Carbon Trading Training for visiting Caribbean Group Guglielmo Cioni - Senior Expert London 6 October 2010 Today’s Agenda 9:00 - Module 1. - Introduction Introduction to Climate Change International treaties and EU legislation Flexible Mechanisms: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) Carbon Credits Markets: Primary and Secondary Markets 10:30 – 10:45: Coffee Break 10:45 - Module 2. Origination of Carbon Credits Project Cycle for CDM and JI 12:00 - Module 3. Primary Market The transaction: ERPA – Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement Cost evaluation for a typical CDM Cycle Case Studies 13:00 – 14:30 - Lunch Break 14:30 – Module 4. The Secondary Market Trading Carbon Credits and Allowances on Exchange Platforms and OTC Carbon Primary and Secondary Pricing 16:00 – Questions and Exercises 17:00 - Workshop closing ERANOVA CLIMATE a Swiss company, constituted of high profile, skilled professionals with long experience and proven track record in private equity with successful exits, project finance, carbon origination and trading, banking and project management. Consulting – helping clients (mainly financial institutions like large banks with extensive commercial customer bases) understand, measure and manage the business risks associated with climate change policy and regulation Financial advisory – helping project organisations source and structure funding for clean technology projects in emerging economies, notably Latin America and South East Asia. Effectively, project development organisations who have viable projects eg. wind farms or hydraulic power plant, which need funding will approach Eranova for help with identifying and acquiring finance from banks, private equity firms, hedge funds, etc Investment fund management – setting up and managing innovative investment funds focused on the clean technology and carbon trading sectors. Module 1. - Introduction 1. Introduction to Climate Change 2. International treaties and EU legislation 3. Flexible Mechanisms: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 4. Carbon Credits Markets: Primary and Secondary Markets 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change Video: A Global Climate Change 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change IPCC says: 1. No more than 2° C increase! 2. That means: No more than: 450 ppm (0,045%) of CO2 in the atmosphere The world CO2 concentration in the atmosphere: Pre industrial Era: 280 ppm Today: 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change Beware! Not only CO2! Other important GHGs Methane: 1t CH4 = 21 tCO2eq N2O: 1t N2O = 310 tCO2eq HFCs, PFC: 1t HFC23 = 11,000 tCO2eq SF6: 1t SF6 = 22,000 tCO2eq 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change How much is it? 3,000 Gt of CO2 on Earth How much are we throwing in? 27 Gt of CO2/y Is it a lot? 75,000 times the weight of Empire State Building in NY 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change What shall we do Source ETP 2010 - IEA 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change Source ETP 2010 - IEA 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change How much it is going to cost? Source WEO 2009 - IEA 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change How much it is going to cost? Source WEO 2009 - IEA 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change Who is going to pay? If we don’t do it Everyone The Stern Report (Sir N. Stern 2006) forecasts losses of 5 to 20% of the World’s GDP due to Climate Change Effects Source WEO 2009 - IEA 1.1 Introduction to Climate Change Who is going to pay? Developed Nations Pledges: 100 USDbn/y until 2020 devoted to mitigation and adaptation measures So far no clear evidence of such funding: Public? Private? Instruments? Carbon Markets are the most tested tool to finance mitigation actions Module 1. - Introduction 1. Introduction to Climate Change 2. International treaties and EU legislation 3. Flexible Mechanisms: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 4. Carbon Credits Markets: Primary and Secondary Markets 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiated at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, nations committed to developing and implementing climate protection measures "appropriate for the specific conditions of each Party." In addition, industrialized ("Annex I") countries agreed to voluntarily reduce their GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. The Convention entered into force in May 1994 and has been ratified by 186 countries including the United States. Very few industrialized countries, however, have met the voluntary target. For instance, U.S. GHG emissions have climbed nearly 15 percent since 1990 The 1997 Kyoto Protocol would significantly strengthen the Convention, establishing binding emission targets for industrialized countries and establishing a range of mechanisms to encourage cost-effective compliance. The emission targets, for the period 2008 - 2012, average 5.2 percent below 1990 levels and range from 8 percent below (European Union) to 10 percent above 1990 levels (Iceland). The target for the United States is 7 percent below 1990 levels. 