An Impact Analysis
of Electrifying
Florida’s Public
Buses
AER Group, Tallahassee FL
Buddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney,
Alicia Queen
Project Scope
 Proterra
Inc. contracted AER Group to
perform an impact analysis of converting
Florida public buses from diesel to electric
•
Direct cost savings
•
Indirect benefits
2
Electric Bus Alternative
 The
•
•
•
•
Proterra EcoRide
Equivalent lifespan of a
diesel bus (12 years)
Improved fuel
efficiency
Simplified motor
FastFill™ Charging
Station
3
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Impact
Analysis
Additional
Benefits
Annual
Expenditures
Increased
Economic Activity
Reduced
Externalities
4
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Impact
Analysis
Additional
Benefits
• Purchase Price
• Facility Upgrades
Annual
Expenditures
Increased
Economic Activity
Reduced
Externalities
5
Initial Investment for Electric
Higher than Diesel
$1,200
Initial Investment in Thousands
$1,000
$800
$790,000
$600
$480,000
Charging Station
Bus Purchase Price
$400
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012
6
Initial Investment for Electric
Higher than Diesel
$1,200
Initial Investment in Thousands
$1,000
$800
$310,000
$600
Charging Station
Bus Purchase Price
$400
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012
7
Federal Grants Cover at least 80% of
Initial Investment for Electric and Diesel

Tallahassee’s StarMetro received 100% federal
funding for electric buses in 2011
Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD
8
Initial Investment for Electric Higher
than Diesel, but Offset by Federal Grants
$1,200
Initial Investment in Thousands
$1,000
$800
$600
Charging Station
Bus Purchase Price
$400
$62,000
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook 2012
9
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Annual
Expenditures
Impact
Analysis
• Maintenance
• Fuel Cost
Increased
Economic Activity
Additional
Benefits
Reduced
Externalities
10
Electric Bus Has a Simpler
Mechanical System
Engine
Engine Oil
Engine Components
Gearbox
Belts
Fuel Systems
Traction Motor
Alternator
Exhaust Systems
Retarder
Diesel
Battery
vs.
Proterra Inc., 2013
Electric
11
Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an
Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel
$1,200
Cost in Thousands
$1,000
$800
$600
Maintenance
$400
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011
12
Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an
Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel
$1,200
Cost in Thousands
$1,000
$800
$112,000
$600
Battery
Maintenance
$400
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011
13
Electricity and Diesel Price Projections
Needed to Estimate Fuel Costs to 2035
$ per Gal. Equivalent
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
Electricity
Diesel
Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook, 2013
14
Apply National Diesel Price Projections
to Florida without Modification
$7
$ per Gallon
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
U.S.
Lower Atlantic (FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV)
Source: US Energy Information Administration
U.S. Projected
15
Apply National Diesel Price Projections
to Florida without Modification
Florida Projection
Source: US Energy Information Administration
16
Electricity Prices Vary Due To
Numerous Utilities Throughout Florida
Source: Florida Public Service Commission, Facts and Figures 2013
17
Buses Concentrated in Densely
Populated Areas
Holmes
Escambia
Santa Rosa
Jackson
Okaloosa
Walton
Washington
Nassau
Gadsden
Calhoun
Bay
Leon
Liberty
Gulf
Franklin
Jefferson Madison
Wakulla
Taylor
Hamilton
Duval
Baker
Suwannee
Columbia
Union
St. Johns
Clay
Bradford
Lafayette
Gilchrist Alachua
Putnam
Dixie
Flagler
Levy
Marion
Volusia
Number of Buses
No buses
1-50
51-200
201-500
501-1,000
Citrus
Lake
Seminole
Sumter
Hernando
Orange
Brevard
Pasco
Hillsborough
Osceola
Polk
Pinellas
Indian River
Manatee
Sarasota
Hardee
Okeechobee
Highlands
St. Lucie
DeSoto
Martin
Charlotte
Glades
Hendry
Lee
Palm Beach
Broward
Collier
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Source: Florida Department of Transportation
18
$0.15
$0.13
$0.11
$0.09
$0.07
$0.05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Electricity Price ($ per kWh)
Apply National Electricity Price
Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%
U.S. Average
Florida Weighted Average
Source: EIA, FMEA
U.S. Average Forecast
19
Apply National Electricity Price
Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%
Source: EIA, FMEA
20
Electric Buses Are 5x More Fuel
Efficient than Diesel
Source: Penn State Bus Testing and Research Center, NTD
21
Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Electric
$450K less than Diesel
$1,200
Fuel Cost in Thousands
$1,000
$800
$600
Fuel Cost
$400
$445,000
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: Penn State, NTD
22
Total Lifetime Cost for Electric
Bus Lower than Diesel
$1,200
Total Lifetime Cost in Thousands
$1,000
$800
Charging Station
