CO2 emission scenarios in Russia to
2050 – energy and economy dimensions
Fedor Veselov, Alexei Makarov, Vladimir Malakhov
Moscow Carnegie Center. Round Table “Climate policy after Durban: prospects
for the Russian economy”
Moscow, January 2012
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Economy growth and emission scenarios
Russian Energy Strategy to 2030 (ES-2030) assume the Baseline (Innovative) scenario with GDP
growth 3.2 times by 2030 and 6.8 times by 2050. Under the lower world fuel prices’ trends and more
intensive national energy efficiency and emission policy in the Environmental scenario GDP will
grow up in 2.8 times by 2030 and 5.7 times by 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios will form two
different GHG emission trends.
700
650
600
200
AGR (10-30) = 4.8%
GDP (% to 1990)
GHG emissions (% to 1990)
AGR (10-30) = 4.4%
550
500
160
140
450
AGR (10-30) = 1.5%
AGR (30-50) = 0.3%
400
120
350
100
300
80
250
200
AGR (10-30) = 0.4%
AGR (30-50) = -0.3%
150
100
60
40
20
50
0
1990
180
2000
Energy Research Institute RAS
2010
2020
2030
2
2040
0
2050
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Energy demand and emission scenarios
Energy efficiency is expected to be the first important factor affecting the future GHG emission
trends. Cumulative energy efficiency growth will result to the decrease of energy intensity (3.4-4.2
times by 2050) as well as the electricity intensity (2.5-2.7 times by 2050).
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
GDP electricity intensity (% to 2005)
GDP energy intensity (% to 2005)
2010
2020
2030
2040
300
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2050
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
TPEC (% to 1990)
Electricity (% to 1990)
GHG emission (% to 1990)
40
20
0
1990
2000
Energy Research Institute RAS
2010
2020
3
2030
2040
60
40
20
0
2050
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Primary energy consumption, mln. toe
Total primary energy
consumption, Mtoe
1400
1300
120
Consumption of renewables, Mtoe
110
1200
100
1100
90
1000
900
80
800
70
700
600
60
50
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
100
10
0
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2005
2050
gas
liquid fuels
solid fuels
hydro
nuclear
other renewables
2010
2020
2030
2040
Renewable for electricity
Biomass for electricity
Biomass for boilers
Solar for heat
Heat pumps
Biomass and waste
2050
Changes in the TPEC structure to the non-carbon energy resources (nuclear and renewables) will be the
second factor affecting GHG emission trends.
The share of natural gas in TPEC will fall from 52% to 47-49% in 2030; liquid fuel – from 16.3 to 14.516%. The total share of non-carbon resources will grow from 13.8 to 18-21%. Renewables (excl.
large hydro) will form 4.6-4.7% of total energy consumption in 2030 and 9-11% in 2050. Biomass will
remain a dominant renewable resource and form ¾ of total “green” energy consumption in 2030 and still
60% in 2050.
Energy Research Institute RAS
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The role of power sector in energy balance
1400
1300
1200
650
Total primary energy consumption by
sectors of economy, Mtoe
600
Primary energy consumption In the
power sector, Mtoe
550
1100
500
1000
450
900
400
800
350
700
300
600
250
500
400
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
2005
pow er plants
transport
2010
2020
2030
heating boilers
raw needs
2040
2050
2005
industrial needs
domestic households
gas
2010
2020
liquid fuels
solid fuels
2030
hydro
2040
nuclear
2050
renewables
Electricity and heat supply will increase their impact on the domestic energy demand the share of power
plants and boiler houses will increase from 54% of TPEC in 2005 to 57% in 2050 within the environmental
scenario and remain nearly the same within the innovation scenario. The sector will remain the main area
of inter-fuel (resources) competition and may ensure the reduction of gas share in the energy demand for
electricity and heat from 49.8% to 42-43% in 2030 and 31-33% in 2050.
Energy Research Institute RAS
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Electricity production structure
3000
2800
200
Total electricity generation, TWh
180
2600
2400
Generation of RES plants, TWh
160
2200
140
2000
1800
120
1600
100
1400
1200
80
1000
60
800
40
600
400
20
200
0
0
2005
2010
Hydro
Thermal CPP
2020
2030
Nuclear
Thermal CHP
2040
2005
2050
2010
Small hydro
Renewable
2020
Wind
Solar
2030
Geotherm
2040
2050
Biomass
Energy mix in the power sector may be diversified by the intensive growth of non-carbon (hydro, nuclear
and renewable) power plants. Their share will grow from 34% to 39-45% in 2030 and 50-55% in 2050.
