Globalization:
Manifestations of the Physical basis of Globalization
a. The Issue
b. The Problem(s)
c. Pathways to a solution
To Larry the scientist – the citizen
C.N. Papanicolas
Jefferson Lab Talk
cnp@cyi.ac.cy
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Globalization
• “Globalization” has entered our ideological and political
interpretational framework strongly and decisively.
• In its name policies and practices are established or justified, which
affect significant aspects of our lives.
• It has supporters and adversaries!
But what is Globalization?
•
A political-economical system, therefore a matter of choice (or
imposition)? A social phenomenon or one with a natural
background?
•
A new phenomenon? Or the reoccurrence of an older one in a new
more intensive form? Is it reversible?
Understanding the above is necessary for the management of
modern societies.
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Concerning Globalization
The term Globalization made its appearance in the 80s and has
been used widely ever since.
There is no commonly accepted definition. It is defined through the
literature that examines the phenomenon.
•
The Lexus and the Olive Tree, understanding Globalization
T.L. Friedman (2000)
•
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
Samuel P. Huntington (1996)
•
The End of History and the Last Man
Francis Fukuyama (1993)
Authors: political scientists, historians, journalists
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Globalization:
According to Thomas L. Friedman:
• Globalization is:
“Globalization is not simply a trend or a fad but is, rather, an
international system. It is the system that has now replaced the old
cold war system…”
• It is not the first, but the second one. The first was in the
period preceding World War I.
“The period of globalization preceding WWI was quite similar to
the one we are living today.”
• Occurrence:
In 1990. Tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the end of the cold
war.
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Globalization:
According to Thomas L. Friedman:
• First period of Globalization: (~1860 -1914)
• Dominated by British pound, navy & culture
• Build around falling transportation costs
• Key technologies: railroad, steamship and the automobile
• Second period of Globalization: (1990 - )
• Dominated by American dollar, military power & culture
• Build around falling telecommunication costs
• Key technologies: microchips, satellites, fiber optics,internet
• Differences: In intensity and extend
“The first era of globalization shrank the world from a size
“large” to a size “medium”, this era of globalization is
shrinking the world from a size “medium” to a size “small”.
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Globalization:
According to Francis Fukuyama:
Globalization is a global political-economical system of a global
society of liberal republics (capitalistic economies),with mutual
respect and co-dependence
In Fukuyama’s neo-liberal and neo-Hegelian analysis he points
to the following:
• This system constitutes “The End of History” meaning that
there will not follow more advanced systems.
• History has or had “directiοnality”, with natural sciences
playing a regulatory role.
He argues: We entered this last stage of history with the
collapse of the “existing socialism“ systems (1990)
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Globalization:
According to Samuel Huntington:
He does not examine “Globalization” per se. He examines the
political-economical system that was established after the end of
the cold war and argues that the main confrontation that will take
place on a global scale is that of “Clashes of Civilizations“
His theory became quite popular after September 11th .
From his impressive analysis, the following arise:
• He dismisses the notion of “End of History” (Fukuyama).
• We are in an unprecedented historical phase, both multi-cultural
and multi-polar.
• This clash of civilizations will dominate in the new century, but
other systems will follow
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Globalization:
According to the “Left” view
(Noam Chomsky, M. Hardt & A. Negri “Empire”...,etc)
In general agrees with the characteristics of other treatments.
In addition it argues:
• Correlated with the economical and cultural domination
of the American Imperialism.
• There exist alternative and better management
solutions of the world.
• It occurred in 1990 with the end of the cold war
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Concerning Globalization (ΙΙ):
According to the most widely accepted view:
Globalization is:
• The dominating status quo after the Cold War.
Main characteristics:
• Political and Economical plexus covering and affecting the
whole planet
• Worldwide movement of goods, people, and information
(in a capitalistic economy)
• Science and Technology have lead us to this point
Occurrence:
• In 1990! The tearing down of the Berlin Wall and in
general the end of the Cold War.
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Concerning Globalization (ΙIΙ):
Questions and problems:
The criteria being used are unsatisfactory, do not answer the
following:
• How many Globalizations have occurred (Hellenistic,
Roman, British, American...)?
• Why the one we are experience is the last?
