Assessment of measures Potential new measures, or extended scope of existing measures Terje Andersen / Gavin Astin 29 September 2011 Agenda 1. Background 2. Assessment Methodology 3. Measure Effectiveness Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 2 Measures Identification Consultation with railway industry. Network statements. Country RUs / Wagon Owner IMs Country RUs / Wagon Owner Internet research. Austria Yes Yes Luxembourg Yes Yes Macedonia Additional input: Bulgaria Yes CER Yes - NSAs. - Suppliers. Belgium Netherlands IMs Yes Yes Norway Croatia Yes Poland Yes Czech Republic Yes Portugal Yes Yes Romania Denmark Yes Estonia Finland Yes France Germany Slovakia Yes Yes Slovenia Yes Yes Spain Yes Sweden Yes Switzerland Yes Yes Greece Hungary Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Turkey Ireland UIP Yes Italy UNIFE Yes Yes Japan United Kingdom Yes Yes United States Yes Yes Latvia Yes Yes Lithuania Yes Yes Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 3 Some Background and Novel Approaches Consultation: - More than 60 measures in our database. - In addition, many 100s / 1000s of national rules, company standards etc. - Different approaches in Member States, ranging from reliance on organisational measures through to fully integrated wayside detectors and continuous monitoring. Some extracts: - Balance on wagons to help identify loading errors. Heat sensitive paints to help diagnose hot axle box conditions. Registered loading inspectors / personnel. Harmless infrastructure. Important longer term considerations: - Data and information sharing. - Telematics / wagon identification. Industry challenge is to find common ground for harmonisation amongst these different approaches. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 4 Existing preventive measures to reduce Infrastructure caused derailments (1) Improved inspection routines: - Timely maintenance follow-up of inspection results. Upgrade weak infrastructure to match present axle loads: - Freight only lines are today used for loading conditions far exceeding their design standard. Stricter and more harmonised track geometry requirements to account for international traffic. Move signals which may show stop aspect away from track sections with geometry not suitable for low speed braking or acceleration, or adjust track geometry to train operating conditions. Examples: - Avoid signals that can show stop aspect behind small radius curves with high cant. - Alternatively redesign track geometry or install check rails. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 5 Excessive track twist Picture shows a train on a track in UK that caused derailment due to excessive track twist. Track twist restriction area by draft TSI for Conventional Rail Infrastructure for curves with R< 420 m. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 6 Existing preventive measures to reduce Infrastructure caused derailments (2) Greasing of track curves. Interlocking of points to avoid operation while occupied by rolling stock: - Mainly at stations and shunting yards. Increased separation of freight and passenger traffic along different lines and adjustment of track geometry design to most frequent traffic type. Apply ”maintenance free” superstructure design e.g. fixed track/slab track. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 7 Existing preventive measures to reduce Rolling stock related derailments Measures to avoid Hot Axle Box derailments: - Wheel load impact detectors to detect faulty wheels giving excessive vibration to bearing. - Improve bearing design by applying more vibration tolerant components in bearing. - Track installed detector installations to detect faulty bearings or hot axle boxes: - Hot axle box detectors. - Bearing acoustic diagnostic. Measures to avoid axle shaft fatigue ruptures: - Improved design standards. Appropriate material selection. Fault free surface corrosion protection. Improved in service inspection in order to detect incipient failures. Appropriate greasing of bogie pivots and side supports. Apply improved suspension design, e.g.. parabolic blade springs instead of trapezoidal blade springs. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 8 Rolling stock measures towards wheels and axles Exchange brass roller bearings with polyamide roller cages. Evaluate use of composite wheels vs monoblock wheels. European Visual Inspection Catalogue for Wheelsets Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 9 Existing preventive measures to reduce Operational related derailments Training of operational staff of all types. Proper inspection, testing and check of wagons, train prior to departure: - Improved tools to ensure quality of these activities, e.g. check lists. Improved tools to detect overloading, skew loading and/or insufficient fastened load: - Weighing devices at terminal or along track. - Visual balances on wagons. ATP-system to avoid SPADs and excessive speed across deviated points/turnouts. