Deborah Elms September 2012 isdelms@ntu.edu.sg 1 Eleven countries, three continents, diverse levels of economic development ◦ Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Vietnam “High quality, 21st century” agreement Accession clause ◦ Open to new members, especially from APEC Fourteen formal negotiating rounds held, starting in March 2010 Canada and Mexico join in 15th round, Dec ‘12 2 1. Substantial scope ◦ Including “behind the border” measures 2. Depth ◦ Limited sensitivities 3. Shared set of norms and commitments Beyond bilateral arrangements ◦ Address noodle bowl problems of overlapping PTAs Attractive to developed and developing country members Note: 21st century, high quality has not been defined by government negotiators 3 Section 1: Origins of the TPP ◦ P4 agreement, US templates, development ◦ Historical review of negotiations (thru Nov 2011) Section 2: Details of agreement ◦ What would a high quality deal look like anyway? ◦ How close does the TPP appear to come to ideal? ◦ Chapters cover: market access in goods, ROOs, services, investment, IPR, regulatory coherence, labor, environment, potential export rules Section 3: Connection of TPP to other PTAs ◦ Latin America, APEC, ASEAN, WTO, Regionalism 4 Existing, overlapping, FTAs pose major problems: most serious in goods Has severely complicated negotiations over both tariff reductions and over ROOs Complex structural negotiating positions ◦ United States and Peru ◦ Rest in a “plurilateral” offer on goods Officially, no exclusions Ten-year timeline At end of 10 years, may be all sorted 5 6 Specific areas of concern ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Dairy Sugar Textiles Footwear Tobacco Autos? Quantitative restrictions (TRQs): not yet dealt with (complicated because also in PTAs) Rules of origin ◦ Product-specific ROOs so far ◦ Yarn-forward likely for most textiles 7 Deadline of 2012 not going to be met Perhaps APEC, November 2013? ◦ Depends in part on Canada, Mexico ◦ Japan? Political level decisions needed Tensions within agreement-managing strategic and economic needs Accession procedures into TPP in future? Status as a “living” agreement High quality: compared to what benchmark? 8 For market access in goods ◦ No exclusions, including sensitive products in agriculture ◦ No special provisions for textiles ◦ Phase out of quantitative restrictions? Liberal Rules of Origin criteria In services ◦ Liberalize on basis of negative list ◦ Modest sensitivities allowed New topics, new ideas brought to table 9 Market Access-Goods State-Owned Enterprises Agriculture Textiles Technical Barriers to Trade Rules of Origin Sanitary, Phytosanitary Measures Customs Cooperation Investment Services Financial Services Telecommunications E-Commerce Business Mobility Government Procurement Competition Intellectual Property Labor Environment Capacity Building Trade Remedies 10 TPP members committed to including “new” issues—21st century topics Several topics lumped into horizontal basket ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Small and medium enterprise (SME) support Regulatory coherence Competitiveness Supply chain management Development As negotiations continue, innovative features increasingly watered down 11 Simple Average Final WTO Bound Tariff (2010) 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 Total 20.0 Ag 10.0 Non-Ag 0.0 Non-Ag Total 12 Simple Average WTO MFN Applied Tariff (2009) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Total 5.0 Ag 0.0 Non-Ag Non-Ag Total 13 WTO Applied Tariff Rates 2009 Animal products Dairy products 140.0 Fruit, vegetables, plants 120.0 Coffee, tea 100.0 Cereals & preparations 80.0 Oilseeds, fats & oils 60.0 Sugars and confectionery 40.0 Beverages & tobacco 20.0 Cotton Vietnam United States Singapore Peru New Zealand Mexico Malaysia Other agricultural Chile Canada Brunei Australia 0.0 Fish & fish products Minerals & metals Petroleum 14 Manufactures, n.e.s. Transport equipment Electrical machinery Non-electrical machinery Leather, footwear, etc. Clothing Textiles Wood, paper, etc. Chemicals Petroleum Minerals & metals Fish & fish products Other agricultural Cotton Beverages & tobacco Sugars and confectionery Oilseeds, fats & oils Cereals & preparations Coffee, tea Animal products Dairy products Fruit, vegetables, plants WTO Applied Tariff Rates 2009 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Australia Brunei Canada Chile Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Peru Singapore United States Vietnam 15 Regulatory coherence Small and medium enterprises ◦ Especially focused on TBT issues ◦ Single regulatory agency? ◦ Binding? ◦ Folded into competitiveness and business facilitation Development ◦ Timelines ◦ Capacity building ◦ Financing 16 Maintain own labor laws as per 1998 ILO Declaration Not core ILO provisions Will apply to EPZs and free trade zones How to handle complaints? Connection between TPP and previous FTA commitments on labor Dispute settlement? 17 How to push conservation—at TPP or national level? Uphold commitments under signed MEAs Conservation of natural resources and wildlife ◦ Includes fish, logging, trade in wildlife, CITES TPP and climate change Public participation? Dispute settlement? 18 State-owned enterprises Export competition ◦ Agricultural subsidies and food aid programs E-commerce rules Extent of dispute settlement ◦ Cross-border data flows and storage facility locations ◦ Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules? ◦ Investor-state? Government procurement Trade remedies 19 TPP is farthest reaching IP FTA yet ◦ Much more intrusive than TRIPS in WTO Access to medicines issues ◦ Data exclusivity, patent linkage, patent term extensions (access window) ◦ Biologics ◦ Drug pricing and reimbursement programs Copyright Trade secrets Local content requirements (for broadcast) 20 Geographical indications Enforcement ◦ Third-party FTA commitments ◦ Compound names ◦ “Commercial scale” ◦ “Willful” infringement ◦ ACTA vs. TPP provisions Internet service providers ◦ 3 step test ◦ Fair use exceptions ◦ Retransmission 21