Distributed Energy Generation for Homes
March 22, 2012
Clint Wheelock
President
Agenda
• Pike Research Introduction
• Residential Energy Use in the United States
• Introduction to Micro Renewables, Residential
CHP, and Residential Energy Storage
• Connecting the Dots in Residential Smart Energy
• Current Market Size
• State of Commercial Availability
• Incentives and Barriers
• Business Models
• Sample Forecast: resCHP
• Discussion
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Introduction
Pike Research is a market research and consulting
firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean
technology markets.
The company’s research methodology combines
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research and demand assessment, and deep
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3
Smart Energy Ecosystem
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Advisory Services
SMART
ENERGY
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SMART
TRANSPORTATION
Renewable Energy
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SMART
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Industrial Innovations
SMART
BUILDINGS
Building Systems
Green Buildings
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Research Methodology
INFORMATION COLLECTION
Primary Research
Secondary Research
Supply Side
• Executive Interviews
• Vendor Briefings
• Product Demos and Tours
•
•
•
•
Demand Side
• Consumer Surveys
• Business Leader Surveys
• Case Studies
• Reference Customers
Company News & Financials
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Government Data
Economic, Demographic Data
MARKET ANALYSIS
Qualitative
•
•
•
•
•
Business Models & Trends
Technology Issues
Policy & Regulatory Factors
Competitive Landscape
Profiles of Key Players
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Quantitative
• Market Sizing
• Segmentation by Technology,
Geography, Application, etc.
• Market Share Analysis
• Forecasts by Segment
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Overview of Current U.S.
Residential Energy Use
•
•
•
•
Residential energy consumption
varies by region with climate
greatest influencer of energy
consumption
Most areas of energy consumption
in the home are reducing, but with
the increased “gadgetification” in
the home, energy demand from
electronics is on the rise
2009 energy demand from the U.S.
residential sector: 11.26 quadrillion
BTUs (Quads) and rising
According to the EIA, from 1950 to
2009, both the amount of CO2
emissions associated with
residential use and the total amount
of energy associated with
households more than tripled
Residential Energy Consumption by Sector,
United States: 2009
Electronics, 5%
Cleaning, 5%
Refrigeration, 8%
Space Heating,
32%
Air Con, 11%
Lighting, 12%
Water Heating,
13%
(Source: Lawrence Livermore National Lab)
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Micro Renewables
• Best known and most
“traditional” of all the home
energy systems
PV Installation Costs: 2009-2015
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
• Distributed PV installed
capacity in the United States
has jumped from 326 MW to
984 MW in just 2 years
(2009 to 2011)
• Costs are dropping for both
solar and wind, but
deployment is limited by
climate
• Easiest to understand and
has the clear “green” label
when installed
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$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
Residential (2kW) $/kW
Commercial (50kW) $/kW
Industrial (500kW) $/kW
$2,000
$1,000
$-
2009
2010A
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
•
Three of the top 5 small wind power
companies are located in the United
States (Southwest Windpower,
Northern Power Systems, and Bergey
Wind Power)
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Residential CHP
• resCHP specifically refers to CHP
systems that are designed to be
sited in a residential location. They
either provide baseload power to
the home or are used as distributed
grid micro-generators.
resCHP Systems Shipped, World
Markets: 2009-2011
• resCHP units range in size, at
present from 700We up to 30 kWe.
• resCHP systems come in 3 main
flavors: fuel cell; Organic Rankine
Cycle (ORC) engines; and Stirling
engines.
(Source: Pike Research)
• Japan, South Korea, and Germany
are already deploying thousands of
resCHP systems per year.
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Residential Energy Storage
•
Of the three areas, resES is the one that is still most in the demonstration phase
•
Key variable is duration of storage available, developers are still testing configurations
•
Utilities are still determining what the value of residential storage is to the system
•
Li-ion battery technology currently leading the development
Project
Location
Technology
MW
Duration (h)
Energy
SMUD Smart
Energy
Homes
California
Southern
California
Edison
Li-ion
0.054
3.8
0.204
Saft
California
Li-ion
0.004
2.5
0.010
LG Chem
Electrovaya
Japan
Li-ion
0.004
3.0
0.010
Electrovaya
Field Trials
Australia
Flow Battery
0.005
2.0
0.010
RedFlow
Duke Energy
South
Carolina
Li-ion
0.048
1.0
0.048
Kokam
Sol-ion
Germany
Li-ion
3.750
3.0
11.25
Saft
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Vendor
(Source: Pike Research)
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Connecting the Dots
• Some companies are
moving now to join up the
different technology pieces
to provide integrated
solutions