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation The Kyoto Protocol: 1. Commitments. The heart of the Protocol lies in establishing commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gases that are legally binding for Annex I countries, as well as general commitments for all member countries. 2. Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I countries are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home. 3. Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change. 4. Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol. 5. Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol. 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Kyoto Protocol Annex I parties and commitments Source: UNFCCC 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Kyoto Protocol Caribbean Countries Participant Signature ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 16 Mar 1998 Ratification Acceptance (A) Accession (a) Approval (AA) Entry into force 3 Nov 1998 16 Feb 2005 BAHAMAS 9 Apr 1999 a 16 Feb 2005 BARBADOS 7 Aug 2000 a 16 Feb 2005 26 Sep 2003 a 16 Feb 2005 30 Apr 2002 16 Feb 2005 DOMINICA 25 Jan 2005 a 25 Apr 2005 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 12 Feb 2002 a 16 Feb 2005 GRENADA 6 Aug 2002 a 16 Feb 2005 HAITI 6 Jul 2005 a 4 Oct 2005 28 Jun 1999 a 16 Feb 2005 8 Apr 2008 a 7 Jul 2008 BELIZE CUBA 15 Mar 1999 JAMAICA SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS SAINT LUCIA 16 Mar 1998 20 Aug 2003 16 Feb 2005 SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES 19 Mar 1998 31 Dec 2004 31 Mar 2005 7 Jan 1999 28 Jan 1999 16 Feb 2005 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Kyoto Protocol Caribbean Countries Emissions Tot. 132 Mt CO2 (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide) Country 2005 Bermuda 0.63 Antigua and Barbuda 0.65 Aruba 1.13 Bahamas, The 4.91 Barbados 1.53 Belize 0.97 Cuba 28.62 Dominica 0.09 Dominican Republic 17.46 Grenada 0.25 Guyana 1.69 Haiti 1.76 Jamaica 11.24 Netherlands Antilles 10.82 Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.14 Saint Lucia 0.38 Saint Vincent/Grenadines 0.20 Suriname 1.97 Trinidad and Tobago 39.25 2006 0.66 0.66 0.93 5.00 1.49 0.99 28.64 0.10 17.42 0.27 1.65 1.79 12.03 10.90 0.14 0.38 0.20 2.01 47.23 Source EIA - USA 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Kyoto Protocol National communication Example of emission data Jamaica National Focal Point Country Person Ministry/Organiz Address ation Jamaica Ms. Sylvia McGill, Director Ministry of Health and Environment P.O. Box 103 65 ¾ Half Way Tree Road Kingston 10 Phone (1-809)960-8990 Fax (1-809)960-8989 Email wxservice.dir@c wjamaica.com/me tja@infochan.com 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation EU Legislation: The EU ETS – Emission Trading Scheme 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation European Union (EU) • Within EU – – • 27 Member states 23 countries have Kyoto targets as “Annex B” parties, Malta and Cyprus do not have targets Original 15 EU Member States have – Collective Kyoto target of (8% below 1990 levels), but – Differentiated responsibilities under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation EU Burden Sharing Agreement 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation EU Climate Change Policy Overall EU Goal: Reducing its overall emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 • EU is using a portfolio of policies to meet goal across all sectors through the EU Climate Change Program (ECCP) – – – – • Cross-cutting cap and trade Regulation Incentives Voluntary approaches Updated goals and binding measures for ECCP portfolio announced January 23, 2008: – – – Energy supply measures: increase share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020 Energy demand measures: 20% reduction in energy consumption through energy efficiency Transportation, buildings, agriculture: reduce emissions 10% below 2005 levels • • – Commitments by car makers to reduce CO2 emissions rate from new passenger cars by 25% below 1995 levels by 2008/2009 Increase share of sustainable biofuels to 10% of overall petrol and diesel consumption Improved EU ETS Source: Point Carbon, European Climate Change Program, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation • The EU ETS is one of the policies to tackle climate change • Why Emissions Trading? – Way of reducing emissions at least cost to industry – offers industry more flexibility than ‘traditional’ regulation – Offers incentives for industry to go beyond what is expected of them – Overall environmental impact the same 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation EU and the Kyoto Protocol • EU as whole is a Party to the Kyoto Protocol and agreed to 8% reductions • In 1998 the then EU 15 agreed a burden sharing agreement • All 27 MS have ratified Kyoto, 23 have emission targets as Cyprus and Malta are non-Annex 1 Parties • Ranging from a 21% reduction for Germany, 12.5% reduction in the UK and a 15% increase for Spain • Most new Member States have set a target of 8% below base level, with the exception of Hungary and Poland – 6% below 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Relevant EU Decisions • • • • EU Emission Trading Directive Registry Regulation Linking Amendment (CDM and JI) Monitoring Mechanism (Kyoto Reporting and Registries) • Monitoring Guidelines 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation How does the EU ETS work? • “Cap and trade” system with Carbon dioxide as the only Green House Gas • First phase runs until December 31st 2007 • 2nd phase in line with 1st Kyoto Protocol commitment period, 2008-2012 • Mandatory for certain activities as energy activities, ferrous metals, mineral industry and pulp and paper • Allowances freely tradable throughout EU • One allowance = one tonne of CO2e 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Monitoring and reporting • Calendar year reporting of emissions • 28th February each year - each participant receives allocation of allowances (year X) • End of March final report of Emissions (X-1) • By end of April following year- each participant must surrender number of allowances equal to annual reportable emissions (X-1) these allowances then cancelled • Operator needs sufficient allowances in account to cover emissions 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Options for Participants • Annual emissions exactly equal to the number of allowances given each year • Decrease emissions and sell surplus • Let emissions remain high and buy extra allowances needed to cover the gap • Penalty per tonne of excess emissions – €40 (2005-2007) – €100 (2008-2012) • Still have to bring account into compliance 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Transactions in the EU ETS 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation EU ETS Market • Price volatility • Prior to 2005 driven by political dimension • First Phase Market to understand and come into line with fundamentals • Uncertainty regarding CDM credits, EU connection to ITL and EU Phase II 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Review of EU ETS Directive • Commission Review to improve function and design post 2012 • Priority areas include – – – – – – expansion to other sectors and gases the most appropriate process for setting the cap; harmonised allocation methodology (including CHP); linking to other schemes at national and regional level; robust compliance; streamlining – small emitters and harmonised definitions • Report from the EU Commission, surveys and papers 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation EU Trading Directive EU-25 UK Trading sector Non trading sector Sweden Non trading sector EUA Trading sector 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Linking Directive Annex I countries ratified the Kyoto protocol EU-25 JI JI Non-annex I countries ratified Kyoto protocol CDM Countries that haven’t ratified the Kyoto protocol EUA ERU CER 1.2 International Treaties and EU legislation Kyoto Transactions Module 1. - Introduction 1. Introduction to Climate Change 2. International treaties and EU legislation 3. Flexible Mechanisms: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 4. Carbon Credits Markets: Primary and Secondary Markets 1.3 CDM and JI 1997: Marrakech Accords Flexible Mechanisms CDM Clean Development Mechanism JI Joint Implementation Goals of CDM 1. Facilitate the transfer of clean practice and technology to developing countries 2. Incentive for developed countries to invest in Emission reduction projects in developing countries 3. Streamline financial flows to project activities that reduce emissions 4. Allow for cost efficiency in emission reductions 5. Build a rigorous regulatory architecture for the generation of Carbon Credits 6. Build a knowledge base for projects and policies 1.3 CDM and JI CDM IN SHORT Monitoring &Verification Emission Reduction Project in a Non Annex I Country CDM Procedure Eligibility Sale of CERs Entity in Annex I Country CERs 1.3 CDM and JI CDM: Figures More than 5,000 CDM Projects in Pipeline More than 8 USDbn worth of primary transactions More than 2,300 CDM Projects Approved 182 Methodologies Around 1 bn CERs expected to be generated before 2012 1.3 CDM and JI CDM Project Types and Methodologies Methane CO2 Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency Landfill Gas Associated Gas (oil fields) Animal Manure Industrial Gases N2O destruction from Adipic acid and Nitric acid production plants HFC destruction in Cooling gases plants or poliurethane injection plants 1.3 CDM and JI CDM Program of Activities Replacement of Light bulbs with CFL in cities