OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050:
The consequences of Inaction
EEB Annual Conference
Brussels, 1 October 2012
Kumi Kitamori, Counsellor,
OECD Environment Directorate
Linking Economy and Environment
Population & demographics
Capital supply
Natural resources
Yield
efficiency
Fuel prices
Energy
efficiency
Economic growth
Bioenergy
Energy use
Local air
pollution
(under
construction)
GHG emissions
Health &
environment
Climate
change
Land use
Deforestation
Water stress
& water
quality
Biodiversity
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS:
World economy will nearly quadruple by 2050
Projections for real gross domestic product: Baseline, 2010-2050
OECD
BRIICS
RoW
US
2030
2035
China
India
Billions of constant 2010 USD
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2040
2045
2050
Note: values using constant 2010 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates.
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Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.
CLIMATE CHANGE:
GHG emissions to increase by 50% by 2050
GHG emissions by region, Baseline
OECD AI
Russia & rest of AI
Rest of BRIICS
ROW
GtCO2e
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
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Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.
CLIMATE CHANGE: Human and economic costs of
more extreme weather events, crops & infrastructure at risk
Change in annual temperature between 1990 and 2050
Source: (OECD, 2012). OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from
IMAGE model suite
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HEALTH & ENV : Urban air pollution to become the top
environmental cause of premature deaths by 2050
Global premature deaths from
selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
Particulate Matter
Ground-level ozone
2010
Unsafe Water
Supply and
Sanitation*
2030
2050
Indoor Air Pollution
premature deaths from
particulate air pollution to
double to 3.6 million/yr by
2050 worldwide
Malaria
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Deaths (millions of people)
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Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2005; output from IMAGE
Deaths per million inhabitants
HEALTH & ENV: OECD group are likely to have one of
the highest premature death rates from ground-level ozone
Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: Baseline
Number of deaths per million inhabitants
2010
2030
2050
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
OECD
Sub-Saharan
Africa
India
China
South +SE
Asia
Indonesia
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
Other countries
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WATER:
Global water demand to increase by 55% by 2050
Km3
Global water demand: Baseline scenario
6 000
5 000
electricity
4 000
manufacturing
3 000
livestock
2 000
domestic
1 000
Rapidly growing
water demand from
cities, industry and
energy suppliers will
challenge water for
irrigation to 2050.
irrigation
0
2000
2050
World
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Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
WATER: Water pollution from urban sewage to increase 3-fold
Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: baseline
OECD
India
China
Africa
Rest of the world
Millions of tonnes of N / year
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: OECD
Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from
IMAGE
2000
2050
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BIODIVERSITY:
Global biodiversity to decline by a further 10% by 2050
Biodiversity: Terrestrial mean species abundance (MSA)
by region, Baseline
2010
2020
2030
2050
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
World
RoW
Southern
Africa
Indonesia
China
South Asia
Russia
Brazil
Australia/NZ
Japan/Korea
Europe
0%
North
America
Mean species abundance
80%
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BIODIVERSITY
Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
100%
Infr+Encr+Frag
90%
MSA
Climate Change
Nitrogen
Former Land-Use
80%
Forestry
Pasture
Bioenergy
70%
Food Crop
60%
Remaining MSA
0- 50%
2010
2030
2050
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
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POLICY ACTION:
What green growth policies to avoid
a bleak future?
 Make pollution more costly than greener
alternatives
 Value and price the natural assets and
ecosystem services
 Remove environmentally harmful subsidies
 Devise effective regulations and standards
 Encourage green innovation
 Facilitate better consumer choices
• Mainstream green growth in economic &
sectoral policies!
• Maximise synergies and co-benefits
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Thank you!
www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto2050
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