visualisation
7. Intelligent switching logic and adaptive
for planning /operational timescales
protection and control
20. State Estimation for network observability
8. Power electronics for synthetic inertia
21. Active Network Management (ANM)
9. Solid State transformers
22. Home/Building Energy Management
10. Smart EV charging for homes, streets, car
Systems, Smart Meters & Displays
parks, intelligently co-ordinated
23. Custom Private Networks
11. EV charging: contact-less & mobile
24. Hybrid technologies including hydrogen,
Bi-directional power
andand gas
12. Cyber-secure communications and
heat
information flows
interfaces
25. Smart Communities, Smart Cities and the
13. Waveform cleaning and phase balancing
Internet of Things
13
However, there
is another
pressing
agenda for the
power grid…
14
Adequacy of GB generation capacity?
(i.e. WITHOUT RENEWABLES)
 Closure of nonFGD coal stations
 New nuclear build
still not confirmed
 Renewables are
incentivised
 EMR not yet
complete
 Barrage / Lagoon
proposals
 De-mothballing?
 New CCGT??
 Shale gas???
 National Grid
contingency actions
15
Renewable power sources?
 Renewables are
growing in total
capacity
 Some 20GW peak
 In 2013 renewables
delivered 14% of GB
energy use
 Today, dependent on
the wind and sun
 Importance of
forecasting,
interconnectors,
geographic spread and,
in the future, demand
flexibility and storage.
16
Will Smart Grids
and new flexibility
really happen, do
the costs/benefits
stack up?
17
DECC – the UK Department of Energy & Climate Change
Ofgem – the GB electricity and gas regulator
Developments in GB:
The Smart Grid Forum
Shaping a shared Stakeholder View
The DECC/Ofgem Smart Grid Forum was established in April 2011
• Identify future challenges for
electricity networks;
• Facilitate the exchange of
information and knowledge;
• Guide the actions of
Government/Regulator;
• Help stakeholders better understand
future developments;
• Identify actions to facilitate the
deployment of smart grids;
• Track smart grid initiatives in
Europe and elsewhere.
18
Smart Grid Forum Workstream 3:
Evaluating Conventional and Innovative solutions
To develop and populate a model that demonstrates the value of
smart grid innovative solutions in distribution networks to address
a range of low carbon scenarios
The model is generic - it does not know network
connectivity or calculate load flows or voltages
It does reflect the characteristics of the DNOs networks across GB
It does examine alternative investment strategies
Many modelling parameters are user-definable
The Headline modelling results
Smarter strategies appear most cost effective
Summary of Present Value of gross totex of distribution network investment (2012-2050)
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Some Sensitivity Cases
‘No Clustering’
could reduce
costs by 60%
A 5% change in the
reinforcement threshold
could increase costs by
40%
2nd generation
EVs could
increase costs
by 50%
21
But….
22
The IET’s warning
flag…
… and its challenges to
the power sector
23
The IET Position Statement
 The December 2013 Position
Statement summarises groundbreaking work
 A classic problem of an ‘invisible’ risk
because it grows incrementally
 There is evidence already of changing
GB system behaviours - hence The
IET’s call for action
 This is not a panic message, but
solutions will require sustained effort
and fresh thinking
 Indeed, a ‘shock to the system’ after
80yrs of grid development
 The work here is at a scoping level,
not determining solutions.
The Power Network Joint Vision (PNJV) Position Statement and Report
are available at www.theiet.org
24
The GB view:
Material Changes
Ahead
 The graphic summarises the rising
complexity anticipated for our power
networks
 The scale of change is no longer
incremental and will move the power
network significantly beyond the
bounds of its original Systems
Engineering
 Best practice in other sectors ensures
a ‘Whole Systems’ approach through
the role of a System Architect
 But no party has this role in today’s
industry
25
What is
Ofgem doing
to incentivise
network
innovation?
Answer: more than any
regulator world-wide!
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The Low Carbon Networks Fund
A new regulatory incentive to stimulate smart grid deployment
£500m over 5 years (2010-2015) for bold
network innovation projects
Tier 2 funding a significant amount comprising
£64m p.a. to encourage a small number of
‘flagship’ projects. Funds will be held centrally, with
DNOs competing for funding.
Tier 1 funding of £16m per year is allocated
between all DNOs (according to customer
numbers) on an annual basis. This allocation will
allow each DNO, with minimum bureaucracy, to
undertake several small scale projects. Customers
will fund a maximum of 90% of the cost of projects.
After 2015, these incentives will become the
NIA Network Innovation Allowance, and
NIC Network Innovation Competition
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European Comparators
Smart Grid Projects 2012
• Excellent
messages for
GB’s
positioning in
Europe
• A strong
platform for
innovators,
exports and
growth?
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A Practical
Example of
smart grid
innovation
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An example: UKPN ‘Flexible Plug & Play’
(33kV network)
Ackg’t: Sotiris
Georgiopoulos, UKPN
An Active Network
Management system
(ANM)
An example:
UKPN ‘Flexible
Plug & Play’
Ackg’t: Sotiris
Georgiopoulos, UKPN
Where might all
this be leading?
Is this in fact pointing to bigger
changes than smart and
flexible electricity….
33
The Direction of Travel?
