How useful are microclasses? An analysis of detailed parental occupational differences and their effects on filial school attainment in Britain Professor Vernon Gayle & Dr Paul Lambert University of Stirling Modelling Patterns of Social Stratification ESRC NCRM Lancaster-Warwick-Stirling Node Sociology Strand Research Meeting 1 August 31st 2011 – 2nd September 2011, University of Stirling Microclass Analysis • Motivation: There might be extra insights somewhere between ‘big class categories’ and ‘individual occupations’? • Exciting debate emerging • Punch up between heavyweights… For microclasses Grusky, Weeden and Jonsson Against Goldthorpe and Erikson Jonsson et al (2009) AJS; Grusky and Weeden (2005, 2006) Erikson, Goldthorpe and Hällsten (2011) 2 Microclass Analysis • There might be extra insights somewhere between ‘big class categories’ and ‘individual occupations’? For example, between the eight categories of an agglomerate scheme and the 371 administrative (and sociologically unorganised) occupational unit groups, could there be 80-120 microclasses defined by their professional cultures and practices? 3 Microclass Analysis ‘Microclass regime —The microclass approach shares with the big-class model the presumption that contemporary labor markets are balkanized into discrete categories, but such balkanization is assumed to take principally the form of institutionalized occupations (e.g., doctor, plumber, postal clerk) rather than institutionalized big classes (e.g., routine nonmanuals, proprietors)’ (Jonsson et al 2009 pp.982-983) 4 Microclass Reproduction Mechanisms of Intergenerational Reproduction (Jonsson et al 2009 Table 1 p.986) • Human capital Occupation-specific skills (e.g. carpentry) • Cultural capital Occupation-specific cultures and tastes (e.g. aspirations, medicine, help with UCAS application) • Social networks Occupation-specific networks (e.g. doing ‘the knowledge’, job interviews, internships) • Economic resources Fixed resources (e.g. farms, market stalls, business in general) 5 Initial Appeal • The initial appeal is the prospect of clearer resolution regarding 1. Occupation-Specific Human Capital 2. Occupation-Specific Cultural Capital 3. Other Occupation-Specific Mechanisms • First attempt (that we are aware of) to construct a British microclass scheme • Example (from Gayle and Lambert 2011) http://www.staff.stir.ac.uk/vernon.gayle/documents/gayle_lambert_rc28_v1.pdf 6 General Certificate of Education • The Education Reform Act 1988 led to rapid changes in the secondary school curriculum, and to the organisation, management and financing of schools • A major change for pupils was the introduction of the General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) • GCSEs differed from the qualifications that they replaced • A new grading scheme was established and all pupils were entered for a common set of examinations • There were also changes in the content and format of examinations and assessment by coursework was introduced • School league tables are published (and targets are set) • A newsworthy item each summer • Previously only teachers, parents and pupils knew when exam results day was 7 General Certificate of Education • General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) introduced in the late 1980s • The standard qualification for pupils in England and Wales in year 11 (aged 15/16) • Usually a mixture of assessed coursework and examinations • Generally each subject is assessed separately and a subject specific GCSE awarded • It is usual for pupils to study for about nine subjects, which will include core subjects (e.g. English, Maths and Science) and non-core subjects • GCSEs are graded in discrete ordered categories • The highest being A*, followed by grades A through to G (A* from 1994) • Arran Fernandez gained A* in Maths at age 8 ! 