Inside the Copenhagen
Climate Negotiations:
The Critical Roles of the U.S. and China
Mark D. Levine, PhD
Leader, China Energy Group,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
China Energy Group at
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室
中国能源研究室
• Established 1988 成立于1988年
• Unique in the world 有独特的优势
• Mission: China Energy Group works collaboratively with groups in
China and elsewhere to:
宗旨：通过与中国和其他地区的机构的合作来：
-- enhance the capabilities of Chinese
institutions that promote energy efficiency and
加强中国促进能效的机构的能力建设
-- understand the dynamics of energy use in
China.
2
Key Successes
主要成就
• Driving force for Chinese adoption of appliance energy
efficiency standards 中国采用家电能效标准的主要推动力
• Performed pilot project of industry efficiency
agreements as a forerunner to China’s national
industrial energy efficiency policy 作为先行者开展工业
能效协议试点项目
• Created two institutions that are leaders in energy
efficiency policy: the Energy Foundation China
Sustainable Energy Program (in SF) and the Beijing
Energy Conservation Center (in Beijing) 建立了两个能效
政策的领导性机构：能源基金会中国可持续能源项目（在旧
金山）和北京能源效率中心（北京）
• Trained more than 300 Chinese in various aspects of
energy efficiency 在能效的各方面国内培训人员超过300人
3
The key parties to the negotiation:
1. United States
2. China
3. European Union
4. Developing World
Two parties will set the tone:
U.S. and China
E. U. and developing countries will be very active in
discussions but will follow the lead of the U.S. and China.
China has committed to a 40-45% reduction in its CO2
emission intensity relative to 2005 intensity levels.
The U.S. cannot make an official commitment, because this
will require Congressional action. But President Obama can
and will state his position on greenhouse gas limits.
As a consequence, Copenhagen is likely to serve as a basis for
official decisions that will take place on or before the 2010 meeting
of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Mexico.
Question: what is the significance of
the 40%-45% reduction in CO2
emissions intensity in China?
Note: CO2 emissions intensity – CO2/unit gross
domestic product (GDP)
Background on Energy and Carbon
Dioxide Emissions in China
China’s Energy & Economic Growth
1,000
900
800
1980 = 100
700
600
GDP
500
国内生产总值
400
300
200
Energy
100
0
1980
能源消费
1985
Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
1990
1995
2000
However, from 2003-2005, energy
intensity increased for the first time
since 1980 with very significant
consequences
Annual CO2 Emissions: US & China
million tons carbon dioxide
6,000
5,000
US
4,000
3,000
China
2,000
1,000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: US annual emissions amounts reported by US EIA in the 2006 Annual Energy Review and 2007 Flash Estimate; China emissions are derived from
revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by
LBNL
Nonetheless
Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related
CO2 Emissions – 1950-2004
tons CO2/person
25
US 美国
20
15
10
Global Average 全球平均
5
China 中国
0
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
Source: China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC
carbon emission coefficients by LBNL; China population data from NBS and US Census (for 1950-51); global and American emissions data from Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; global and American population data from US Census
• Recent newspaper articles state that
China’s commitment to reduce CO2
emissions intensity by 40% to 45% by
2020 is of little significance.
• I respectively disagree.
• Judged by the standards of all other developing
countries, China’s commitment is very significant
• Achieving the goal of 40-45% reduction in CO2
by 2020 will require very significant policies for
China to contain the economic forces that are
driving energy demand
•
Restraining these forces will require continued
application of very stringent policies
•
•
•
•
•
Tougher efficiency standards—for appliances and
for motor vehicles--than those in the U.S.
