David Lowry
September 2013
Creativity in petroleum
exploration — finding the
next new play
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Park Dickey, 1958
“We usually find oil in new places with old
ideas. Sometimes, also, we find oil in an old
place with a new idea, but we seldom find much
oil in an old place with an old idea”
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Park Dickey, 1958
“We usually find oil in new places with old
ideas. Sometimes, also, we find oil in an old
place with a new idea, but we seldom find much
oil in an old place with an old idea”
Needs creativity
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The creative process:
1. Motivation
2. Incubation
3. ‘Eureka’ moment
4. Evaluate and promote
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The creative process:
1. Motivation
2. Incubation
3. ‘Eureka’ moment
4. Evaluate and promote
Link two
previously
unrelated ideas
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Classic example 1 Archimedes
Was a gold crown pure gold?
1. Motivation – local tyrant lent on him
2. Incubation – problem of measuring density.
Weight easy but volume of an irregular
object?
3. ‘Eureka’ moment – getting in a bath, noticed
water rise; rise a measure of volume
immersed
4. Evaluate and promote
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Classic example 2 Newton
What held moon in orbit?
1. Motivation – love of discovery
2. Incubation – 20 years study, developed
calculus
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Classic example 2 Newton
What held moon in orbit?
1. Motivation – love of discovery
2. Incubation – 20 years study, developed
calculus
3. ‘Eureka’ moment – strolling in apple orchard;
linked the fall of an apple with the orbit of the
moon
4. Evaluate and promote – 11 years to
formalise theory gravitation and publish
Principia mathematica
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Petroleum Exploration
Most exploration areas in Australia
have one (or more) serious risks in
reservoir, seal, source, timing
Logical analysis
Creativity
relinquish
new play / concept
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Reverse engineering under duress
(Lowry, 1981, APEA Jour pt 2)
1. Visualise success; explain
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Reverse engineering under duress
(Lowry, 1981, APEA Jour pt 2)
1. Visualise success; explain
2. Select most plausible explanation and
identify evidence against it (what might be; not
what is most probable)
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Reverse engineering under duress
(Lowry, 1981, APEA Jour pt 2)
1. Visualise success; explain
2. Select most plausible explanation and
identify evidence against it (what might be; not
what is most probable)
3. Look for evidence for concept
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Reverse engineering under duress
1. Visualise success; explain
2. Select most plausible explanation and
identify evidence against it (what might be; not
what is most probable)
3. Look for evidence for concept
4. Weigh up
back to Stage 2
sell it to your manager
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Example: Rift valley, mid 70’s
The problem: How to propose a prospect
when
Objective
the objective is so deep it will be tight.
The problem: How to sell a prospect when the
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objective is so deep it will be tight.
5%
10%
Mean
porosity
sandstone
cores
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The problem: How to propose a prospect
when
Objective
the objective is so deep it will be tight.
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The problem: How to propose a prospect
when
Objective
the objective is so deep it will be tight.
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Traditional:
Basin& Range
model; alluvium
gets coarser
towards fault
margin
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Traditional: alluvium gets coarser towards fault
margin
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Eureka!
Why not an African Rift
Valley model with
lacustrine shale close to
fault
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No evidence against – no wells drilled in depocentre
Evidence for – extensive seismic reflectors in central
area
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What aspects of exploration served us well in the past that we are
letting slip in the rush of company life?
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Model: modern heat flow constant.
Modern stratigraphy
Modelled maturity
Measured Ro
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Model: modern heat flow constant.
Modern Stratigraphy with
stripping
Modelled maturity
Measured Ro
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Model: modern heat flow constant.
Modern Stratigraphy with
stripping
Modelled maturity
Measured Ro
VIRF
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Model: modern heat flow constant.
Modern Stratigraphy with
stripping
Modelled maturity
Measured Ro
FAMM
VIRF
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1. Be sceptical of data and technologies
2. Know your technologies
3. Nurture your creativity
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