8 Why Explore GCSE Attainment? • GCSEs are public examinations and mark the first major branching point in a young person’s educational career • Poor GCSE attainment is a considerable obstacle which precludes young people from pursuing more advanced educational courses • Young people with low levels of GCSE attainment are usually more likely to leave education at the minimum school leaving age and their qualification level frequently disadvantages them in the labour market • Low levels of qualifications are also likely to have a longer term impact on experiences in the adult labour market • Therefore, we argue that gaps in GCSE attainment are sociologically important 9 Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales • Major Longitudinal Study began Mid-1980s • Designed to monitor behaviour of young people as they reach the minimum school leaving age and either stay on in education of enter the labour market • Experiences of Education (qualifications); Employment; Training; Aspirations; Family; Personal characteristic & circumstances • Nationally representative; Large sample size; Panel data (albeit short); Possible to compare cohorts (trends over time) • Study contacts a sample from an academic year group (cohort) in the spring following completion of compulsory education • The sample is designed to be representative of all Year 11 pupils in England & Wales • Sample are tracked for 3 (sometimes 4) waves (called Sweeps) of data collection • We concentrate on the cohorts attaining GCSEs (1990 - 1999) 10 Parental Occupations and Filial Attainment Extended analyses of the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales • Overall trend • Increasing proportions getting the benchmark 5+GCSEs (A*-C) • Increasing mean number of A*-C grade GCSEs • Increasing mean GCSE points score • Gender • Female pupils outperforming male pupils • Ethnicity • Some groups doing better than white pupils (e.g. Indians) • Other groups doing worse (e.g. blacks) • Parental Occupation • Observable gradient • Lower levels of GCSE attainment from those pupils with less occupationally advantaged parents 11 Sensitivity analysis of 10 popular occupational measures GCSE Attainment Year 11 Regression Models: GCSE Point Score Cohort Cohort+Sex Cohort+Sex+Ethnicity +NS-SEC9 +ESEC +RGSC +EGP11 +NS-SEC3 +Man/Non +Skill +ISEI +MCAMSIS +NES 0 .05 .1 .15 Adjusted R Squared Source: SN5765, n=54614 (unweighted data) ('conventional' occ. measures); 1990s YCS Cohorts. .2 Exploring parental influences at occupational unit group (OUG) level National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SEC) NS-SEC No. of SOC90 Occupations* 1.1 Large Employers and higher managers 1.2 Higher professional occupations 2 Lower managerial and professional occupations 3 Intermediate occupations 5 Lower supervisory and technical occupations 6 Semi-routine occupations 7 Routine occupations 10 38 78 42 41 88 74 Total 371 * Employees Possible interesting variations within NS-SEC categories? 13 GCSE Attainment Year 11 Mean GCSE Score, Parents' SOC90 (large SOC groups) Illustrations of occupations 50 Uni teach 40 Solicitor Works manager 30 Nursery nurse Plumber Kit porter 20 Driver 1.1 1.2 2 3 4 5 Family Social Class 6 7 Mean for NS-SEC Class Source:1990s YCS Cohorts; Comprehensive school pupils. 121 larger SOCs; Pupils per SOC Mean 380; Min 101; Max 1836 (Nurses). 14 GCSE Attainment Year 11 Mean GCSE Score, Parents' SOC90 (large SOC groups) Illustrations of extreme occupations 50 Uni teach Medics Teachers (secondary) Other teachers 40 Other Eng Elec fitters Other misc Educ ass 30 Metal mates Publicans Aux Nurses Gardeners Food pro 20 Bar staff 1.1 1.2 2 3 4 5 Family Social Class 6 7 Mean for NS-SEC Class Source:1990s YCS Cohorts; Comprehensive school pupils. 121 larger SOCs; Pupils per SOC Mean 380; Min 101; Max 1836 (Nurses). 15 SOC90 NS-SEC 1.2 Higher professional occupation 2. Lower managerial and professional occupations 3. Intermediate occupations Male graduates Female graduates Medics Solicitors Other engineers Teachers (secondary) 92% 94% 37% 85% 86% 97% 47% 71% Works managers Publicans 22% 4% 20% 1% Teachers (dance etc) 42% 42% Nursery nurses a Auxiliary nurses 11% 3% 4% 1% a. We suspect that the parental age profile might be consequential (e.g. younger mothers who are nurses are increasingly more likely to graduates). McKnight and Elias (1998) 371 Database: Source UK Labour Force Survey 1994 SOC90 NS-SEC 5. Lower supervisory and technical occupations 6. Semiroutine occupations 7. Routine occupations Higher level technical (e.g. BTEC) Males Females No Qualifications (less than GCSE) Males Females Electrical fitters 5% 18% 15% 82% Plumber Gardeners Education assistants 13% 1% 22% 27% 5% 20% 55% 41% 22% 49% 8% 11% (38% graduates) (3% graduates) Kitchen porters 3% 2% 23% 2% Food production Metal mates Drivers (goods) 1% 1% 38% 39% 44% 19% 32% 16% 28% Bar staff McKnight and Elias (1998) 371 Database: Source UK Labour Force Survey 1994 Microclass Analyses • Description of the composition of the microclasses • Summary results of GCSE attainment by microclasses • Examine some microclasses in detail (teaching and managerial) • Think about within-microclasses? • Sensitivity analyses with the microclass measure • Gelman and Hill (2007) style random effects 18 1101. 