Occurence:
• It can not be associated with the end of the Cold War,
unless Globalization is a synonym of American hegemony.
Main Characteristics:
• The worldwide transfer or information, goods and people
is certainly important. It has been taking place since
ancient times. However a threshold needs to be identified.
KEY ISSUE: Identification of “thresholds”, “phase transitions”,
“critical points”
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Concerning Globalization (ΙV):
CLAIM: Globalization is a new qualitative phase for
human existence on this planet, characterised by
objective physical attributes. It is important to seek
characteristics of this “Phase Change” and
“Thresholds” marking the transition to this change.
• Which is the previous and which is the next phase?
• In which quantities (Physical, Financial, Social) can we observe
it; At which values (does the phase transition occur)?
Remark:
The worldwide transfer of information, goods and people is
certainly important. It has been taking place since ancient times.
However a Threshold needs to be identified.
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Globalization:
Scales and Characteristic Quantities
1.
2.
3.
Distance
Communication
Energy
We need to find in these quantities, thresholds that
signify the transition to Globalization
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Concerning Earth and
Human Societies
Physical parameters of the planet: How many people and with
which kind of activity could this planet sustain?
This question could serve as Ariadne's thread in our quest to find
the characteristics of the “Phase Change” we seek.
Planet Earth
•
•
•
•
Diameter: 12 740 km
Land Surface: 148 000 000 km2
Solar Power intake: 89 PW
Population: 6,9 Billion
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1. DISTANCE
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Human Travel
Travel Horizon:
•Distance of functional human travel. The distance that an
average person can travel with the technological and
financial means available to him.
 Chronically and Technologically defined
Travel Horizon limit:
Half of Earth’s Perimeter: ~20 000 km
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Human Travel
Travel Horizon:
The distance that an average person can travel with the
available technological and financial means.
Working Assumption
Assume a 24 hour travel.
Assume a financial limit equal to a week’s salary
Examples
• On foot – On horseback: 100 km
• Automobile or Train: 2 000 km
• Airplane: 25 000 km
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Human Travel
Air Transport limit (from Chicago, USA)
Jet Engine
10 hours
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Human Travel
The financial limit for Transport
$7.000
Travel Cost from New York to London (return)
$6.000
Fare
Per Capita Monthly Income
Monthly Worker Salary
$5.000
$4.000
$3.000
$2.000
$1.000
$0
1946
1966
1972
2004
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1. Distance
The Threshold for Human Travel which signifies
a transition to Globalization, was crossed by
mankind, very recently, in the 1990s.
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2. Communication
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Communication
Information Transfer
Horizon for Information Transmission:
•
The distance that a substantial amount of information can be
transmitted with the given technological and financial means.
Working Assumption
Assume a 24 hour transmission period.
Assume a cost limit equal to a day’s salary
Amount of information: 50 Books ≈ an Encyclopedia (~ 10Gbit)
Technological limits
•
On foot or on Horseback: 100 km
•
Automobile or Train: 2 000 km
•
Airplane: 25 000 km
•
Electronically: ∞
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Communication
Communication Costs
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Communication
Technology and Communications Cost
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Communication
Cost of Transmitting Information
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3. Energy & Power
•
•
Energy Consumption
Destructive Power
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Energy & Power
Energy Consumption Threshold
Extremely Difficult Problem
• Non-linearities
• Related to the method of Energy production with social and
technological restrictions
• Greenhouse effect
• Nuclear waste
The Scale is set by Solar Energy intake and
the tolerance of the ecosystem to tolerate
deviations from it.
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Energy & Power
Incoming Solar Radiation
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Energy & Power
The Greenhouse Effect
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Energy & Power
Global Energy Balance
• Incoming Solar Power ~ 0.175 x 109 Gw = 175 Pw
• About 1% (1500 Tw) powers wind activity
• Incoming Solar Power reaching Earth’s surface
(ISP) ~ 168 W/m2
• Global Energy Consumption (2004) ~1.5 x 104 Gw
( = 10-4 Solar Power! )
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Energy & Power
Energy Consumption Threshold
Extremely Difficult Problem
• Non-linearities
• Related to the method of Energy production with social and
technological restrictions
• Greenhouse effect
• Nuclear waste
First rough approximation:
Assume that it cannot exceed a fraction of the available wind
power. Let us assume 10%.
