Carlos Fuller
International and Regional Liaison
Officer

Source: IPCC
Source: NMS,
Belize
PGIA Average Temperatures
27.4
27.2
27.0
26.8
26.6
26.4
26.2
26.0
25.8
25.6
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Years
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Guyana:
• Temp increase of 1°C from 1909 to 1998
• Sea level rise is 5 times greater than global avg.
– 10.2 mm per year from
1951-1979
• Rainfall patterns abnormal
– More intense rainfall and longer dry spells
Source: IPCC

More Extreme Events !
Saint Lucia Example
2009/2010: Worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40 years!
Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours!

Results from the Regional
PRECIS Model
ECHAM4 – A2 HADCM3 – A2
Annual warming of between 1°C and
5°C by the 2080s
Greater warming in the NW
Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba,
Hispaniola, Belize) than in the eastern
Caribbean
Greater warming in the summer months than in the cooler and traditionally drier months of the year
ECHAM4 – B2 HADCM3 – B2
Mean changes in the annual surface temperature for period 2071-2099

Results from the Regional
PRECIS Model
A drier Caribbean except for western
Cuba , south Bahamas, Costa Rica and
Panama
ECHAM4 – A2 HADCM3 – A2
A pronounced north/south gradient in rainfall change during the dry season
(January to April)
Wet season becoming drier
ECHAM4 – B2 HADCM3 – B2
Annual mean changes in rainfall (%) for
2071-2099

• Erosion
• Coastal flooding
• Inundation
• Saltwater intrusion
• Mangroves
• Tourist destinations
• Human settlements
• Water supply
• Agriculture
• Aquaculture
• Fisheries

Water Security:
– Salt water intrusion
– Less rainfall
–
More evaporation

Vulnerability Studies on Agriculture in Belize
• DSSAT
• Beans, corn and rice
• 2°C rise in temp, ±20% change in precipitation
• Result: 14- 19% decline in yield for beans
• Result: 10 - 14% decline in yield for rice
• Result: 22 – 17% decline in yield for corn
• PRECIS, DSSAT4 and Cropwat
• Sugarcane and Citrus
• 2028 & 2050
• 1 & 2.5°C rise in temp
• ± 12 & 20% change in precipitation
• Result: 12-17% decline in yields for sugarcane
• Result: 3 – 5% decline in yields for citrus

Higher Temperatures
Lower Humidity
More Forest Fires
More Pests and Diseases
• Belize: 1999-2000
• High temperatures & low humidity
• Pine bark beetle infestation
• 75% of nation’s pine forest destroyed
• Poor forest management
• Climate change
• Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity
• Contributed to emissions of GHGs
• Increased erosion – poor water quality (rivers and sea)

Impacts of One Metre Sea level Rise for
CARICOM
• Over 2,700 km 2 land area lost (10% of The Bahamas) valued at over US$70 billion
• Over 100,000 people displaced (8% of population of Suriname, 5% of population of The Bahamas, 3% of population of Belize)
– Cost to rebuild basic housing, roads and services (water, electricity) for displaced population approximately US $1.8 billion
• Annual GDP losses of US $1.2 billion (over 6% in Suriname, 5% in The Bahamas,
3% in Guyana and Belize)
• At least 16 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost, with a replacement cost of over US $1.6 billion and the livelihoods of thousands of employees and communities affected
• Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (4% in Suriname, 3% in The Bahamas, 2% in Jamaica)
• Transportation networks severely disrupted
– Loss of 10% of CARICOM island airports at a cost of over US $715 million
– Lands surrounding 14 ports inundated (out of 50) at a cost of over US $320 million
– Reconstruction cost of lost roads exceeds US $178 million (6% of road network in
Guyana, 4% in Suriname, 2% in The Bahamas)
Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies

Impacts of One Metre Sea Level Rise for
CARICOM
• Total Economic Impact:
• GDP loss = > US $1.2 billion per year
(cumulatively US $30 billion if 1m SLR occurs in 2075)
• Permanently lost land value = US $70 billion
• Reconstruction / relocation costs = $4.64 billion
Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the
Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies

• Endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of
Government in July 2002
• An intergovernmental specialized agency of CARICOM with an independent management that is guided by
The CARICOM Council of Trade and
Economic Development (COTED) on policy matters.
A board of directors with responsibility for strategic planning.
A technical secretariat headed by an
Executive Director with responsibility for tactical planning.
• The Centre is mandated to coordinate the regional response to climate change and its efforts to manage and adapt to its projected impacts.
 Operational since
January 2004
• The Centre possesses full juridical personality.
 Located in
Belmopan, Belize
• Financially independent

The Regional Framework for Achieving Development
Resilient to Climate Change
The Regional Framework:
“Establishes and guides the
Caribbean’s direction for the continued building of resilience to the impacts of global climate change
by CARICOM States”.
Articulates the strategic direction for the region’s response to climate change risks.
Approved by the CARICOM Heads of
Government at their meeting in
Georgetown, Guyana in July 2009
14

The Five Strategic Elements of the Regional
Framework
Mainstreaming
Climate Change into the SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
AGENDA and work programmes of public and private institutions in all
Caribbean Community countries at all levels
Promoting systems and actions to
REDUCE THE
VULNERABILITY of
Caribbean Community countries to global
Climate Change wherever possible
Promoting measures to DERIVE BENEFIT
FROM THE PRUDENT
MANAGEMENT of forests, wetlands, and the natural environment, in general, and to protect that natural environment
Promoting actions and arrangements to
REDUCE GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS, including those aimed at energy-use efficiency by increasingly resorting to low-emission renewable energy sources
Promote implementation of
SPECIFIC ADAPTATION
MEASURES to address key vulnerabilities in the Region.
15

