Climate Change
Science, politics, policies
Rich Conant
Natural Resource Ecology
Laboratory,
Colorado State University
Irrefutable truths about climate change:
1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas
a. CO2 absorbs long-wave radiation – that’s physics
2. CO2 concentrations are increasing
a. CO2 occurs naturally
b. [CO2] has risen and fallen in the past
c. [CO2] is currently increasing rapidly
d. Human activities are driving current increases in
atmospheric [CO2]
3. All else equal, more CO2  warmer temperatures
a. Historical correspondence
b. Recent changes
What about the climate of the future?
1. How do we make forecasts?
a. Climate models – not based on simple
extrapolation
b. Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate
system
CO2 emission growth rates
Fossil fuels, deforestation
10000
Fossil fuel emissions
Tropical LUC
Temperate LUC
8000
MMt C
6000
4000
2000
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
What about the climate of the future?
1. How do we make forecasts?
a. Climate models – not based on simple
extrapolation
b. Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate
system
2. What are people doing?
a. CO2 emission growth rates
b. Deforestation rates
CO2 concentrations are increasing:
Human activities are driving increases in atmospheric CO2
(IPCC AR4 SPM)
Irrefutable truths about climate change:
A metaphor for CO2 build-up
Dangerous anthropogenic interference
w/ the climate system: 450ppm
Human emissions: 8.4 GtC/yr
and growing; 12 GtC per year in
2030; US currently emits 1.7 GtC,
2.2 GtC expected 2030
Atmospheric concentrations
of >380 ppm, today, increasing
by about 1-2 ppm/year
A natural removal of about
2 GtC per year
POP QUIZ! #1
In order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations
of carbon dioxide requires that net global
emissions be reduced from today’s levels:
A. to 1990 levels
B. by 20%
C. by half
D. by nearly 100%
The Kaya identity:
Driving forces for CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
Number of people
GDP per person
Energy per unit of GDP
(energy efficiency of the economy)
 Carbon intensity
CO2 per unit of energy
(emissions from energy production and use)
The Kaya identity:
Population
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
Number of people
GDP per person
Energy per unit of GDP
(energy efficiency of the economy)
 Carbon intensity
CO2 per unit of energy
(emissions from energy production and use)
The Kaya identity:
Limiting population to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Problems
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increased populations
Procreation
Motherhood
Large families
Immigration
Medicine
Public health
Sanitation
Peace
Law and order
Scientific agriculture
Accident prevention (drive 55)
Clean air
Ignorance of the population
problem
Solutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Decreased populations
Abstention
contraception/abortion
Small families
Stop immigration
Disease
War
Murder/violence
Famine
Accidents
Pollution (smoking)
The Kaya identity:
Population
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
 Carbon intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
The Kaya identity:
Prosperity
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
 Carbon intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
GDP per person
The Kaya identity:
Prosperity
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
 Carbon intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
we want GDP per person to grow
The Kaya identity:
Energy intensity
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
we want GDP per person to grow
Energy per unit of GDP
(energy efficiency of the economy)
 Carbon intensity
17
While the global economy grew since 1980, the world also became more
energy efficient. This gain in efficiency is illustrated by a significant decline
in “energy intensity” – a measure that reflects global energy demand
divided by global GDP. For perspective, in 1980, it took over 2.5 barrels of
oil equivalent (BOE) energy to generate $1000 of economic output. Over
the past 25 years, gains in efficiency helped lower energy intensity by
about 1.0 percent per year. From 2005 to 2030, the rate of
improvement is likely to increase to about 1.6 percent per year on
average reflecting advances in development and deployment of new
technologies. As a result, energy intensity in 2030 will be almost 50
percent below the level of 1980.
What are all of the technologies to be
developed and deployed, independent of
climate policies?
IPCC 2007
19
Sheehan (2007)
The Kaya identity:
Energy intensity
(IPCC AR4 SPM)
The Kaya identity:
Energy intensity
(IPCC AR4 SPM)
Actual emissions growth rate 2000-2006 =
3.3% per year (Raupach et al. 2007)
Frozen Technology Baseline
57.5 Billion tonnes carbon dioxide @ 3.0%
38.5 Billion tonnes carbon dioxide @ 1.2%
2007
Assumptions of The Effects of Technological Change on
Future Emissions in the SRES Scenarios and IPCC AR4
7000
6000
GtC
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
A1B
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
Scenario
B2
n=6
n=35
AR4
The Kaya identity:
Energy intensity
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
we want GDP per person to grow
Happening in developed world
(but not in developing – where the real growth is!)
 Carbon intensity
The Kaya identity:
Carbon intensity
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
we want GDP per person to grow
Happening in developed world
(but not in developing – where the real growth is!)
 Carbon intensity
CO2 per unit of energy
(emissions from energy production and use)
http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/images/enlarged_primaryenergy.jpg
The Kaya identity:
Carbon intensity
(IPCC AR4 SPM)
The Kaya identity:
Carbon intensity
(Pielke et al. 2008: Nature)
The Kaya identity:
Energy intensity
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
we want GDP per person to grow
Happening in developed world
(but not in developing – where the real growth is!)
 Carbon intensity
happening slowly; takes major investment
The Kaya identity:
Summary
CO2 emissions =
people