• Global Power Limit 1.5 x 105 GW = 150 TW
• Local Power Density limit 85 W/ m2 (=0.5 ISP)
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Hurricanes
Est. Energy: 66,5 Pwh
Power: 3 - 300 TW
Hurricane Katrina (August 2005)
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Energy & Power
Power Consumption Threshold
First rough approximation:
Assume that it cannot exceed a fraction of the
available wind power. Let us assume 10%.
• Global Power Limit: 1.5 x 105 GW = 150 TW
• Local Power Density limit: 85 W/ m2 (=0.5 ISP)
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Energy & Power
Energy Consumption as a fraction of the Incoming Solar Energy
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Energy & Power
NYC: Power Consumption
0,90
0,80
0,70
0,60
Local
Limit
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
Ratio to Solar Input
0,10
0,00
1910
1950
1970
1980
1990
2000
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3b. Desrtuctive power
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Hiroshima
Hiroshima Bomb = 0.018 Mt
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(Castle Romeo = 15 Mt)
We have crossed the threshold of complete
annihilation of our planet
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Energy & Power
Destructive Power/ Energy
•
•
•
•
•
2nd WW: 2 750 Gwh (= 2.15 Mt TNT)
Vietnam: 11 200 Gwh (= 8.75 Mt TNT)
Hiroshima Bomb = 0.018 Mt
Castle Romeo (US) = 15 Mt
Tzar Bomba (USSR) = 60 Mt = 37 x106 GWh= 37 PWh
We have crossed this threshold!
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Thresholds
1. Distance
The threshold of Human Travel signifying a transition
to Globalization, was crossed by mankind quite
recently in the 1990s.
2. Communication
The threshold of Communication (information
transmission) signifying a transition to Globalization,
was crossed by mankind recently, in the 1980s.
3. Energy Consumption
The threshold of Energy Consumption signifying a
transition to Globalization, was crossed by
mankind in the 1970s.
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Management of
Globalised Societies
The first bad examples


Environmental Management, Greenhouse Effect
Management of Destructive Power
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Climate Change: Global Warming
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Atmospheric Limit
We have reached the limit of global tolerance for the change in our
atmosphere’s composition.
a Phase Change?
•It is clear that for the first time in human history we have reached a
point when we have changed the climate of our planet
We must however point out that the Greenhouse effect does not
offer a limit in Energy Consumption. Only in the production of
certain gases and as a result the production of energy through
specific processes (for example fossil fuel)
Issues to be addressed:
•Better understanding of the problem (research…)
•Confront the problem (mitigation, adaptation)
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Electricity Consumption
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Ecological Footprint
• The Ecological Footprint is a resource management
tool that measures how much land and water area a
human population requires to produce the resources
it consumes and to absorb its wastes under prevailing
technology.
• Today, humanity's Ecological Footprint is over 23%
larger than what the planet can regenerate. In other
words, it now takes more than one year and two
months for the Earth to regenerate what we use in a
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single year.
Ecological Footprint
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Ecological Footprint
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Final Remarks
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Final Remarks
For the first time in human history we have the
ability to:
•
Destroy or radically change the ecosystem we inhabit
–
–
•
With chosen destructive processes (nuclear or biological warfare )
Involuntary, e.g. Climate changes due to CO2 emissions
We have unquestionably exceeded the planetary scale
in many parameters (e.g. communication and
information transfer, power densities )
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Trinity
TIME: July 16 1945, 5:29:45 A.M. (Mountain War Time)
PLACE: Trinity Site Zero, Alamogordo Test Range,
Jornada del Muerto desert, New Mexico USA
Final Remarks
As citizens of this planet, as scientists what
can we do?
Living in a Globalized Earth
• Education, Science and Society
•
Louis Hubert Lyautey
 When his gardener objected when asked to plant a tree which
would bare fruit after a hundred years, he said:
“ We don’t have a moment to
loose. You must plant it today! ”
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Thank You!
Helen & Larry, Thank You!
My best wishes for the next challenge.
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Effects of Global Warming
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Ecological Footprint
by HDI, nation and population
Area that meets
minimum criteria for
sustainability
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Climate Change: Rising Sea levels
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