Demographic changes
and social security:
Challenges and opportunities
Julien Damon
(associate Professor, Paris, Sciences Po)
01.12.2010. Cape Town,
www.issa.int
A synthesis of the ISSA’s work on demographic challenges
Prevention
(in all fields)
Activation
(for employment)
Special Commission on Employment and
prevention.
unemployment
insurance policies.
Family benefits.
Insurance against
occupational accidents
and diseases.
Family benefits.
Insurance against
occupational accidents
and diseases.
Health and sickness
insurance benefits.
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
Protection
(throughout life)
Statistical, actuarial and
financial studies.
Social security
investment funds.
Invalidity – old age –
survivors’ insurance.
Health and sickness
insurance benefits.
2
Identifying seven major demographic changes
 Ageing
 Changes in family structures
 Changes in the labour market
 Urbanization
 Life-cycle desynchronization
 Migration
 Changes in social structure
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
3
Ageing around the world as the central challenge
Percent of population age 65 or older
1980

2010
8
5
World
16
7
6
3 3
Africa
4
7
16
8
4
Asia
Source : UN, PRB
13/04/2015
2040
15
14
25
www.issa.int
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More
Developed
Regions
4
Converging trends in family structures
Number of children per woman
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Source : UN
13/04/2015
Worldwide
In developed countries
www.issa.int
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
In developing countries
5
Wide-reaching transformations in the labour market
Positive correlation - fertility and working women (OECD)
Source : OECD
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
6
Urbanisation of populations and lifestyles
Percent of population living in urban areas
89
86
76
69
73
65
62
53
47
41
37
36
29
14
World
Source : UN, PRB
13/04/2015
16
Africa
Asia
1950
2000
www.issa.int
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More
Developed
Regions
2050
7
The unequal desynchronisation of life cycles
Life expectancy at birth, in years
82
80
77
76
72
65
67
75
65
49
Africa
Source : UN, PRB
13/04/2015
Asia
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
2000-2005
More Developed
Regions
World
2045-2050
www.issa.int
8
Migrations to come and movements to follow
Origin and destination of international migrants
Source : UNDP
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
9
The global evolution of social structures
Reduction in extreme poverty (percentage)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981
Source : MDG
13/04/2015
1984
1987
1990
1993
with less than US$ 1.25 per day
1886
1999
2002
2005
with less than US$ 2.5 per day
www.issa.int
10
Still a World of Differences…
Sewerage sanitation
Source : worldmapper.com
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
11
Conclusion
 The demographic challenges and crisis
as opportunities
 Yet more challenges…
 Dynamic social security as a decisive
actor for change
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
12
Thank you
13/04/2015
www.issa.int
13