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
# of people declining as we grow richer
we want GDP per person to grow
Happening in developed world
(but not in developing – where the real growth is!)
 Carbon intensity
happening slowly; takes major investment
What about the climate of the future?
1. How do we make forecasts?
a. Climate models – not based on simple
extrapolation
b. Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate
system
2. What are people doing?
a. CO2 emission growth rates
b. Deforestation rates
c. Kyoto Protocol
d. US legislation
Perspective
Climate policy timeline
2008-2012: 1st Kyoto
compliance period
10000
Fossil fuel emissions
Tropical LUC
Temperate LUC
8000
2000-present: US
legislation
2005: Kyoto into effect
MMt C
6000
2001: Marrakech accords
4000
1997: Kyoto Protocol
1992: US Energy policy
act; incl. Section 1605(b)
2000
1992: Rio Treaty –
establishes UNFCCC
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Perspective
Emissions, science, policy
10000
Fossil fuel emissions
Tropical LUC
Temperate LUC
8000
MMt C
6000
4000
2000
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
What is being done?:
Multilevel governance
International
National
Sub-national
• Kyoto Protocol
• Asia Pacific Partnership for
Clean Development
• EU Emissions Trading
System
• Wal-Mart
• Pew Business Environmental
Leadership Council
• Cities for Climate Protection
Network
• Carbon tax in France
• Land use/ag regulations in NZ
• Waxman-Markey Bill (US)
• China’s National Climate
Change Programme
• Japan’s efficiency program
• Chicago Climate Exchange
• Evangelical Climate Initiative
• US Climate Action
Partnership
• Fort Collins Climate Action
Taskforce
• Colorado Climate Action Plan
• Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative
• Carbon Rationing Action
Groups
• Climate Wise
• New Belgium’s Sustainability
Program
• Personal actions
Public
Private
What is being done?:
The Kyoto Protocol
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (1992/1994)
•
•
Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.”
Commitments
• Industrialized countries aim to stabilize GHG emissions
at 1990 levels by 2000.
• Reporting (emissions and policies)
What is being done?:
The Kyoto Protocol
• Created in1997 / took effect in 2005
• Industrialized countries shall reduce aggregate
GHG emissions 5.2% below 1990 levels by
2008-2012.
• Flexible Mechanisms
•
•
•
Emissions trading
Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)/
Joint Implementation (JI)
Sinks
What is being done?:
The Kyoto Protocol
Country
Target (1990** - 2008/2012)
EU-15*, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland
-8%
US***
-7%
Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland
-6%
Croatia
-5%
New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine
0
Norway
+1%
Australia
+8%
Iceland
+10%
What is being done?:
Policies
2009 (2011?): US
climate/energy policy
10000
Fossil fuel emissions
Tropical LUC
Temperate LUC
2009: Copenhagen
8000
“We understand the gravity of the
climate threat, we are determined to
act, and we will meet our
responsibility to future generations.”
MMt C
6000
4000
2007: Bali action plan
-Pres. Obama, last Tuesday
2000
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
What is being done?:
Kyoto Protocol successor
• The “Bali Roadmap” on post-2012
•
•
Ad hoc working group on long-term cooperative action
to address climate change by enhancing
implementation of the Convention
Further commitments for industrialized Parties under
the Protocol (“Kyoto successor”)
Photos courtesy of IISD
What is being done?:
In-class assignment
For your country:
• Determine whether your country is likely to be for or
against the Kyoto Successor
• Explain the main components of a FAIR international
agreement
• Explain how your country will reduce emissions in
terms of the (1) the bath tub and (2) the Kaya Identity
Group1US
Group2China
Group3Major European country
Group4Brazil
CO2 emissions =
people
Group5Oil exporter
Group6Small Island Nation
Group7Latin America
Group8,9,0Any country of interest

GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
What is being done?:
Important criteria for negotiations
For your country:
• Likely impacts of climate on nation
• Population growth rates (now + future)
• Economic growth rates (now + future)
• Resoures available
• Past emissions
• Land use sinks
What about the climate of the future?
1. How do we make forecasts?
a. Climate models – not based on simple
extrapolation
b. Challenges: diverse, complex drivers of climate
system
2. What are people doing?
a. CO2 emission growth rates
b. Deforestation rates
c. Kyoto Protocol
d. US legislation
3. What else can be done to mitigate emissions?
a. What can you do?
What can you do?:
What have you done this morning?
The Kaya identity:
Personal emissions
CO2 emissions =
people

CO2 emissions =
people
 spending  energy  CO2
person
spending energy
GDP
person

energy  CO2
GDP
energy
Just four factors govern the outcome:
 Population
 Economic prosperity
 Energy intensity
Number of people
GDP per person
Energy per unit of GDP
(energy efficiency of the economy)
 Carbon intensity
CO2 per unit of energy
(emissions from energy production and use)