WORKSHOP ON ENERGY BALANCE AND PLANNING MODELS
GABRIEL HERNANDEZ
Energy Information Management and Training Coordinator
ENERGY STATISTICS
December 9-12, 2013
Kingston, JAMAICA
ENERGY STATISTICS
ENERGY SUPPLY
INFORMATION ON SUPPLY CAN BE FOUND IN COMPANIES TRADING ENERGY
Producers
Importers / Exporters
Transporters
Distributors
Oil products, natural gas, coal, electricity
Firewood, charcoal
ENERGY STATISTICS
ENERGY DEMAND
THE ENGINE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR
Distributors
Statistical institution
Associations of final consumers
Consumers
1
ENERGY STATISTICS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY DEMAND ESTIMATION
Amount of energy used
Location
Type of fuel
End-use technology
How they are used
1
ENERGY DEMAND
•
UNDERSTANDING THE ENERGY DEMAND
Lifestyle
Factors determining the demand of energy services
Characteristics and technological developments
Institutional frameworks
Interrelationship between the above
2
ENERGY DEMAND
•
PURPOSE OF MODULE
Characteristics of energy demand in economic sectors: uses, processes,
equipment, frequency, performance, efficiency
Methodologies for quantifying energy consumption: Energy Balance and
planning
Additional sources of information
Procedures and tools for estimating
3
ENERGY DEMAND
•
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
It is the last use given to energy sources to produce a good or to meet a
need
Where is energy consumed?
Sectors:
Transport
Industrial
Residential
Public and Commercial Services
Agriculture Fishing and Mining
Construction and Other
Energy Sector
(No Energy)
4
ENERGY DEMAND
•
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
HEAT
Processes:
FE
Combustion
Thermal
Energy
Heat transfer
Increase
temperature
DRIVING FORCE
FE
Engine
Mechanical
Energy
Energy
Transmission
Movement
ENERGY DEMAND
•
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Processes:
LIGHTING
Radiation
EF
Light bulb.
Lighting
OTHER
EF
EE
Devices
6
Operation Electronic devices
Electrochemical Processes
ENERGY DEMAND
•
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Movement
Engine
FE
Combustion
Thermal
Energy
Boiler
Mechanical
Energy
Steam
Heat Transfer
7
EE
Increase
temperature
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Activities of freight and transportation of passengers
H
Transportation and storage
491Transport via railways
492Other land transport
4921Urban and suburban passenger land transport
4922Other passenger land transport
4923Freight transport by road
50Water transport
501Sea and coastal water transport
5011Sea and coastal passenger water transport
5012Sea and coastal freight water transport
502Inland water transport
5021Inland passenger water transport
5022Inland freight water transport
51Air transport
511Passenger air transport
512Freight air transport
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Coverage: National and international transport service
Observed: Vehicle
CLASSIFICATION
• Mode: Road, Rail, Air, River, Sea
• Carried Subject: Passenger, freight
• Type of Service: Public, Private, Official
• Nature of Service: Urban, Interurban, National, international
• Vehicle Type: Cars, motorcycles, trucks, jeeps, buses and subways, trucks,
trains, boats, planes.
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR – SUGGESTED CLASSIFICATION
Urban Private Passenger
Air
Interurban Private Passenger
Fluvial
Urban Public Passenger
Sea
Interurban Public Passenger
Road
Urban load
Interurban load
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION FOR ROAD MODE
C( f )  Q  ce ( f )  R; Q( f )
C(f)= Consumption of the energy product f
Q = Vehicle fleet
Ce(f) = Specific consumption of f
R = Traveled distance
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
ENERGY DEMAND
VEHICLE FLEET
Qt  Qt 1  At  St
Qt=vehicle fleet of the year t
Qt-1=vehicle fleet from previous year
At=additions to vehicle fleet to the year t
St=Vehicles leaving the vehicle fleet of the year t
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
ENERGY DEMAND
VEHICLE FLEET
St
data
doesn’t exist
Qt  At po  At 1 p1  At 2 p2  .... At n pn
At=additions to the vehicle fleet of the yeart
Pn= Probability of not leaving the park a vehicle of n years old
n
Qt   At i pi
i
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
ENERGY DEMAND
VEHICLE FLEET
Probability of leaving the vehicle fleet in terms of age
1
F ( x) 
1  a  e bx
x=age of the vehicle
Probability of remaining in the vehicle fleet one more year
p ( x)  1  F ( x)
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
CALCULATION OF THE SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION(Km/gal)
C( f )  Q  ce ( f )  R; Q( f )
Ce(f) = Specific consumption of the source f
Engine size, distance, urban or suburban route, age, fuel, road conditions, height
above sea level
ce  d  eCil
ce  b ln(x)eCil
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
CALCULATION OF THE SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION(Km/gal)
TYPE
YEAR
SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION REPORT
A
BRAND
PEUGEOT
2003
FUEL
G
LOAD DATE
LOADED GALLONS
Read Km
09-ago
8.5
17-ago
12.3
23-ago
6.9
28-ago
7.7
04-sep
13.1
5286
5679
5904
6148
6515
393
225
244
367
31.95
32.61
31.69
28.02
TOTAL
1229
1229
30.73
Sources / footnotes
40
Route
MODEL
206
Cylinder Capacity
1400
Consumption
Km/gal
Days of use
8
6
5
7
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
CALCULATION OF THE DISTANCE TRAVELED
R  Ru  Ri
Ru=Distance traveled in urban areas; Ri= Distance traveled in interurban areas
R: Total distance traveled / Years of Service: Average annual travel survey

VKm  R  Q
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
CALCULATION OF THE DISTANCE TRAVELED
Ri: Count of vehicles between stations multiplied by the distance between
counting stations
Ri   vi i 1  li i 1
i
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION
URBAN
INTERUBAN
GAL/1000Km
VEHICLE
CeDO
GAL/1000Km
CeGM
Km/Año
CeDO
CeGM
Km/Year
Car
34.4
35.7
6000.0
30.0
28.5
6000.0
Pick Up
49.3
49.5
8500.0
38.3
40.3
5200.0
128.0
145.0
48500.0
110.0
128.0
50000.0
75.7
72.0
41500.0
132.0
150.0
55000.0
19.2
8500.0
19.2
8500.0
Bus
Truck
Motorcycle
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
TRANSPORT SECTOR
FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION
Railway:
CONSUMPTION = (DO & C) sold to transport companies
Ocean:
CONSUMPTION = (DO, FO & C) sold to companies
Air:
CONSUMPTION = AV GAS & JP sold
River:
CONSUMPTION=Q * c * Yk
Yk: Yearly km.
Final Energy Consumption
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Coverage: Transform raw materials.
Observed: Industrial facilities
Classification Criteria: ISIC
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR – SUGGESTED CLASIFICATION
ISIC
31
32
33
34
35
3692
36
37
38/39
Sources / footnotes
Sector
Food, beverages, tobacco
Textile, confection, footgear y leather
Timber y furnishing
Paper & printing
Chemical
Cement
Construction materials (ex. Cement)
Metals
Machinery, equipment & others
Final Energy Consumption
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
FINAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION
Survey
•
•
•
•
•
•
Survey selection
Information to compile
Economic data
Energy purchases
Equipment Characteristics
Fuel consumption by use (Balance)
Fuel use=  consumption by use+Losses+Stock
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
It corresponds to the secondary sector of the economy, which transforms raw materials
into finished products
The studies of energy in the Industrial Sector aims to determine the characteristics and
conditions of the processes in which energy is used to establish and have the information
necessary for the formulation of energy efficiency programs, substitution and control on
environmental impact .
The determination of energy destination in the industry are performed by two
procedures. The first one, tracks down each energy source by identifying the quantities
consumed in each process. The second procedure examines each process and quantified
the amount of energy used, as well as useful energy absorbed.
29
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
In either case we applied the energy balance concept, where the origin and destiny of
energy, the entire industrial facility or each processes of the equipment used were
considered as the primary unit of observation.
In some cases direct measurements may be required for certain periods of time on the
amount of energy used in each process or each equipment.
Similarly, to establish useful power it will be necessary to measure the characteristics of
the process or products obtained or generated from intermediate energy.
30
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
In some countries a significant part of total energy consumption in the industry can be
identified from the reports of distributing electricity companies or fuel companies.
Most statistical agencies of countries make an annual industry survey through which
values and quantities of energy purchased by industrial establishments are determined .
In cases where such information is available, there is a consumption breakdown per use or
equipment required from a survey or field study.
31
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
32
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
33
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
34
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
OBSERVATION UNIT:
Establishment: The combination of activities and resources that independently make
a company or part of a company, to produce the most homogeneous group of
manufactured goods at a location or geographical area and which separate
records are kept on materials, labor and other physical resources used in the
production process.
35
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Universe: Secondary sector of the economy
Observation Unit: Industrial establishments
Population characteristics: Number of establishments, regional distribution,
production, gross value added, employees, production
Direct Information Sources: Energy trading companies, economic census, manufacturing
surveys, previous studies,
Indirect or additional information Sources: Census, surveys, reports of associations
Energy used: EE, FW, NG, derivatives, biomass, coal, coke, other