and districts Replacement of electric engines with more efficient ones in industrial sectors Distributed renewable energy production in houses and buildings Very complicated and under development 1.3 CDM and JI CDM Projects in the Caribbean 6 project registered: OK! 3 Terminated: Too Bad! 6 at validation: we’ll see… Title Pine Ridge Landfill Gas to Energy Project Energas Varadero Conversion from Open Cycle to Combined Cycle Methane capture and destruction on Calle 100 landfill in Havana and Cabo Engaño Wind Project Juancho – Los Cocos wind farm project, 100 MW El Guanillo wind farm in Dominican republic Bionersis project on La Duquesa landfill, Dominican Republic CEMEX Dominicana. Blended cement project. CEMEX Dominicana: Alternative fuels and biomass project at San Steam Generation Using Biomass Textile Offshore Site Dominicana Biomass Residues Cogeneration Guyana Skeldon Bagasse Cogeneration Project Blend increasing in the cement production of Caribbean Cement Wigton Wind Farm Project (WWF) Host country Province / State Bahamas Grand Bahama Island Cuba Matanzas Cuba Havana city & Dominican La Altagracia Dominican Barahona & Dominican Monte Cristi Dominican Santo Domingo Dominican Republic San Pedro de Macorís Dominican San Pedro de Dominican Santo Domingo Dominican Monseñor Nouel Guyana East BerbiceJamaica Saint Andrew Jamaica Manchester Status At Validation Type Landfill gas Registered Registered Validation Validation Registered Registered At Validation At Validation At Validation At Validation Registered Validation Registered EE supply side Landfill gas Wind Wind Wind Landfill gas Cement Cement Biomass energy Biomass energy Biomass energy Cement Wind Sub-type Landfill power Single cycle to combined cycle Landfill power Wind Wind Wind Landfill flaring Klinker replacement Klinker replacement Agricultural residues: rice husk Agricultural residues: rice husk Bagasse power Klinker replacement Wind Module 1. - Introduction 1. Introduction to Climate Change 2. International treaties and EU legislation 3. Flexible Mechanisms: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 4. Carbon Credits Markets: Primary and Secondary Markets 1.4 Carbon Credits Markets Buying and selling carbon credits Credits: what credits? Compliance Credits - CERs Carbon Credits Voluntary Credits - VERs 1.4 Carbon Credits Markets Markets - what markets? Primary non Guaranteed Secondary non Guaranteed Secondary Guaranteed Usually offtake contracts Delivery qty non guaranteed No penalties for the seller Seller is usually project owner or developer Projects are early stage From projects or portfolios Delivery non guaranteed Can be offtake or portions of total delivery Seller is sometimes the developer or the primary buyer Contracts are for specified guaranteed delivery quantity Seller bears penalties OTC or Exchange traded 1.4 Carbon Credits Markets Who’s buying Primary non Guaranteed Who’s selling Project Owners Carbon Funds Project Developers Compliance buyers Banks Secondary non Guaranteed Aggregators Governments Primary buyers Banks Carbon Funds Carbon Funds Secondary Guaranteed and Aggregators Banks Industries 1.4 Carbon Credits Markets What is a Carbon Fund Technology $ Technology $ Finance Investor Companies CO 2Equivalent Emission Reductions Carbon Fund Finance Project Owners in Dev. Country or Economies in Transition CO Equivalent 2 Emission Reductions 1.4 Carbon Credits Markets Exchange Prices 1.4 Carbon Credits Markets Exchange Prices – Historical Origination of Carbon Credits Project Cycle for CDM and JI 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI CDM project cycle Average duration 18 months Project feasibility assessment Project development (PDD) DNA DOE Host county approval Project validation Emission reduction projects must undergo a rigorous process of documentation and approval, in order to generate carbon credits Projects must follow a baseline and monitoring methodology Development time for a new methodology: over 1 year Project additionality is key Project registration Crediting period DOE Project verification Project certification CERs Ensures that the project would not be implemented without carbon credits support and does not create additional emissions CDM project cycle is led by UNFCCC, while the voluntary credits involves just DOEs Kyoto Protocol comes to an end in 2012, yet post2012 Funds already exist, signalling confidence in a future international regime 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI The Project Design Document (PDD) • An official component of the CDM project cycle • Official standardized template is available from the UNFCCC website • Covers all the information essential for ‘carbon layer’ assessment • Incorporates significant project thinking – project design, partnerships, funding, revenue and cost forecasts, due diligence, sensitivity analysis, etc. • The PDD is validated by a Designated Operational Entity and describes the baseline and