1102. 1103. 1104. 1105. 1106. 1107. 1108. 1109. 1201. 1202. 1203. 1204. 1301. 1302. 1303. 1304. 1305. 1306. 1307. 1308. 1309. 1310. 1311. 1312. 1313. 1314. 2001. 3101. 3102. 3103. 3104. 3105. 3201. 3202. 3203. 3204. 4101. 4103. 4104. 4105. 4107. 4108. Jurists Health professionals Professors and instructors Natural scientists Statistical and social scientists Architects Accountants Journalists, authors, and related Engineers Officials, government and non-pro Managers Commercial Managers Building managers and proprietors Systems analysts and programmers Aircraft pilots and navigators Personnel and labor relations work Elementary and secondary school teacher Librarians Creative artists Ship officers Professional, technical, and related Social and welfare workers Workers in religion Nonmedical technicians Health semiprofessionals Hospital attendants Nursery school teachers and aides Proprietors Real estate agents Other agents Insurance agents Cashiers Sales workers and shop assistants Telephone operators Bookkeepers and related workers Office and clerical workers Postal and mail distribution clerical Craftsmen and kindred workers Electronics service and repair workers Printers and related workers Locomotive operators Tailors and related workers Vehicle mechanics 4109. 4110. 4111. 4112. 4113. 4114. 4115. 4116. 4117. 4118. 4119. 4120. 4201. 4202. 4203. 4204. 4205. 4206. 4207. 4208. 4209. 4210. 4301. 4302. 4303. 4304. 4305. 4306. 4307. 4308. 4309. 4310. 4311. 4312. 5101. 5201. 5202. 9990. Blacksmiths and machinists Jewelers, opticians, and precious Other mechanics Plumbers and pipe-fitters Cabinetmakers Bakers Welders and related metal workers Painters Butchers Stationary engine operators Bricklayers, carpenters, and relates Heavy machine operators Truck drivers Chemical processors Miners and related workers Longshoremen and freight handlers Food processors Textile workers Sawyers and lumber inspectors Metal processors Operatives and kindred workers, n Forestry workers Protective service workers Transport conductors Guards and watchmen Food service workers Mass transportation operators Service workers, n.e.c. Hairdressers Newsboys and deliverymen Launderers and dry-cleaners Housekeeping workers Janitors and cleaners Gardeners Fishermen Farmers and farm managers Farm laborers Members of armed forces Examples of the Composition of Microclasses Health Professionals 220 Medical practitioners 221 Pharmacists / pharmacologists 223 Dental practitioners 224 Veterinarians Workers in religion 292 Clergy Elementary and Secondary teachers 233 Secondary school teachers 234 Primary school teachers 235 Special education 239 Other teaching (e.g. dance) Health Semi-Professionals 222 Ophthalmic opticians 340 Nurses 341 Midwives 342 Medical radiographers 343 Physiotherapists 344 Chiropodists 345 Dispensing opticians 347 Occupational and speech therapists 348 Environmental health officers 349 Other health associated professionals Microclass Mean GCSE score S.E. Mean GCSE score Median GCSE score n Health professionals 52.96 0.69 55 426 Statistical and social scientists Professors and instructors Natural scientists 51.18 51.13 51.12 1.55 0.52 0.78 54 53 53 83 738 299 Elementary and secondary school teachers Jurists 50.45 49.81 0.28 1.03 52 51 2521 219 Systems analysts and programmers Workers in religion Librarians Architects 49.11 49.01 48.81 48.54 0.46 1.13 1.29 0.64 51 52 50 50 948 180 111 471 Sawyers and lumber inspectors Food processors Truck drivers Textile workers Heavy machine operators 29.39 29.31 29.28 28.92 28.49 1.67 3.7 0.51 1.52 0.8 29 29 29.5 30 28 84 13 1062 127 445 Longshoremen and freight handlers Miners and related workers Housekeeping workers Fishermen Launderers and dry-cleaners 28.47 27.28 26.93 26 25.37 1.29 1.2 0.58 2.88 2.23 29 27 26 23 25 139 183 859 29 43 GCSE Attainment Year 11 Mean GCSE Score, Parents' SOC90 (large SOC groups) Illustrations of extreme occupations 50 Uni teach Medics Teachers (secondary) Other teachers 40 Other Eng Elec fitters Other misc Educ ass 30 Metal mates Publicans Aux Nurses Gardeners Food pro 20 Bar staff 1.1 1.2 2 3 4 5 Family Social Class 6 7 Mean for NS-SEC Class Source:1990s YCS Cohorts; Comprehensive school pupils. 