Will Climate Change be our
Demise... or our Salvation?
Bioneers Conference, 2012
Sustain Dane
Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director
Global Health Institute
Nelson Institute & Dept. Population Health Sci.
Changes in sea ice extent
Sept 1980
Siberia
The Arctic sea ice cover
Greenland
Alaska
September 1980: 7.8 million square kilometers
Courtesy: Don Perovich
Changes in sea ice extent
Sept 2007
Siberia
Greenland
Alaska
September 2007: 4.2 million square kilometers
Courtesy: Don Perovich
HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Heat Waves
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes
Air Pollution &
Aeroallergens
Respiratory diseases,
e.g., COPD & Asthma
Vector-borne
Diseases
Malaria
Dengue
Encephalitis
Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Water-borne
Diseases
Cholera
Cyclospora
Cryptosporidiosis
Campylobacter
Leptospirosis
1
2
3°C by yr. 2100
40 cm “ “
IPCC estimates
Water resources &
food supply
Mental Health &
Patz, 1998
Heat Stress
Cardiorespiratory
failure
Environmental
Refugees
Malnutrition
Diarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Forced Migration
Overcrowding
Infectious diseases
Human Conflicts
HEAT WAVE - EUROPE
70,000 deaths
in 11 days
(Robine et al. 2008)
Heat Index Summer 2003
Russia 2010:
1 month heatwave (>100°)
55,000 excess deaths
1 million acres burnt
25% drop in crop yields
US$15 billion loss
'Mega-heatwaves' such as the 2003 and 2010 events
broke the 500-yr long seasonal temperature records
over 50% of Europe.Probability of 'mega-heatwaves’
will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40
years.
Barriopedro et al Science 21 March 2011 10.1126/science.1201224
Courtesy: Alistair Woodward
Climate change:
It’s not just
about warming.
USA: Combined sewer overflows
(CSOs)
1.2 trillion gal of sewage & stormwater a year
discharged during combined sewer overflows
– would keep Niagara Falls roaring for 18 days
Courtesy: Kellogg Schwab
In Future, when it
rains…it will pour.
By mid-century, Chicago
region may experience 50120% increase in CSO
events
(Patz et al. 2008)
Globally Averaged
U.S. CCSP, 2008
Future
summers
warmer than
warmest on
record
Today’s 1 billion
at risk for hunger
could double by
mid-century.
Battisi and Naylor, Science
2009
Americans emit 6-times the global average
CO2 per capita
Distribution of 200,000 deaths/yr from
recent warming.
.
Patz, Gibbs et al. 2007
Discussing Ethics of Climate Change
Oct. 2011, Daramsala, India
“If you know
pollution kills,
your country is
not showing much
compassion…corr
ect?”
Could Health Benefits Make
Combating Climate Change
Free?
…or even a net gain?
The opportunity for improving
health determinants
We can reduce:
The 900,000 annual deaths from
urban air pollution
The loss of 1.9 million deaths,
and 19 million years of
healthy life, from physical
inactivity
WHO, 2007
Asthma and Air Pollution
• 1996 Summer Olympic
games in Atlanta
• Peak morning traffic
decreased 23% and peak
ozone levels decreased 28%
• Asthma-related emergency room visits by
children decreased 42%
• Children’s emergency visits for non-asthma
causes did not change during same period
Friedman et al. JAMA 2001;285:897
Adult Obesity
Only 31 years
Status of Americans
• Americans are, on average, 17 pounds heavier than
we were 30 years ago!
• ≈ 15 % of children and adolescents age 6-19 are
overweight (CDC 2004).
• 20.8 million people have diabetes (7% of the
population) (CDCP 2005)
• 60% of American adults do not meet recommended
levels of physical activity, and 25% are completely
sedentary (DHHS, 1996)
40% of trips by car are < 2
miles
(Dept of Transportation)
Sustainable transportation:
Buses of Bogota
Our Midwest
Transportation Study
…assumes that all round trips of
5 miles or less could be
accomplished through alternative
modes (non ICE) transportation.
Grabow et al. 2012
11 Midwestern Cities
From transportation…to human health
What are the
associated emissions?
(CO2, NO2, SO2, VOCs,
PM, etc.).
Research question #2:
Assume all round trips
of 5 miles or less could
be accomplished by non
internal combustion
engine transportation.
Technology &
Activity Scenarios
What are the health
impacts of predicted
pollution levels?
How do these
emissions impact air
pollution?
Ozone
Grabow et al. 2012
20% fewer car trips:
Change in air pollution
• >500 lives saved/yr
• 100,000s of Hospital admissions
avoided
• >$4 billion in avoided mortality and
And if thosehealth
short trips
(< 5
mi. round-trip)
care
costs
were done by bicycle, the fitness benefit
would save >700 lives /yr and another $4
billion dollars in avoided mortality costs
Grabow et al (2012)
Key messages that emerged
Health effects by disease (London)
Courtesy: Sir Andy Haines
Change in disease burden
Change in premature
deaths
10-19%
1950-4240
10-18%
1190-2580
Dementia
7-8%
200-240
Breast cancer
12-13%
200-210
Road traffic crashes
19-39%
50-80
Ischaemic heart
disease
Cerebrovascular
disease
Woodcock et al, 2007
Ethiopia: Climate-Resilient
Green Economy
Hawassa
Bahir Dar
Addis Ababa
Good biking infrastructure
In only 6 years, the
gasoline rickshaw has
taken over the streets!
Madison’s Sister Cities
Ainaro, East Timor
Purpose: … enhance…
Madison’s involvement in
…global economy, cultural
environment, educational,
humanitarian and business
opportunities for Madison
companies in the regions or
countries of our Sister Cities.
Pinmaps.net | Print Map | Madison Sister Cities
Arcatao, El Salvador
http://www.pinmaps.net/PrintMap.aspx?MapId=12758&Ver
Notes:
Madison Sister Cities
has 8 map points available.
Camaguey, Cuba
Freiburg, Germany
Mantova, Italy
Obihiro, Japan
Vilnus, Luthuania
(Madison Common Council)
Map Only
Print
Can a sister city in
Ethiopia become the
model city for the rest
of Africa?
Next year in
Hawassa
and Bahir
Dar?
Bikeable Africa Initiative
BIKEABLEAFRICA.ORG
Day 1 is today!
Thank
you very Idea
much!
The Wisconsin