Outliers
The Story of Success
by
Malcolm Gladwell
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chief
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Outliers
• Outliers are men and women who do things
out of the ordinary
• To understand why certain people become
outliers we must look at factors beyond
innate talent. We must also look at:
– Where they were reared
– When they grew up
– The culture they belonged to
– The characteristics passed down by their
forebears
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The Ecology of Organisms
• The tallest tree in the forest probably
came from a hardy acorn, but other
factors also contributed to its height.
Such factors as:
– No other trees blocked sunlight from getting
through to the tree
– The soil around the tree was rich in nutrients
– No animals chewed through its bark when it
was a young tree
– No one cut it down before it matured
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The Effect of Birth Dates
• An analysis of a highly successful
Canadian hockey team found:
– 40% of the players were born between
January and March
– 30% were born between April and June
– 20% were born between July and
September
– 10% were born between October and
December
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The Effect of Birth Dates
• In Canada the eligibility cut off for
age-class (club) hockey is January 1
– Those players born early in the year are
bigger and more mature than those born
later in the year
– As a consequence, the older players
perform better and are picked for advanced
placement where they receive better
coaching and more playing time
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The Effect of Birth Dates
• In the U.S., the cutoff for almost all
non-school baseball leagues is July 31
– As a result, more major league players are
born in August than in any other month
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Summary of the Effects of Age
• If you make a decision about who is
talented and who is not at an early age
and
• You separate the “talented” from the
“untalented” and provide the talented
ones with superior experiences
• You will give a huge advantage to those
born shortly after the cutoff date
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The “Matthew Effect”
• “For unto everyone that hath shall be
given, and he shall have abundance.
But from him that hath not shall be
taken away even which he hath.”
• The rich have a natural advantage
• The best students get the best teachers
and the most attention
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Accumulative Advantage
• Some people start off a little bit superior
to their peers
• This initial small difference leads to more
opportunities, which makes them more
superior, which leads to more
opportunities, etc., etc., etc.
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Gates’ Advantage
• Parents – Wealthy Lawyer/Banker’s daughter
• 7th grade - Private School/Computer club
• 1968 - Mother’s Club bought computer terminal
for mainframe in downtown Seattle
• U. Wash – Computer Center Corp. – leased
mainframe time (founder’s son @ same school)
• ISI – Free time for working on payroll app
• TRW – Independent study semester, writing
code for Bonneville power station app
• Dropped out of Harvard – had 7 years’
programming experience
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The 10,000 Hour Rule
• The closer psychologists look at the
careers of outliers, the less important is
innate talent and the more important is
preparation
• Ten thousand hours is the magic number
for expertise in most areas
• Before they became famous, the Beatles
played eight hours a day, seven days a
week in a club in Hamburg
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The Effect of Timing
• The most important date in the history
of the personal computer revolution is
January 1975 when the Altair 8800
was introduced
• If you were too old for the personal
computer revolution in 1975 you were
probably born before 1952
• If you were born after 1959 you were probably too young
• Leaders of the personal computer revolution:
–
–
–
–
–
Bill Gates – 1955 (Microsoft)
Paul Allen – 1953 (Microsoft #2)
Steve Ballmer – 1956 (Microsoft #24)
Steve Jobs – 1955 (Apple)
Eric Schmidt – 1955 (PARC, Sun (Java), Novell, Google)
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The Effect of Parentage
• Wealthy parents can afford to give their
children opportunities that less wealthy
parents cannot
• Poor children have an inherent
disadvantage in school – a disadvantage
that, in fact, widens every year
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Academics vs. Socioeconomics
• Karl Alexander, Sociologist
at Johns Hopkins University
• 640 First Graders, Baltimore - 1982
• California Achievement Test
(math/reading)
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Year-End Test Scores
Socioecon
Class
1 Yr
Low
Middle
High
329
348
361
Hi/Low
32
2 Yr
375
388
418
3 Yr
397
425
460
4 Yr
433
467
566
2x
5 Yr
461
497
534
73
Progress/Year
Low
Middle
55
69
46
43
30
34
33
41
25
27
High
60
39
34
28
23
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Totals
189
184
Over Summer Vacation
(reading only)
Socioecon
Class
Low
Middle
High
1st
2nd
-3.67
-3.11
-1.70
4.18
15.38
4th
Total
.26
7.09
9.22 14.51 13.38 52.49
Why?
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3rd
2.74
3.68
2.89
2.34
Solution? More School
• Average School Year
– USA: 180 days
– South Korea: 220
– China: 230
– Japan: 243
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KIPP Academy
•
•
•
•
•
Mid-90’s – Grades 5-8
@ Lou Gehrig Middle School, South Bronx
7:25 am – 5 pm, Saturday 9 am – 1 pm
90 Minutes of English/day
90 Minutes of Math/day
(2 hr/day in 5th grade)
• 95% at or above grade level in math
• 90% get private HS Scholarships
• 86% to college (1st generation for many)
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KIPP NYC
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In Summary
1. Success is predictable
2. It is not the brightest who succeed
3. Outliers take maximum advantage of the
opportunities that are made available to
them
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Outliers
The Story of Success
by
Malcolm Gladwell
We Share Ideas