MENA Water Outlook 2050
Water Scarcity and Adaptation
Options
Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers
Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo
Study Design
• Objectives
– Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050
– Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage
• Steps
–
–
–
–
Climate and other change projections
Hydrological impact model
Water resources supply/demand analysis
Cost and benefits adaptation options
• Limitations
– Large scale so simplifications, generalizations
WEAP Modeling Framework
• WEAP modeling setup
–
–
–
–
–
–
22 countries
Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater
Irrigation, Domestic, Industry
2000-2050
3 climate change models
Results from hydrological model
Catchment
Reservoir
Irrigation
Urban
Industry
Groundwater
Outlet
RESULTS: DEMANDS
Results
2000
2010
2020
Demand curves MENA (AVG)
2030
2040
2050
Results
Demand curves MENA (DRY)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Demand curves MENA (WET)
2000
2010
2020
Results
Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)
Results
Demand and Supply
Curves MENA (DRY)
Demand and Supply
Curves MENA (WET)
Iran
Morocco
Yemen
Egypt
Water Demand-Shortage
(MCM)
Algeria
Bahrain
Djibouti
Egypt
Gaza Strip
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Malta
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
U.A. Emirates
West Bank
Yemen
MENA
Demand
2000-2009
6,356
226
28
55,837
162
79,703
43,968
3,140
1,113
508
1,202
4,125
88
15,739
891
489
21,733
16,183
2,772
3,370
403
5,819
263,853
Demand
2020-2030
8,786
321
46
70,408
299
92,310
57,130
4,619
1,528
867
1,525
4,974
122
19,357
1,544
602
26,667
19,446
3,985
3,495
652
8,162
326,842
Demand
2040-2050
12,336
391
84
87,681
527
110,081
71,113
6,081
2,276
1,216
1,869
5,982
148
24,223
2,807
641
35,257
24,418
5,916
3,389
1,061
19,065
416,562
Unmet
2000-2009
0
195
0
2,858
140
11,325
7,272
2,118
853
0
141
0
34
2,092
0
234
10,572
873
0
3,036
256
1,262
43,265
Unmet
2020-2030
8
304
0
22,267
283
29,721
26,907
3,733
1,338
310
471
1,399
80
9,175
663
418
18,146
4,539
17
3,203
555
3,540
127,078
Unmet
2040-2050
3,925
377
0
32,085
505
51,753
43,096
5,130
2,061
788
876
3,625
107
15,381
2,194
481
28,535
9,498
2,853
3,173
957
14,289
221,691
MCM/year; average climate change
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Water Marginal Cost Curves
• Closing supply-demand gap:
– Increasing the productivity
– Expanding supply
– Reducing demand
• Water marginal costs curves
• Assumptions:
– Net present value (US$ 2010)
Strategies
• Increasing the productivity:
– A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)
– B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry
– C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture
• Expanding supply:
–
–
–
–
D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)
E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
F: Desalination by means of using solar energy
G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis
• Reducing demand:
– H: Reduce irrigated areas
– I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply
Strategies (increase productivity)
• A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop
varieties)
– Typical examples:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
drip and sprinkler irrigation
no-till farming
improved drainage
utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development
optimizing fertilizer use
innovative crop protection technologies
extension services
– Costs
• US$ 0.01 per m3
• = US$ 100 per ha per year
– Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:
• Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP)  US$ 100 per ha per year
• 2030 Water Resources Group  US$ 0.02 – 0.03 per m3
Strategies (increase productivity)
• B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and
industry
– Costs
• US$ 0.30 per m3
– Note: costs can vary substantially.
• What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)
Strategies (increase productivity)
• C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture
– Assumptions
•
•
•
•
Reuse only for agriculture
No water treatment system
Only operational and investment costs
50 mm per year
– Costs
• Total: US$ 0.04 per m3
• 50% annualized capital costs of investment
• 50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)
Strategies (expanding supply)
• D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)
• E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
– Costs
•0.03 $/m3 for small scale
•0.05 $/ m3 for large scale
– Note: costs can vary substantially
•sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya  0.04 $/m3
•Aslantis Dam, Turkey  0.035 $/m3
Strategies (expanding supply)
• F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP)
• G: Desalination using reverse osmosis
– Assumptions
• Details see presentation by Fichtner
– Costs
• CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050
• Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3
– Note: costs can vary substantially
• Especially energy
Reverse
Osmoses
Multi Effect
Distillation
SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses
MSF = Multi Stage Flash
MED = Multi Effect Distillation
Strategies (reducing demand)
• H: Reduce irrigated areas
– Assumptions
• Reduce irrigated areas by 10%
– Costs
• 0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15
$/m3.
– Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:
• Crops
• Irrigation method
• Climate
Virtual Water Trade
RESULTS
Water Supply and Demand
MENA region
KM3 PER YEAR
DEMAND
AVG
CC Scenario
DRY
WET
2000-2009 2040-2050 2040-2050 2040-2050
264
417
435
398
Irrigation
Domestic
Industry
213
28
23
265
88
64
283
88
64
246
88
64
UNMET DEMAND
43
222
306
104
Irrigation
Domestic
Industry
36
4
3
144
45
34
204
58
44
61
22
21
221
189
130
283
171
50
150
39
99
31
228
55
SUPPLY
Surface water
Groundwater
MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves
All values in 2010 US$
net present value
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)
Algeria
Algeria
Algeria
Bahrain
Bahrain
Bahrain
Djibouti
Djibouti
Djibouti
Egypt
Egypt
Egypt
Gaza
Gaza
Gaza
Strip
Strip
Strip
Iran
Iran
Iran
Iraq
Iraq
Iraq
Israel
Israel
Israel
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait
Lebanon
Lebanon
Lebanon
Libya
Libya
Libya
Malta
Malta
Malta
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Oman
Oman
Oman
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar
Saudi
Saudi
Saudi
Arabia
Arabia
Arabia
Syria
Syria
Syria
Tunisia
Tunisia
Tunisia
U.A.
U.A.
U.A.
Emirates
Emirates
Emirates
West
West
West
Bank
Bank
Bank
Yemen
Yemen
Yemen
MENA
MENA
MENA
Shortage
Shortage
Shortage
Costs
Costs
Costs
MCM
MCM
MCM million
million
million
US$
US$
US$
3,925
3,925
3,925
353535
377
377
377
130
130
130
00 0
00 0
32,085
32,085
32,085
4,000
4,000
4,000
505
505
505
200
200
200
51,753
51,753
51,753
6,000
6,000
6,000
43,096
43,096
43,096
12,000
12,000
12,000
5,130
5,130
5,130
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,061
2,061
2,061
750
750
750
788
788
788
250
250
250
876
876
876
200
200
200
3,625
3,625
3,625
700
700
700
107
107
107
353535
15,381
15,381
15,381
4,000
4,000
4,000
2,194
2,194
2,194
700
700
700
481
481
481
150
150
150
28,535
28,535
28,535
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,498
9,498
9,498
1,250
1,250
1,250
2,853
2,853
2,853
200
200
200
3,173
3,173
3,173
1,100
1,100
1,100
957
957
957
325
325
325
14,289
14,289
14,289
4,200
4,200
4,200
221,691
221,691
221,691
47,025
47,025
47,025
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
%GDP
2050
US$/m3
US$/m3
US$/m3 US$/capita
US$/capita
US$/capita %GDP
%GDP
%GDP
2010
2010
2010 %GDP
%GDP
2050
2050
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
11 1
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.34
0.34
0.34
969696
1.15
1.15
1.15
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
00 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.12
0.12
0.12
272727
3.27
3.27
3.27
0.33
0.33
0.40
0.40
0.40
108
108
108
0.18
0.12
0.12
0.12
565656
1.76
1.76
1.76
0.18
0.18
0.87
0.28
0.28
0.28
196
196
196
8.71
8.71
8.71
0.87
0.87
0.12
0.35
0.35
0.35
171
171
171
1.21
1.21
1.21
0.12
0.12
0.66
0.36
0.36
0.36
717171
6.59
6.59
6.59
0.66
0.66
0.05
0.32
0.32
0.32
474747
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.05
0.05
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.23
393939
2.49
2.49
2.49
0.25
0.25
0.08
0.19
0.19
0.19
646464
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.08
0.08
0.47
0.33
0.33
0.33
777777
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.47
0.47
0.54
0.26
0.26
0.26
727272
5.47
5.47
5.47
0.54
0.54
0.23
0.32
0.32
0.32
969696
2.35
2.35
2.35
0.23
0.23
0.07
0.31
0.31
0.31
161
161
161
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.07
0.07
0.30
0.32
0.32
0.32
154
154
154
3.04
3.04
3.04
0.30
0.30
0.36
0.13
0.13
0.13
353535
3.59
3.59
3.59
0.36
0.36
0.02
0.07
0.07
0.07
131313
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.02
0.02
0.31
0.35
0.35
0.35
253
253
253
3.16
3.16
3.16
0.31
0.31
0.03
0.34
0.34
0.34
104
104
104
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.03
0.03
3.16
0.29
0.29
0.29
454545
31.82
31.82
31.82
3.16
3.16
0.21
0.21
0.21
67
67
67
2.58
2.58
2.58
0.26
0.26
0.26
Conclusions
• Study
–
–
–
–
–
Advanced hydrological-water resources approach
In country variability
Monthly approach
Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture
Scoping study
• Overall results
–
–
–
–
–
Renewable water resources 20% reduction
Water shoratge 220 km3 (range 104-306)
Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35)
Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98)
Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP)
• Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place
now!
Comparison Other Studies
• “Economics of adaptation to climate change” (World
Bank, 2010):
– Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030)
– Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050)
– MENA: US$ 2.5 – 3.6 billion per year (2050)
• “2030 Water Resources Group”
– MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030)
• Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007):
– MENA: 1 – 3.6% of GDP (currently)
• AQAU-CSP (DLR)
– Water shortage: 50 km3 (current)
– Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050)
2050:
Shortage (km3): 220 (104-306)
Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98)
GDP (%): 0.3 – 2.5
Way Forward
• Water shortage:
– Unconventional decisions needed
– Food, environment, tourism, industry?
– Subsidies on water-food-energy
• Water-energy nexus
• Long and short term decisions
• Detailed case studies (country, topic)
THANK YOU
GDP projections
Morocco
Egypt