Weapons Proliferation
and Global Security
Definitions:
• Proliferation – “the
rapid increase in the
number and
destructive capability
of armaments
[weapons].”
• Security – Freedom
from risk or danger,
safety.
• Global Security –
integrated relationship
between globalization
and its impact on
individual, national, or
regional security.
Weapons Proliferation – Key Terms
• Vertical Proliferation – Development and
stockpiling of armaments in one country
• Horizontal Proliferation – Spread of weapons
or weapons technology across country borders
• Conventional Weapons – Majority of military
arsenals (ex: guns, tanks, bullets, planes, ships)
• Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) –
special weapons that have a devastating effect
when used even in small numbers (ex: nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons)
Proliferation Matrix
Conventional
Weapons
Weapons of
Mass
Destruction
(WMDs)
Vertical
Proliferation
Horizontal
Proliferation
TYPE I
TYPE II
TYPE III
TYPE IV
Dangers of Conventional Arms
Buildup (Matrix, Type I)
• More arms = increased possibility of
conflicts
• Arms races lead to conflicts (ex: World War I)
• Sophisticated conventional weapons (ex: IEDs
in Iraq, Predator drone)
The Social Costs of Arms Buildups
Military Expenditures (US$ Billions
at Constant 2003 Values)
• More money
for military =
less $ on social
welfare programs
(ex: education)
1996
Africa
Asia
Central
America
Europe
Middle
East
North
America
South
America
World
2000
2005
% Change
8.6
11.1 12.7
116.0 126.0 157.0
3.3
3.6
3.2
+48
+36
-2
236.0 243.0 256.0
39.0 51.5 63.0
+8
+61
328.0 332.0 489.0
+49
15.7
20.6
+31
747.0 784.0 1,001
+34
17.8
More Statistics:
• By 2005, US military spending reached
$478 billion, or 48% of total world military
expenditures
• In 2003, the US was ranked first in the
world in military spending and thirteenth
on infant mortality rates (behind countries
such as Canada, Slovenia, and Cyprus)
Horizontal Proliferation of
Conventional Weapons
(Matrix, Type II)
• Arms Dealers:
*In 2006, the US, Russia, and the United Kingdom were responsible
for 71% of all arms deals. (Ex: US 36 F-16 fighter aircrafts to
Pakistan; Russia’s tanks to Algeria)
• Arms Customers (friends and foes)
*Largest markets for the US – the Middle East and Asia (Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea, India, Japan)
• Deadly returns (US sold weapons to Iraq)
• Civil Wars (legal and illegal arms deals contributed to civil wars in
Afghanistan, Colombia, Congo, Sierra Leone)
• The global arms
trade has grown by
more than 20% in
volume over the last
five years.
• Imports to the
Middle East have
increased by 38%
• China and India
remain the world’s
biggest recipients of
weapons, with
Russia supplying
the vast bulk to both
countries
• In 2007-2008,
South Korea was
the largest arms
importer (supplied
by the US) in
response to a
perceived threat
from North Korea
Vertical Proliferation of WMDs
(Matrix, Type III)
Types of WMDs:
A).Nuclear Weapons – devices with tremendous
explosive power based on atomic fission or fusion
B).Chemical Weapons – poisons that incapacitate,
injure, or kill through their toxic effects on the body. They
can be lethal when vaporized and inhaled in very small
amounts, or when absorbed into the bloodstream
through skin contact. (ex: mustard – gas, nerve gas –
Sarin)
C).Biological Weapons – microorganisms such as
bacteria, viruses, or fungi that can be used to cause
illness or kill the intended target (ex: anthrax)
Why build WMDs?
