Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability
Based Planning
Emile F Pelletier
Strategic Planning Operational Research Team
Defence Research and Development Canada
Centre for Operational Research and Analysis
1-09-2010
Defence Research and
Development Canada
Recherche et développement
pour la défense Canada
Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
Outline
• References
• Introduction
• the SC2RAT Tool
– Inputs
– Method
– Outputs
– Way Ahead
• Questions
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
References
• Burton, R.M.H., Christopher, G.L., Chouinard, P.,
Kerzner, L.F., Maj Simonds, K., (2005). Procedures,
processes and tools of capability-based planning: An
outline for a Canadian approach. DRDC-CORA TR
2005-035, November, 2005.
• Christopher, G., Blakeney, D., Petryk, R., Taylor, B.,
Kerzner, L., Fong, V., …, Beard, A., (2009). Strategic
capability roadmap version 1.0 analytic framework.
DRDC-CORA TR 2009-013, December, 2009.
• TTCP JSA TP3 (2006). