Chapter 3: Theories
of International
Decision Making
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Decisions and actions in the
international arena can be
understood, predicted, and
manipulated only insofar as the
factors influencing the decision
can be identified and isolated.
Arnold Wolfers,
political scientist
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Choice and Consequence
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Foreign Policy Making in
International Affairs
 Transnational actors and decision
processes
 Influences on making foreign
policy decisions
• Global or external conditions
• Internal characteristics, including
the nature of leadership
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Transnational Actors
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Countries
International organizations
Multinational corporations
Nongovernmental organizations
Indigenous nationalities
Terrorist networks
Individuals
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International Decision Making and
a “Funnel of Causality”
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International Decision Making
and a “Funnel of Causality”
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Three Models of Decision
Making by Transnational Actors
 Rational Choice
 Bureaucratic politics
 Political psychology of leaders
and leadership
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Decision Making as Rational
Choice
 Problem recognition and definition
 Goal selection
 Identification of alternatives
 Choice
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“How Are Foreign Policy
Decisions Reached?”
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Impediments to Rational Choice
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Bounded rationality
Cognitive dissonance
Game theory
Two-level games
Externalities
Overloaded policy agenda
Prospect theory
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Road-Trip Diplomacy
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Foreign Policy Decision Making
in Theory and Practice
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Bureaucratic Efficiency and
Rationality
 Assign different tasks to
different people
 Multiple advocacy
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The Limits of Bureaucratic
Organization
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Bureaucracy
Bureaucratic politics model
Policy networks
Caucuses
SOPs
Groupthink
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Collective Decision Making
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The Leverage and Impact of
Leaders
“There is probably no
history, only biography….”
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Leaders as Movers of World
History
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History-making individuals model
Bush Doctrine
Roles
Instrumental rationality
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Constraints on Individual
Leadership
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Law
History
Circumstance
Zeitgeist
Political efficacy
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The Major
Factors Affecting
Foreign Policy
Decision and
International
Relations:
Influences at
Three Levels
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Controversy: Do Leaders
Make a Difference?
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The Domestic Determinants
of Foreign Policy Decisions
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States’ attributes
Military capabilities
Economic conditions
Type of government
Constitutional democracy
Autocratic rule
Diversionary theory of war
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The Burden of Foreign Policy
Choice for Global Leadership
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Global Influence on Foreign
Policy
 Military alliances
 International trade
 Global distribution of power
• Polarity
 Geostrategic position
• Geopolitics
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Geographic Influences on
Foreign Policy
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Questions for Critical Thinking
1. Did Kennedy and Nixon choose courses of action
that reflected who they were as individuals?
Would any president in their respective eras have
made similar choices?
2. How would rational choice theorists understand
the behavior of Nixon? Of Kennedy? What are
limitations of the rational choice approach for
explaining their policy decisions?
3. What are some other factors, domestic or
international, that could have affected Kennedy
and Nixon’s decisions regarding their respective
military engagements, beyond zeitgiest?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
4. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the
history-making individuals model? Who qualifies
as a history-making individual?
5. What factors explain why bureaucracies do not
always produce the best options?
6. In what ways does the individual level of analysis
affect foreign policy making?
7. How does public opinion in the U.S. affect current
foreign policy?
8. What are some contemporary examples of the
importance of geopolitics?
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Web Links
 The Cuban Missile Crisis
 Freedom, Democracy, Peace, Power,
Democide, and War
 Freedom House
 The Presidents: PBS’s The
American Experience
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