ClearEdge Power (United
States) – combining resCHP
and resES to provide islanded
systems for homes

Some Japanese firms –
including Panasonic – now
building technology integrated
homes, instead of residential
technology

Opportunities for “one-stop
shop” type firms
Copyright © 2012 Pike Research
Enabling technologies
include home energy
management systems and
smart grid communication
technology.
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Current Market Size
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12,000
10,000
(Annual MWs Installed)
• Current market size for
residential energy in the
United States is
approximately 10% of the
global market at 1 GW
• Of this, 97% in the United
States is from solar
• Looking forward, Pike
Research forecasts the U.S.
home energy power market
will increase to 1.6 GW
• Without resCHP and resES
take off, the home energy
market will remain limited to
low GWs per year
8,000
USA
Global
6,000
4,000
2,000
Small Wind
Small Solar
resCHP
resES
(Source: Pike Research)
• Note: The U.S. DOE is
increasingly interested in
resCHP systems
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Case Study: ENE-FARM (Japan)
•
Through targeted government
and company RD&D, Japan is
now deploying fuel cell resCHP
systems at $35k each (before
subsidy)
•
Following Fukushima, developers
are now integrating energy
storage into systems to allow
operation during grid blackouts
•
Goal is to deploy over 80,000
systems per year by 2015 with
cost down to under $10k
•
NB: Systems grid connected but
do not feed into the grid, as there
are no interconnection standards
in place
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resCHP Fuel Cell Systems Installed,
Japan: 2002-2011
(Source: Pike Research)
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Commercial Availability
in the United States
• Outside of micro renewables, availability in the
United States is very limited
• ResCHP systems available (2011) from:
 ClearEdge Power (California only)
 Cogen Microsystems
 Marathon Engine Systems
• Coming Soon (2013 – 2015):
 Ceramic Fuel Cells
 Trenergi
• ResES systems coming soon from:
 Sony
 LG Chem
 RedFlow
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Market Drivers and Barriers
• Feed-In Tariff for ALL distributed residential energy
systems, or none
• Clear grid interconnection standards
• Utility involvement, or aggregators – it is unfeasible
for each homeowner to become a micro-generator
and deal directly with the grid companies
• Rollout of ability for third parties to charge tenants
for electricity generated
• Clear subsidies for adoption based on efficiency,
not pet technology
• Homeowner buy-in!
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Residential Power:
The Downside
• Distributed Generation at a residential level is a
nightmare for grid operators if each homeowner
becomes an independent power producer
• The grid operator needs power at a known time, a
known quantity and a known price – each U.S. grid
operator is unique
• There is no system in place to deal with potentially
millions of producers, each producing and selling on
different amounts – aggregation and smoothing is
key
• If mass rollout is take place, grid balancing, energy
storage, and power production technology will need
to be very carefully aligned
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Two Possible Market Plays
• Virtual Power Plant
 IPP or ESCO leases space of each homeowner to produce
power which all gets fed into the grid. Homeowner is given
cheaper electricity rates and any waste heat (as hot water)
as a thank you.
• In place in Germany with the independent utility Lichtblick
• In place in the United Kingdom with the “rent-a-roof” scheme
• IPP becomes community energy provider
 Larger units (e.g., 100 kW) are installed by IPPs to power
multiple homes. Agreed quantities of excess power are
sold into the grid.
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Sample Forecast – Global
resCHP Roll Out
resCHP Adoption by Key Countries: 2012-2022
(Source: ?)
•
Under the Pike Research BAU model for resCHP (all tech
types), we see a global annual adoption of 3.9 million
systems, generating $41 billion annual revenue
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Discussion
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