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 10 Consequence Mitigation Measures Category: M# Measures and motivation: Rolling stock M-1 Derailment detection detectors (valves) to avoid derailed wagons from being dragged along for long distances. Equip tank wagons with impact shield to protect tank against penetration (USrequirement also used in Sweden). Install emergency warning lights on locomotive to warn train on neighbouring track going in opposite direction. Attach mechanical guides at the bogie structure or on wagon support at appropriate position to ensure that a derailed wagon most likely is kept along the track and does not overturn or become hit by other wagons. Existing requirement for safety rails (guard rails) at bridges and in tunnels. Battering rams in front of safety critical pillar supports of roof structures and overbridges in order to prevent derailed rolling stock damaging such safety critical structures. Installation of dragging object and derailment detectors. The detector will detect both dragging objects and derailments. Installation of deviation points leading to a safe derailment place in strongly descending tracks from marshalling yards and train formation stations. Radio or cell phone communication installations like GSM-R in order to transfer emergency stop orders to trains. Separate passenger and freight traffic to separate lines to a larger degree (which is also EU-policy). Restrictions on freight traffic in general or hazardous materials transport in special through certain busy passenger terminals and/or underground stations to restrict traffic and limit the consequences of a derailment. Develop and apply a checklist for dangerous goods transport as the Swiss checklist for dangerous goods transport by freight trains. Requirement for activating of warning lights in driving end of train. M-2 M-3 M-4 Infrastructure M-5 M-6 M-7 M-8 M-9 Operational M-10 M-11 M-12 M-13 Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 11 Agenda 1. Background 2. Assessment Methodology 3. Measure Effectiveness Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 12 Assessment Methodology We have used qualitative basis for assessment if the following applies: - They generally offer only small benefit in comparison with other measures, and / or; - They form part of a suite or measures that can be integrated together (for example a number of measures identified associated with rolling stock maintenance can be integrated into a single measure), and / or; - There is insufficient data to enable a more detailed assessment and therefore there would be significant uncertainty in the results. Otherwise, measures are assessed on a quantified basis. Some measures are outside of the project scope and have not been considered. Accident causes and preventive measures that are already being addressed by other projects, such as (such as the Euroaxles project addressing axle shaft fractures) are also not considered. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 13 Measures Assessed using a Qualitative Approach Measure Number Description Time Category P-9 Interlocking of points operation while track is occupied. Medium P-20 Ultrasonic Rail Inspection Short P-22 EU-wide intervention/action limits for track twist Medium P-23 EU-wide intervention/action limits for track gauge variations Medium P-24 EU-wide intervention/action limits for cant variations Medium P-25 EU-wide intervention/action limits for height variations and cyclic tops Medium P-34 Secure brake gear under frame Medium P-35 Regular greasing and checks of rolling stock buffers. Short P-36 Wheel set integrity inspection (ultrasonic) programs. Short P-39 Double check and signing of safety-classified maintenance operations Short P-40 Qualified and registered person responsible for loading Medium P-41 Locomotive and first wagons of long freight trains in brake position G Short P-42 Limitations on use of brake action in difficult track geometry Short P-43 Dynamic brake test on the route Medium P-46 Not allowing traffic controllers and drivers to override detector alarms Short P-47 Wagons equipped with a balance to detect overload in visual inspection. Medium F-2 Awareness program and improved maintenance for Rolling Stock Short Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 14 Measures Assessed using a Quantified Approach Measure Number Description Time Category P-1 Check rail in sharp curves Medium P-2 Track lubrication Medium P-10 Hot axle box (hot bearing) detectors Medium P-12 Hot wheel and hot brake detectors P-11 Acoustic bearing monitoring equipment Medium P-13 Wheel load and wheel impact load detectors / weighing Medium P-15 Bogie performance monitoring / Bogie lateral instability detection (bogie hunting) Medium P-16 Wheel profile measurement system / Wheel profile monitoring unit Medium P-18 Sufficient availability of maintenance resources (for Infrastructure maintenance) Short P-21 Track geometry measurement of all tracks P-19 Clearance of obstructions from flange groove (particularly at level crossings) Short P-28 Replace metal roller cages in axle bearings by polyamide roller cages. Medium F-6 Anti-lock devices Medium F-7 Sliding wheel detectors Medium M-1 Derailment Detection applied to; All freight trains; DG wagons; RID proposed scope Medium Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 15 Quantified Assessment Parameters Considering Sliding Wheel Detectors, we identified about 8 derailments (handbrakes left on, etc.) that may be detected by these devices. (Existing controls are manual inspection, local rules and solutions). Is the benefit (potentially 8 avoided derailments) a good use of finite resources? On the one hand we need to consider the benefit and on the other the resources to secure that benefit. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 16 Quantifying these Benefits (avoided Derailments) Each derailment has an impact in terms of: Potential loss of life; Operational disruption; rack damage; Wagon damage; Environmental events (contamination). Scenario Immediate severe, DG involvement Not immediate severe, DG involvement Immediate severe, no DG involvement Not immediate severe, no DG involvement Not severe derailment, safe stop Track Damage Wagon Damage Disruption Costs Average Km Cost (E/km) # wagons Cost/wagon (E/wagon) Hours disruption Cost/hour (E/hour) 0.5 427746 7 23526 50 16040 5 160405 7 23526 50 16040 0.5 427746 7 12832 50 16040 5 160405 7 12832 50 16040 0.5 32081 2 5347 12 8020 In addition, the cost model assigns monetised benefits associated with the value of preventing a fatality or injury (€1.5 million & €200 k respectively). Environmental contamination costs about €1,000,000 per event. Therefore, preventing an immediately severe DG derailment that leads to loss of containment and three lives has a cost (at today’s values) of: - (3 * €1,500,000) + 0.5 * (€427,746) + 7 * (€23,256) + 50 * (€16,040) + €1,000,000 = €6,678,665. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 17 Quantifying the Costs To our knowledge few Sliding Wheel Detectors installed installation (in Europe). Would require installation at major freight origin points – we estimated about 1,300 units would provide good coverage. Established the cost to purchase and maintain over measure lifetime. Is the investment worthwhile? Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 18 Some Data Measure Purchase / Installation Costs Annual Maintenance Cost Max Potential Benefit Measure Effectiveness / Other Considerations Net benefit P-1: Check Rail €500 / metre. Additional maintenance cost of €5 / metre. 25 avoided derailments Assumed 90% effective where fitted. 23 avoided derailments (6 HSD, 17 LSD) 25 avoided derailments Assumed 50% effective 13 avoided derailments (10 LSD, 3 HSD) 60 avoided derailments 60 * 90% * 99% (99% being the availability figures for devices of this type) 53 avoided derailments (12 LSD, 41 HSD) P-2: Track Lubrication P-10 & P-12: HABD/HWD Total installation cost for 1,615 km = €807.5 million €3250 / installation. Total installation cost for 14,450 units = €47 million €250k / installation Total installation cost for 3,530 €882.5 million Annual additional maintenance cost €8 million €3000 / installation (lubricant top-up) Annual additional maintenance cost €43 million Approx. 30 hours per year (supplier info) Annual additional maintenance cost €5.3 million Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 19 Agenda 1. Background 2. Assessment Methodology 3. Measure Effectiveness Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 20 Our Assessment of Derailment Risk Reduction Potential Measure P1-Check Rail P2-Track Lubrication P10&12-HABD/HWD P11-BAM P13-WLID/WIM P15-Bogie Hunting Detector P16-Wheel Profile P18-Track Geometry P19-Clearance Flange Groove P28-Roller Cages F6-Anti Lock Device F7-Sliding Wheel Detector M1a-Derail Det All Freight M1a-Derail Det All DG M1a-Derail Det RID Avoided Avoided Track Fatalities Damage (km) 0.16 35 0.09 20 0.47 70 0.41 63 0.59 104 0.29 63 0.14 30 0.36 85 0.04 6 0.29 44 0.17 28 0.06 10 0.96 0.85 0.12 Annual Benefits Avoided Avoided Avoided Wagon Operation Environmental Damage (number) Disruption (hrs) Events 109 751 3 61 422 2 270 1889 8 240 1673 7 366 2542 10 199 1377 5 95 657 2 280 1941 7 23 164 1 169 1180 6 99 693 3 35 241 1 341 45 9 379 50 10 2881 380 76 17 4 1 Derails prevented 23 13 53 47 74 42 20 58 4.5 33 20 7 Severe derailments saved 76 10 2 A more comprehensive list of measures and benefits assessment is provided in our B2 report. Relates to damage reduction potential, not cost. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 21 Discussion Assessment relates to the potential for improvement, given the existing status of measures deployed to prevent derailments. Biggest potential for improvement relates to addressing track geometry defects, improving hot axle box detection and wheel defects. Other areas we will consider on a qualitative basis are rolling stock maintenance. However measures that do not have such a large benefit can still be efficient if they are low cost. Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 22 End of Session - Any Questions Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 23 Safeguarding life, property and the environment www.dnv.com Freight train derailment risk model 29 September 2011 24