More low or zero carbon energy sources per capita
than any country except France or a hydropower-rich
nation
Greater investment in wind, photovoltaics, nuclear
power than any country (even on a per capita basis)
Among the highest energy prices in the developing
world
Most importantly, If the developing world were
able to achieve China’s target, projected global
CO2 emissions would be cut by 50 to 75%world
were able to follow China’s example (40-45% intensity
reduction for 2020), then global emissions growth
through 2020 would be cut by more than 50% from
• It is a common belief that China’s CO2 emissions
will continue to grow throughout this century and
will dominate the world’s emissions. We believe
this is not likely to be the case because:
– Appliances, floor area, vehicles, roadways,
etc. will saturate some time between 2020
and 2030
– When this happens, China will have (on a
total and per capita basis) larger low or zero
CO2 emissions energy supply system than the
United Statest United States by a considerable
margin
• Unless the Chinese develop a profligate
lifestyle—modeling themselves on a
certain country in North America—China
will have leveled off in its CO2 emissions
at a much lower per capita level than the
United States, Europe, or Japan!!
Thank you!
Mark Levine
MDLevine@lbl.gov
Myths
Not used in presentation; included in
case there are questions that can best be
answered by a power point.
My topic concerns the myths –
often pernicious – surrounding
China’s energy demand, supply,
prices and associated CO2
emissions
我的主题是关于关于中国能源需求、
供给、价格和相关二氧化碳排放的迷
思，这些迷思通常是有害无益的
Myth: China has paid little
attention to energy efficiency,
preferring to build countless
coal-fired power plants instead
迷思：
China’s Energy & Economic Growth
中国的能源消费与经济增长
1,000
900
800
1980 = 100
700
600
GDP
500
国内生产总值
400
300
200
Energy
100
0
1980
能源消费
1985
Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
数据来源：劳伦斯-伯克利国家实验室，中国能源与环境研究室
1990
1995
2000
Industrial Energy Intensities are Declining
工业能源强度正在下降
/2000
千
克
标
准
煤
年
人
民
币
元
2.0
Smelting & rolling of ferrous metals
1.8
金属冶炼及压延加工
1.6
1.4
Petroleum refining &
coke production
1.2
Non-metal
mineral
products
1.0
非金属矿物制品
Non-ferrous metals
mining and casting
0.8
kgce/RMB (2000)
Chemicals 化工
Paper 造纸
0.6
0.4
0.2
Coal
mining
Electricity production
电力
Textiles 纺织
0
Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
资料来源：劳伦斯-伯克利国家实验室，中国能源与环境研究室
Improving energy efficiency
in industry is crucial because
industry is 70% of total
energy demand
Note: comparisons of CO2
emissions are on a per
capita basis
This is the only measure that makes sense.
Would you compare Monaco and the
United States based on total CO2
emissions, or on per capita emissions?
Myth: China, because of its
enormous coal use, has
emitted more CO2 than any
other nation
Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related
CO2 Emissions – 1950-2004
1950-2004年全球、中国和美国的人均能源相关二氧化碳排放量
US 美国
tons CO2/person
/
吨
二
氧
化
碳
人
Global Average 全球平均
China 中国
Myth: China’s per capita coal
consumption is the highest in
the world
Per Capita Coal Consumption, Various Countries
不同国家的人均煤炭消耗
/
人
均
煤
炭
消
耗
（
吨
石
油
当
量
每
人
）
Myth: China’s vast coal reserves,
which it is bound to use,
will swamp any effort to tackle
global climate
/
人
均
煤
炭
探
明
储
量
（
吨
每
人
）
Per-Capita Proven Coal Reserves (tonnes/person)
Per Capita Coal Reserves, Various Countries
不同国家的人均煤炭数量
4000
3,645
3500
3000
2500
2,022
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1,109 1,009
805
730
400
197
50
37
Myth: China is
hogging the world’s
oil imports
Global Oil Supply (blue), Traded oil (light blue), Chinese
oil consumption (red), Chinese oil imports (yellow)
世界石油供给（蓝色），石油贸易（浅蓝色），中国石油消
耗（红色），中国石油进口（黄色）
90
World Demand
全球需求量
80
World Oil Trade
全球石油贸易量
China Demand
中国石油需求量
China Net Imports
中国石油净进口
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
-10
1990
/
百
万
桶
石
油
每
天
million barrels/day
70