121 larger SOCs; Pupils per SOC Mean 380; Min 101; Max 1836 (Nurses). 22 GCSE Attainment Year 11 Mean GCSE Score, comprehensive school pupils 35 40 45 50 Parents in teaching occupations NS-SEC3 Secondary Other (e.g.dance) Special Primary Microclass Source: SN5765;1990s YCS Cohorts. 23 Multiple Occupations (SOC90) and Single Occupation Microclasses Microclass n Mean s.e. mean lower upper 1202 Managers 5339 42.25 0.22 41.82 42.67 Commercial 1203 Managers 2391 46.49 0.30 45.90 47.08 76 45.55 1.50 42.56 48.55 180 49.27 1.14 47.02 51.51 1302 Aircraft Pilots 1310 Clergy GCSE Attainment Year 11 Mean GCSE Score, comprehensive school pupils 50 55 Parents in Microclass 1202 45 108 1644 40 1058 5339 216 293 104 79 31 1456 35 191 Microclass Production Transport Warehouse Entertainment Other General Mines Store Catering Service SOC90 GCSE Attainment Year 11 Mean GCSE Score, comprehensive school pupils 45 Parents in New Microclass 40 216 2529 293 104 79 31 1456 30 35 191 New Microclass Mines Transport Warehouse Store SOC90 Entertainment Catering Service No. parameters {# unique units} (no occ data) Full R2 R2 increment 0.077 CAMSIS 1 {405} 0.191 0.115 ISEI 1 {59} 0.184 0.107 8 0.184 0.107 Educ_Scale (YCS)a 1 {365} 0.217 0.141 Educ_Scale (BHPS) 1 {76} 0.184 0.108 Microclass 81 0.201 0.125 ISCO88 (3-digit) 236 0.214 0.137 SOC90 369 0.220 0.143 NS-SEC n=54793. Linear regression with controls for cohort, gender and ethnicity. Excludes SOC90=999 (‘All other miscellaneous’). a. Tom DiPrete suggested the inclusion of such a measure. Sensitivity Analyses – Random effects models Level 3 Level 2 Level 3 ICC Level 2 ICC Level 2 + Level 3 ICC (loglike) (1) SOC90 0.165 0.165 (227221) (2a) {+i.microclass} SOC90 0.032 0.032 (226808) (2b) {+i.ns-sec} SOC90 0.058 0.058 (227029) (3) Microclass 0.163 0.163 (227411) (4) NS-SEC 0.138 0.138 (227828) (5) Microclass SOC90 0.151 0.027 0.178 (227077) (6) NS-SEC SOC90 0.110 0.052 0.162 (227052) (7) NS-SEC Microclass 0.053 0.063 0.117 (227176) Estimated using xtmixed in Stata with reml ,except (4) using mle. (6) and (7) are crossclassified models, (5) is nested. Sensitivity Analyses – Random effects models (5) Level 3 Level 2 Level 3 ICC Level 2 ICC Level 2 + Level 3 ICC (loglike) Microclass SOC90 0.151 0.027 0.178 (227077) At the present time we believe that this results indicates that the bulk, but not all, of the parental occupational variation is accounted for by microclass. This clearly requires more thought… Conclusions There might be extra insights somewhere between ‘big class categories’ and ‘individual occupations’? • Microclasses are sociologically plausible • First attempt to construct a British microclass scheme • Extra explanatory power (for GCSE attainment) questionable? • Alternative operationalisations of micro classes • Many UK data sources now don’t include occupational unit group information so a microclass approach may be restricted? • Possibilities for primary data collection • Survey question with microclass lists (e.g. librarian, butcher etc) • Harry Ganzeboom has made this point previously 30 Conclusions • Parental occupations are important for GCSE attainment • Message to head teachers (on performance related pay) enrol the sons and daughters of dance teachers rather than publicans! • Unwillingness to collect parental occupational information (Govt and schools) • Free school meals a measure of social background (in research and league tables) • About 15% of pupils in state funded secondary schools • Unstable measure - panel data regularly reveals a high level of ‘income churning’ from year to year (for the UK see Jarvis and Jenkins 1997) • Possible end of Youth Cohort Study! 31