11 Chapter Models of Decision Making Dynamics of Decision Making Group Decision Making Individual and Group Decision Making 11-2 Models of Decision Making Rational Model logical four- step approach to decision making McGraw-Hill Identifying the problem Generating alternative solutions Selecting solution Implementing and evaluating the solution © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-4 Simon’s Normative Model of Decision Making Based on premise that decision making is not rational Decision making is characterized by Limited information processing Use of judgmental heuristic Satisficing McGraw-Hill © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-6 Decision Making Styles High Low Analytical Conceptual Directive Behavioral Tasks and Technical Concerns Figure 11-2 People and Social Concerns Value Orientation McGraw-Hill © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-7 Escalation of Commitment Figure 11-3 Psychological and Social Determinants * Ego defense * Individual motivators * Peer pressure * Saving face Organizational Determinants * Breakdown in communication * Politics * Organizational inertia Escalation of commitment Poor results or outcomes Project Characteristics * A delayed return on the investment * Setbacks attributed to temporary causes Contextual Determinants * External political pressure McGraw-Hill © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-9 Requirements for Effective Group Decision Making 1) 2) 3) 4) Developing a clear understanding of the decision situation Developing a clear understanding of the requirements for an affective choice Thoroughly and accurately assessing the positive qualities of alternative solutions Thoroughly and accurately assessing the negative qualities of alternative solutions McGraw-Hill © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Advantages and Disadvantages of Group-Aided Decision Making Advantages Greater pool of knowledge Different perspectives Greater comprehension Increased acceptance Training ground McGraw-Hill 11-11 Table 11-2 Disadvantages Social pressure Domination by a vocal few Logrolling Goal displacement “Groupthink” © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-12 Participative Management Participative Management the process whereby employees play a direct role in: McGraw-Hill Setting goals Making decisions Solving problems Making changes in the organization © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-13 Group Problem Solving Techniques Consensus presenting opinions and gaining agreement to support a decision Brainstorming process to generate a quantity of ideas Nominal Group Technique process to generate ideas and evaluate solutions Delphi Technique process to generate ideas from physically dispersed experts McGraw-Hill Computer-Aided Decision Making © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-15 Creativity Creativity process of developing something new or unique McGraw-Hill © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 11-16 Figure 11-4 Stages of the Creativity Process Preparation McGraw-Hill Concentration Incubation Illumination Verification © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.