monitoring methodology that must be carried out • PDDs are public documents 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI The DNA and host country approval • The Designated National Authority (DNA) is the legal entity authorised to sign a Letter of Approval (LoA) for a CDM project • Typically an inter-ministry agency (Environment, Economy, Energy, Meteorology, etc.) with a small secretariat • The DNA provides written approval that the CDM project assists in achieving the country’s sustainable development • The details of the approval procedure are up to each country • Typically, 3 broad development criteria are employed: Economic: the project has a positive effect on economic development Environmental: the project leads to reduced pressure on the environment Social: the project has positive effects on social development 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI Project validation • A required ‘pre-approval’ step for CDM project registration • Undertaken before the project crediting period, and (typically) before implementation / construction of the project • Requires assessment of the assumptions, calculations, methodologies and justifications relating to the baseline scenario Is the project truly additional? Will the greenhouse gas emission reductions be monitored and calculated appropriately? 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI Project validation Undertaken by Designated Operational Entities (DOEs): – Essentially audit companies: – Confirm that the PDD conforms to CDM requirements and correctly applies the baseline methodology and greenhouse gas quantification procedures – Check calculations are accurate and assumptions are reasonable in the PDD – Confirm that the project satisfies the additionality requirement – Make the PDD available for public review DOEs submit the PDD to the CDM Executive Board for registration (together with Letter of Approval from the DNA) 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI Project Verification • Undertaken after the CDM project has been implemented and has started to generate greenhouse gas reductions. • Typically requires rigorous data collection, testing and evaluation of evidence to present a complete audit trail • Essentially, seeks to confirm two things: 1. that past greenhouse gas performance has been appropriately calculated and reported 2. that the project has been executed in accordance with the validated PDD • Verification is undertaken by a DOE – but not the one that performed the validation Verification can take place as often as the project developer wishes – represents a balance between cost and revenue 2. Project Cycle for CDM and JI Certification and CER issuance • • • • The DOE provides a verification report to the project participants and the executive board. The report is made publicly available. The verification report constitutes a request for issuance to the Executive Board of CERs equal to the verified amount of reductions of anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases. The issuance of CERs is considered final 15 days after the date of receipt of the request for issuance. • The Executive Board then instructs the CDM registry to issue the specified quantity of CERs in the CDM registry: a. A Share of Proceeds (SOP-Admin) fee is deducted b. 2% of the total CERs are deducted as a “SOP-Adaptation fee” c. The remaining CERs are forwarded to the registry accounts of the project participants involved Module 3. Primary Market 1. The transaction: ERPA – Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement 2. Case Studies 3. Cost evaluation for a typical CDM Cycle 3.1 The transaction: ERPA Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement The Transaction Process PIN Term Sheet Annual verification Issuance of CERs Due Diligence Project Operation Payment and transfer of CERs To the Buyer ERPA PDD Validation Registration 3.2 Cost evaluation for a typical CDM Cycle CDM Cycle Costs PDD Validation CDM Project Management Registration Fee (SOP Admin to EB) Verification Report Issuance (SOP Adaptation) 5,000 – 25,000 EUR 20,000-45,000 EUR 10,000-20,000 EUR 0.2 USD* CER/y 15,000 EUR 2% of issued CERs ……. Contigencies, Intermediation, etc. About 20% of above 3.2 Cost evaluation for a typical CDM Cycle CDM Cycle Main Risks Validation Negative PDD Validation CDM Project Management Rejection after Validation Registration Fee (SOP Admin to EB) Delays in the process Delays in project implementation Changes in project performance UNDER DELIVERY 5,000 – 25,000 EUR 20,000-45,000 EUR 10,000-20,000 EUR 0.2 USD* CER/y Price Vs. Risks/Uncertainities GCERs DISTANCE NGCERs Counterparty risks PRICE DISCOUNT Counterparty Risks Project Risks Regulatory Risks Delivery Risks Module 4. The Secondary Market 1. Trading Carbon Credits and Allowances on Exchange Platforms and OTC 2. Carbon Primary and Secondary Pricing 4.1 Trading Carbon Credits and Allowances on Exchange Platforms and OTC