• Security
*Perceived threat and lack of trust
(Example: The Cold War era, India and
Pakistan)
• Prestige
*National pride and influence (Example:
Attention given to North Korea)
Horizontal Proliferation of
Weapons of Mass Destruction
(Matrix, Type IV)
• The Nuclear Club (countries with known
stockpiles of nuclear weapons)
• High – risk proliferants (ex: Iran and
North Korea)
• Countries that gave up their nuclear
club membership (South Africa, Brazil,
Argentina, Libya, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
and Ukraine)
The Nuclear Club Countries
Nuclear Stockpiles:
Country:
Total Nuclear
Warheads:
China
France
India
Israel
Pakistan
Russia
UK
USA
Total:
410
350
75-110
100-170
50-110
~16,000
200
~10,300
~27,000
High-Risk Proliferants:
• Iran and North Korea:
Chemical and Biological Weapons
Countries Suspected to Possess Chemical
and/or Biological Weapons Capabilities
Chemical Weapons
China
Egypt
India
Iran
Israel
North Korea
Pakistan
Sudan
Syria
Taiwan
Biological Weapons:
China
Pakistan
Egypt
India
Israel
North Korea
Russia
Sudan
Syria
Issues related to WMD Terrorism
• Horizontal spread of WMDs increase the
chance of a future terrorist attack. (AlQaida – actively seeks WMDS)
• Challenge of keeping track of the nuclear
arsenal (former Soviet Union)
• Possibility of a “dirty bomb” attack (dirty
bomb – combination of radioactive
materials with conventional explosives)
Global Solutions to Control WMDs:
The Non-Proliferation Regime
• Historic background
• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
• Non-Proliferation initiatives
Historic Background:
• President Truman’s proposal to place all
nuclear materials and technology under
the UN control (1940s)
• The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
(1960s)
• The Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear
Weapons in Latin America (1967)
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty
• Open for signatures in 1968
• Ambitious goals for both vertical and
horizontal proliferation
Examples: Article 1, Article 2, and Article 6
Non-Proliferation Initiatives:
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test
Ban Treaty
• Advocates ban on all nuclear testing
• Open for signatures in 1996
• To become international law - all 44
countries that are known to possess
nuclear reactors must sign
• India and Pakistan have not signed the
treaty (US Senate also rejected it)
Limitations to Controlling the
Spread of WMDs
• State sovereignty
• “Peaceful purposes” argument
• Supply concern – “trigger list” – difficult to
control and enforce
Global Security, Proliferation and
Preemption
• Case Study: The IRAQ WAR
• Will diplomacy work with North Korea
and Iran?
QUESTIONS TO PONDER:
• Is the proliferation of conventional weapons
a challenge that the global community can
ever meet? Why or why not?
• Should government leaders use military
force to stop would – be proliferants from
threatening their security? Explain.
• Are you an optimist or a pessimist on the
question of weapons proliferation and global
security? Explain.
Global Security
• “Global security references the integrated
relationship between globalization and its
impact on individual, national, and regional
security.
• Large and small states are threatened by
the vulnerabilities created through
interdependence …”
Snarr and Snarr, pp.77-78
What is the Definition of Power
in International Relations?
• Power – political or national strength; an
ability to do something or act.
Five Ways of “Power” Application:
• Hard power
• Soft power
• Asymmetric power
• Information power
• The power of nature
Hard power
• Definition: “those assets that determine the
position of a state relative to its peers in the
international system, including geography,
population, and military capabilities.”
• Assumptions – anarchic (“dog eat dog”) world,
each state’s primary responsibility is security,
mistrust of other states.
• Based on resources and ability to project power
• Globalization and competition for resources
impact hard power of individual states
Soft Power
• Definition: “the general reputation of a country
in the international system, combined with its
ability to achieve international outcomes through
persuasion (diplomacy) rather than military
force.”
• Exercise of hard power could result in
significant loss of soft power
• “Soft power balancing” – actions that do not
directly challenge the hard military power of a
strong state, but instead delay, complicate, and
increase the costs to that strong state of using
its hard military power.
Asymmetric Power
• Definition: “the disproportionate capability
of weak states and nonstate actors to
challenge powerful states in the
international system.”
• Examples: terrorist attacks, videotaped
beheadings, computer viruses.
Information Power
• Definition: capacity of popular
movements, NGOs, and individual actors
to engage and impact security outcomes
by using media and other technology
based communication devices.
• Issues to consider:
(a) censorship and the internet
(b) communication infrastructure
The Power of Nature
• Definition: Impact of global environmental
problems on state capabilities.
• Issues to consider:
(a) Rapid population growth
(b) Access to clean water
(c) Global warming
Global Security Challenge Terrorism
• Global war on terror – can it be won?
• New aspects of global terrorist threat
- Transnational
- Use of “powers” by global terrorist
networks
Education and Action
• Education – key to national and global
security