Nuclear will rapidly increase their share from 16% to 26-29 in 2030 and 35-37 in 2050. Renewables will
remain the marginal resources for generation. RES generation (mainly at biomass and wind plants) will
rise 2-3 times per decade, but will not exceed 3% in 2020 and 7-8% in 2050.
Energy Research Institute RAS
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GHG emissions trends: an important consequence but not
a main target of Energy Strategy
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Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO2
3000
Annual energy-related GHG
emission in the Innovation scenario
will nearly reach 1990 level by 2030
and by 2050 will stabilize at 170 Mt
(+6%) higher.
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
Emissions in the Environmental
scenario by 2030 will remain at 540
Mt lower (-20%) 1990 level and 660
Mt lower (-25%) by 2050.After 2030
volumes of emissions will start to
decrease
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1990 2005
CO2 gas
2010
CO2 liquid
2020
2030
CO2 coal
Energy Research Institute RAS
2040
2050
methane
other
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Implementation of the
Environmental; scenario will
require strong GHG emission
regulation policy. GHG regulation
measures must be incorporated
into the economy modernization
toolbox
Power sector economics will form the long-term trends of
CO2 value. Impact of carbon abatement costs
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140
Carbon abatement costs, S/t CO2
120
100
80
60
Least-cost CO 2 abatement
options for the Russian
power sector
40
20
0
-20
-40
Gas CHP
Nuclear
CCGT
Biomass
Wind
onshore
CCGT
with CCS
Wind
onshore
Notes:
Wind – grid connection/system integration costs are not included
CCS – CO2 transportation and sequestration costs are not included
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Coal USC
with CCS
IGCC
IGCC with
CCS
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Power sector economics will form the long-term trends of
CO2 value. Impact of JI-type projects
Dollars
“Carbon” revenues from ERU selling
Revenues from electricity market
Capital
costs
“Carbon”
investments
Fuel and O&M costs
Year
s
Project description:
• substitution of gas-fired steam turbine unit (38% efficiency) by a CCGT unit (55% efficiency)
• CCGT capital costs 1200 $/kW
• Gas price at $150/1000 cm
• Electricity price at $60/MWh
• “Carbon” investments/revenues are estimated for total 10 year ERU amount
Required carbon price to
ensure IRR
IRR=10%
IRR=15%
Case 1
All revenues from ERU are obtained before the
project commissioning as “carbon” investments to
decrease project capital costs
50
88
Case 2
All revenues from ERU are obtained after the
project commissioning
61
91
Case 3
Revenues from ERU are shared between before and
after project commissioning phases (“carbon”
investments cover 25% of capital costs).
58
88
Energy Research Institute RAS
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Effect of carbon costs on the power sector emissions
and macroeconomic indicators
Generating capacity structure
+7 $ bln per 10 Mt СО2
100
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
80
y = -0.729x - 24.875
R 2 = 0.963
60
40
20
0
7
0
-50
-20
Hydro+RES
Nuclear
BAU
25 $/t CO2 100 $/t CO2
CHP
CPP gas
CPP coal
Increase of electricity price [US cent/kWh]
СО2 emission from power
plants, Mt
1000
BAU
900
Basecase
price(2030)=25$/t CO2
price(2030)=50$/t CO2
800
price(2030)=75$/t CO2
price (2030)=100$/t CO2
700
600
500
+0.4-0,5 US cent/kWh per
10 Mt СО2
5
2025
4.5
4
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Energy Research Institute RAS
AGR (201520)
6
AGR (202030)
5
4
Decrease of CO2 emission in resp. of
Basecase
2030
y = -0.051x - 1.325
2
R = 0.949
3.5
3
3
0
2.5
2
y = -0.036x - 1.138
R 2 = 0.949
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
400
2005
-150
Decrease of CO2 emission in resp. of
Basecase [Mt CO2]
0%
2005
-100
GDP annual growth rates
Additional capital costs, $ bln
100%
-50
-100
DEcrease of CO2 emission in resp. to
Basecase [Mt CO2]
10
-150
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS)
www.eriras.ru
Acad. Alexei Makarov, Director
makarov_ire@zmail.ru
Dr. Fedor Veselov, Head of the Electric Power Sector Development & Reform
Department
info@eriras.ru, erifedor@rambler.ru
Dr. Vladimir Malakhov, Head of the Energy Demand, Energy Efficiency and
Scientific and Technological Progress Department
macrolab@eriras.ru
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