36
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Procedures to determine
mathematical models
the
final
consumption:
Surveys,
measurements,
Variables required for consumption calculation: Facilities, physical production, number of
employees, purchases of energy
Characteristics that change the energy consumption:
processes, production, operation and maintenance, fuel
Types and forms of energy use: For processes and equipment
Characteristics of energy based technologies:
How the energy is used, performance.
37
Subsector,
technology,
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Understanding the energy demand in the industrial sector
Characteristics of the Universe: total facilities, production, value of production
Observation unit : Each facility, each unit of product produced
What is to be observed or measured: energy consumption
By Facility
By Process
By Equipment
By unit produced
By unit of gross added value
38
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Processes and equipment in the Industrial Sector
Heat:
Boilers, Water heaters, furnaces, stoves
Driving Force :
Engines, Electromechanical, refrigerators, air
conditioning, pumps
Lighting :
Light bulbs, reflectors
Other :
Electrolysis, Office Equipment
39
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Final energy consumption
Total final consumption
C ( IND)  C (OU )  N (OU )
Total final consumption per source
C ( IND)   C j (OU )  N (OU ), j  ( EE, Biom ass, Pr ods, GN , Coal, other
j
)
Total final consumption per energy and use
C( IND)   C i , j (OU )  N (OU ); i  uses, j  energy
i
40
j
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Total final consumption per energy product
C( IND)  C j (UO)  N (UO), j  ( EE, Biomass, Pr oducts, Coal, Other)
j
Appropriate OU: Industrial Establishment
Observation and measurement of Cj(UO):
EE, NG: Sheet
Products: Purchases
FW, CH: Measurement
C, CK: Measurement
41
ENERGY DEMAND
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Total final consumption per energy and use
C( IND)   C i , j (UO)  N (UO); i  uses, j  energy
i
j
Appropriate OU: Industrial Establishment
Observation and measurement of Ci,j(UO):
EE: Engines, lighting, electromechanical, electronic, heating, refrigeration, air conditioning
NG, products, biomass, C, CK:
Heating, direct heat
FORM
42
Boilers, cooking, water heating,
Final Energy Consumption
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Coverage: Energy consumption in households
Observed: Household
Classification criteria:
Area
Income
Suggested classification:
Urban area
Rural area
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
USES
Heat: Direct Heat
Movement: Mechanical force, refrigeration
Lighting
Others: Electronic process
EQUIPMENT
Heat: Water heater, furnaces, stoves
Movement: laundry, refrigerators, Air Conditioner
Lighting: bulbs
Others: Electronic equipment
Final Energy Consumption
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Electricity consumption:
Ci = Wpi * Hi * CFi
CF = Wr / Wp
Wr= Cr / t
(Correction factor)
(Real potential)
uses
CEE = 
i=1
Wpi * Hi * CFi
Correction Factors:
Air Conditioner
Lighting
Iron
Refrigerator
Stove
Water Heater
Oven
Mech. equipments
Radio electronics
Sources / footnotes
0.90
0.94
0.28
0.31
0.41
0.75
0.48
0.51
0.55
Final Energy Consumption
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Fuel Consumption: NG, LPG, KE, FW:
Cj = Hh * %j * Ce(v)
Specific Consumptions by Household
Cooking:
LPG
NG
FW
KE
165
564
2090
117
gal/year
m3/year
Kg/year
gal/year
LPG
140
gal/year
Water Heater:
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
Coverage: Production activities on farms, fishing, and mining projects.
Agro food primary production and natural products.
Fishing: Catch and fish processing
Mining: Extraction, processing, smelting and primary adjustment.
Observation Unit
Agriculture: Farm
Fishing: catching and processing units
Mining: Mine
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
FINAL CALCULUS CONSUMPTION
 National survey of farming production and
 Mining production registry
 Subsectorial serial
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
FARMING CONSUMPTIONS
Consumptions: C(s,u,f) = EM * %U(s,u,t) * EC(f,t)
 EM: Economical Measurement (cultivated area, production, heads).
 U(s,u,t): Percentage of Es where is shown the use (U) with technology (t).
 EC(f,t): Specific consumption of f per unit of Es for the use (U) with technology
(t).
Required Information:
•
•
•
Measurement of economic activity
Technologies use for the production and processing
Specific consumption of energy in each technology.
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
FARMING CONSUMPTIONS
Technologies:

Tractors and combined

Irrigation
 Aerial fumigation

Dried Grain

Distillation
C(rice, tractor,DO) =cultivated area*%mechanized*Hr/Ha*gal/hr
88126.5 GAL = 5450 * 0.77 * 10.5 * 2
C(cotton,irrigation, EE)=cultivated area*%irrigated area*
%irrigated area EE*kWh/Ha
618329 Kwh
= 2550 *
0.0573 * 0.9 * 4702
Final Energy Consumption
FARMING, FISHING AND MINING
FISHING CONSUMPTION
Inquiry with the companies directly.
MINING CONSUMPTION
•
•
•
•
•
•
Registry of energy distributing companies
Surveys of uses and consumptions (industrial)
Energy purchases (t)
Energy uses by process
Mining production (volume and value)(STRATA)
Technical features of production
C(m,p,f) = Production(m) *%m processed with (p)
Sources / footnotes
*Cef / Unit m
Final Energy Consumption
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
Coverage: Commercial establishments, and public service delivery.
Observation Unit: Establishments
Classification Criteria: ISIC
Proposed Classification:
Commercial establishments
Restaurants
Hotels
Public and services
61 & 62
6310
6320
8&9
Final Energy Consumption
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
USES
Heat: steam, direct heat
Driving force: Mechanical strength
Lighting
Others: Electronics
EQUIPMENT
Heat: Stoves, ovens, boilers,
Driving force: Refrigeration, electromechanical pumps.
Lighting: Bulbs, spotlights
Other: Radio equipment
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Record of energy distributing companies EE, NG, LPG.
Economic censuses of establishments (number, added value)
Surveys of use and energy consumption
Electrical Artifacts: C= Wp * H * Fu
Installed average power by establishment, sector and strata.
Final Energy Consumption
COMMERCE, SERVICES AND PUBLIC SECTOR
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Survey of use and consumption of energy (cont.)
Other Energy:
Purchase for establishment
Average consumption per establishment, sector and stratum.
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
CONSTRUCTION SECTORS AND OTHERS
Coverage: Buildings and civil works
Observation Unit: Project, works
Classification Criteria: Type of work
Proposed classification:
• Building Construction
• Civil works
• roads
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
CONSTRUCTION SECTORS AND OTHERS
USES
Driving force: Mechanical strength
Lighting
EQUIPMENTS
Driving force: Construction machinery
Lighting: light bulbs and reflectors
Sources / footnotes
Final Energy Consumption
CONSTRUCTION SECTORS AND OTHERS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
 Registry of fuel distributor Companies
 Construction records
 Fuel Consumption Survey
OTHERS SUBSECTORS
Non identified and others
Final Energy Consumption
NON ENERGY FINAL CONSUMPTION
Consumption of energy sources for non energy purposes.




Charcoal for carbon dioxide
Natural gas for fertilizer
Gasoline or kerosene for cleaning
Bagasse for paper or particle board
Final Energy Consumption
NON ENERGY FINAL CONSUMPTION
Consumption of energy sources for non energy purposes.




Charcoal for carbon dioxide
Natural gas for fertilizer
Gasoline or kerosene for cleaning
Bagasse for paper or particle board
ENERGY DEMAND
•
BASIC CONSIDERATIONS
Identification of the subsectoral universe
Information Unit
Population characteristics
Direct information sources
Indirect or complementary information sources
Energy products used
ENERGY DEMAND
•
BASIC CONSIDERATIONS
Procedures for determining final consumption
Variables required for the calculation of consumption
Characteristics that change energy consumption
Types and forms of energy consumption
Characteristics of technologies .
9
ENERGY DEMAND
•
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Universe: Buildings where people live; population
Information Unit : Dwelling; Home; Person
Population characteristics: demographics, regional distribution; Income
Direct information sources: traders of energy; population censuses, household
surveys, previous studies,
Indirect or complementary information sources: censuses, surveys
Energy used: EE, LE,LPG, NG, CV, KR, BG
ENERGY DEMAND
•
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Procedures for determining
Mathematical models
final
consumption:
surveys,
measurements,
Variables required for the calculation of consumption: population, households,
specific consumption
Characteristics that change energy consumption: persons per dwelling
per household, location, level of income, eating habits, height above sea level
Types and forms of energy: by processes and equipment
Characteristics of technologies that consume energy: how energy is harnessed,
performance.
11