Smart Community
Energy
Storage
Smart
Transport
Smart
Grids
E-Health
Care
Smart
Buildings
Smart
Customers
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The Direction of Travel?
Smart Community
Energy
Storage
Smart
Transport
Smart
Grids
Smart
Buildings
E-Health
Care
Smart
Customers
Smart Community
Energy
Storage
Smart
Transport
Smart
Grids
E-Health
Care
Smart
Buildings
Sensors
Everywhere
Communications
Everywhere
Intelligent
Processing
Big Data Analytics
Smart
Customers
Peer to Peer
“The
Internet of
Things”
…Digital Cities
Smart Community
Energy
Storage
Smart
Grids
E-Health
Care
…Intelligent Cities
Smart
Transport
Smart
Buildings
Smart
Customers
Producer/Consumers
Prosumers
…Smarter Planet (IBM)
…Digital Urbanism (CISCO)
Communities & Collaboration
…Sustainable Cities (Siemens)
35
The Consequences?
Sensors
Everywhere
Plus some new risks and
opportunities for misuse….
1
Communications
Everywhere
Intelligent
Processing
Big Data Analytics
Peer to Peer
Producer/Consumers
Prosumers
Communities & Collaboration
“The
Internet of
Things”
Massive cost savings, new
services and convenience
Connecting Everything with
Everybody
Nearly Free Goods and Services:
”Close to Zero Marginal Costs”
2
‘Nearly Free’ is already with us: Non-profits,
publishing, communications, information, 3Dprinting, on-line higher education (MOOCs), Apps
for smart phones, car sharing, spare room
sharing…..renewable energy
If so, our traditional economic
model (competition by price)
can no longer be dominant
A New Economy is ahead:
A hybrid of Collaborative
Commons + Capitalism.
What impact for Business?
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The Characteristics
Sensors
Everywhere
Communications
Everywhere
Intelligent
Processing
Big Data Analytics
ENERGY
LOGISTICS
COMMUNICATIONS
“The
Internet of
Things”
Peer to Peer
‘NET NEUTRALITY’
Producer/Consumers
Prosumers
Communities & Collaboration
SHARING ON A MASSIVE
SCALE
MORE ABOUT ACCESS
THAN OWNERSHIP
BUILDING SOCIAL
CAPITAL
ENTREPRENEURIAL
OPPORTUNITIES
SUSTAINABLE QUALITY
OF LIFE
OPEN, DISTRIBUTED,
COLLABORATIVE
OPEN & DISTRIBUTED
BUSINESS
ACCESS FOR ANYONE,
ANYWHERE, ANYTIME
MORE ‘QUALITY of LIFE’,
LESS ABOUT ‘GDP’
37
A growing body of work…
Watch his lecture from the RSA in London:
http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-pastevents/2014/a-world-beyond-markets
Delong & Summers, The New Economy
Univ of California, Berkeley, 2001
http://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedkpr/y2001p1
1-43.html
38
These changes may take decades,
but they are fundamental.
Q – do the construction, engineering, and
technology sectors have insights to offer?
If so, they must ‘reserve their rights to play’.
But, do they currently have sufficient influence?
39
Some key
messages to
summarise
40
In Summary
The landscape for power grids is set to change:
1
Disruptive challenges are
ahead: smart solutions will
be needed
3
Whole-systems thinking is
needed: a System
Architect for the grid?
2
Consumer & business
engagement will be key to
the changes
4
We can expect Near-Zero
Marginal Prices: changes
ahead for our economy
… real impacts for business and wider society.
41
Smart Grids:
Increasing energy flexibility
Thank you for your attention
Discussion
John Scott, Director, Chiltern Power Ltd.
www.chilternpower.com
+44 (0) 7771 975 623
42
Spare
Material
43
Is today’s
framework
creaking
already?
• Fundamental design changes require a
whole-systems view: but no one has
accountability as the System Architect
• Rising inter-dependencies and
complexity: electricity, heat, gas, comms,
big data, transport, and consumers at
scale
• The skills deficit: future support for
customers, clients and supply chains
• The consultation burden from DECC and
Ofgem (now 1/week from DECC, 4/week from Ofgem)
• Short termism: electoral cycle times & the
Senior Civil Service rotational system
• Is there sufficient strategic capability?
44
Membership List (by invitation)
at April 2014
Hannah Nixon (Joint Chair) Ofgem
Sandy Sheard (Joint Chair) DECC
Mike Calviou
National Grid
Dave Openshaw
UKPN (DNO)
Steve Johnson ENWL (DNO)
Phil Jones
CE Electric (DNO)
Mark Mathieson SSE (DNO & TO)
Chris Harris
RWE nPower
Ashley Pocock EDF (Supplier)
Tim Rotheray
CHP Association
John Scott
Chiltern Power
Judith Ward
Sustainability First
Jim Sutherland Scottish Power (DNO)
Robert Symons WPD (DNO)
An open selection process for
membership was run by the
Government/Regulator jointly
Yselkla Farmer
Chris Welby
John Mulcahy
Gavin Jones
Duncan Botting
Steve Unger
Nick Jenkins
Ben Davison
Sarah Bell
BEAMA
Good Energy
British Gas
Electralink
PB Power
Ofcom
Cardiff University
OLEV (EVs)
DSR Coalition
45