$600
Bus Purchase Price
$400
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA
23
Total Lifetime Cost for Electric
Bus Lower than Diesel
$1,200
Total Lifetime Cost in Thousands
$1,000
$464,000
$800
Fuel Cost
Battery
$600
Maintenance
Charging Station
$400
Bus Purchase Price
$200
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA
24
Conversion Plan – Purchase
200 Electric Buses Each Year
Number of Buses in Fleet
3,000
Full Conversion
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Electric
Diesel
25
Annual Total Cost of Diesel
Fleet and Conversion
350
Annual Total Cost in Millions
300
Initial
Investment
Battery
Purchase
250
200
150
100
50
Increased
Fuel
Efficiency
Total Cost
Difference
Full
Conversion
0
Remain Diesel
Electric Conversion
26
Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost of
Electric Fleet is $120M Less Per Year
$200
Full Conversion
$160
Annual Savings in Millions
$120
$80
Recoupment
$120 million
$40
$0
-$40
-$80
Initial
Deficit
27
Electric Fleet Continues to Generate
Savings with Constant Federal Grants
$200
$160
Reference
Annual Savings in Millions
$120
$80
$40
Constant Grants
$85 M
$0
-$40
-$80
28
Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay
Constant Until 2035
$ per Gallon Equivalent
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
Electricity
Diesel
Source: US Energy Information Administration
29
Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay
Constant Until 2035
$ per Gallon Equivalent
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
Electric
Diesel
Source: US Energy Information Administration
30
Electric Fleet Continues to Generate
Savings with Constant Fuel Prices
$200
$160
Reference
Annual Savings in Millions
$120
$80
$40
Constant Fuel Prices
$80 M
$0
-$40
-$80
31
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Impact
Analysis
Additional
Benefits
Annual
Expenditures
Increased
Economic Activity
Reduced
Externalities
32
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Impact
Analysis
Additional
Benefits
Annual
Expenditures
Increased
Economic Activity
Reduced
Externalities
33
Electrifying Public Bus System
May Create New Jobs
34
Additional Electricity Demand May
Require a New Power Plant in Florida
 Current
supply and demand of electricity
is in equilibrium
 Charging
electric buses at peak times will
create unplanned demand for electricity
A
new electricity plant of 85 MW may be
needed
Source: Florida Public Service Commission
35
If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is Built, It
Will Stimulate the Florida Economy
Category
Estimate
Construction Spending
$110 million
Operating Cost
$2.5 million/year
Annual Sales
$50 million/year
New Jobs (direct & indirect)
100 permanent jobs
Personal Income Increase
$20 million
Estimates produced using a regional economic
model by REMI, Inc.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission
36
Local Governments Can Divert Transit
Cost Savings of $120M to Other Services
If cost savings are spent on education:
Category
Estimate
Annual Cost Savings
$120 million
New Jobs (direct & indirect)
500 permanent jobs
Personal Income Increase
$40 million
Estimates produced using a regional economic
model by REMI, Inc.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, FMEA, FDOT, Proterra Inc.
37
Electrifying Public Bus System Could
Reduce Negative Externalities
 Since
2001, “clean diesel” has helped reduce
air pollutants
 CO2
 Will
emissions have not been reduced
conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?
Source: USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (2009), US EPA
38
CO2 from Electric Buses Comes from
Production of Electricity at Power Plants
40 metric tons of CO2 per bus annually
Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA
39
CO2 Emissions Are Significantly
Lower for Electric Buses
160
Annual CO2 Emissions Per Bus
Metric Tons of CO2
140
120
100
CO2 emissions
are 75% lower for
an electric bus!
80
60
40
20
0
Diesel (2012)
Electric (2012)
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission
40
Metric Tons of CO2, in Thousands
Electrifying Transit Will Continually
Reduce CO2 Emissions
450
Fleet CO2 Emissions, 2013 – 2035
400
350
At full conversion,
300k tons of CO2
can be saved
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Total CO2 - Conversion
Total CO2 - Diesel Only
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission
41
Electrifying Could Reduce Externality
Cost by as Much as $7M Annually
$7.5m
$4.5m
$4m
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission
42
Conclusion
Impact of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses
43
Methodology
Initial Investment
Cost
Comparison
Impact
Analysis
Additional
Benefits
Annual
Expenditures
Increased
Economic Activity
Reduced
Externalities
44
Florida Would Benefit from
Electrifying the Public Bus System
 At
•
•
•
full conversion:
Annual cost savings of $120M
Creation of up to 600 jobs
Reduced externality effect by $7M
 It
makes economic sense for Florida to
adopt an electric bus system
45
46