The Implementation Plan
The Implementation Plan (IP) for the
Regional Framework, defines the regional strategy for coping with
Climate Change over the period 2012-
2022
Approved by the 23 rd Inter-Sessional
Meeting of CARICOM Heads held in
Suriname 8-9 March, 2012.
16

Sectors Identified in the Regional Framework
Tourism
Health
Coastal and marine
Energy
Water
Agriculture and food security
Forest

• Assess, quantify and map surface and ground water resources in CARICOM States (2012-2017) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
• Undertake vulnerability and capacity assessment of the impacts of climate change on water (2011-2017)
- In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
• Assess, quantify and evaluate water demand and consumption patterns (2011-2015) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean

• Prepare water sector adaptation strategies for all
CARICOM countries by 2017 – CIMH & CEHI
• Implement water sector adaptation strategies for all
CARICOM countries (2013-2021) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
• Develop climate resilient IWRM strategies in all
CARICOM countries (2011-2016) - In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
• Establish water resources management agencies where necessary and provide additional support where agencies exist (2012-2017) – In collaboration with GWP Caribbean

• Install water distribution infrastructure in selected countries (2012-2012)
– Antigua, Dominica, Jamaica and St. Kitts
• Strengthen the resilience of water infrastructure to extreme events/natural hazards (2012-2021)
– Antigua, Belize, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Kitts

• MACC
– Regional climate change policy
– Climate Modeling
– Vulnerability assessment of ground water in Jamaica
– Vulnerability assessment of surface water in Belize
– Development of Belize national water policy and National Integrated
Water Act (NIWA)
• SPACC
– Rainwater harvesting and recycling Saint Lucia Coconut Bay Hotel and
Resort
– Installation of salt water reverse osmosis system in Bequia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines
– Installation of irrigation system in Milton, Dominica
• UNESCO Coastal Aquifers Project
– Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

• Rainfall projected to decrease in the Caribbean
– 26-53% decrease in precipitation by 2050
• More intense extreme events (storms and droughts)
– Hurricane Tomas in Saint
Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24 hours!
– 2009-2010-worst drought in
Saint Lucia in 40 years!

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• The property uses, on average,
2.1 million gallons (9,534,000 litres) per month, or 5% of the total production for the Vieux-
Fort area
• Coconut Bay operates a 3-pool water park, which uses substantial quantities of water-
225,000 US Gallons
• 2nd highest consumer of water in Vieux-Fort. It uses the water equivalent of 1,726 persons per day (population of 14,561 persons), or approximately 12% of the Vieux-Fort population

• Rainwater harvesting system for toilet flushing and pool topping.
• Rainwater used for toilet flushing will be treated in sewage treatment system and recycled for landscaping-two-prong conservation of potable supply
• Expected reduction in water purchased for toilet-flushing and replenishment of swimming pools by approximately 3,000,000 litres annually
• Sewage treatment, recycling and irrigation -for landscaping
• This component will reduce the amount of water purchased for maintenance of the grounds by approximately 21,000,000 litres annually

• Cost (works) EC$773 846.56
• Capacity of wastewater storage tank 204 360 L (44
953 Imp gal)
• Capacity of north rain water storage tank 18 014 L
(3 962 Imp gal)
• Capacity of south rain water tank 27 020 L (5 944
Imp gal)

• MOU between the CCCCC, the Government of Saint
Lucia and Coconut Bay indicating roles and responsibilities of each party
• Full approval of project by the Development Control
Authority in 2009
• Signed Financial Agreement between the CCCCC and
Coconut Bay
– Co financing 75:25
– Budget of US$325,000

• Operating costs increased – electricity to run pumps
• Environmental benefits
– the avoided loss in revenue from tourist reef related activities
– the avoided loss in revenue from reduced fishes landed
– the avoided loss in beach and sea recreational activities
– the avoided property damage
• Social benefits
– Reduced demand on municipal water supply
– Health
• Net present cumulative economical, social and environmental benefits must range from:
– @ 5% discount factor US$1.5 million to US$3.3 million
– @10% discount factor US$1.1 million to US$2.4 million
– @15% Discount factor US$0.9 million to US$1.9 million

• From a financial perspective, CBBRAS must seek to minimize the cost associated with this system as the resort will be responsible for financing the cost associated with operating these systems.
• However, CBBRAS might see it differently as some of the cost included in our analysis, such as labour cost, which based on the cost scenarios range from 12% to 33% of annual total cost, can be looked at business as usual, as well as, there might be existing economies of scale and cost saving measures that our analysis did not capture.

• Recognition for exemplary work
• Initiative can be a good marketing tool
• Enhanced resilience of resort during potable water shortages
• Cost savings for
Coconut Bay Beach
Resort and Spa!

• Install 60 hydrometeorological stations in
CARIFORUM States (GCCA project)
• Replicate the Dominica, Saint Lucia and St.
Vincent and the Grenadines pilots projects across the Caribbean (GCCA project)
– Petite Martinique and Carriacou, Grenada

Please visit our website for further information!
Carlos Fuller
International and Regional Liaison Officer cfuller@caribbeanclimate.bz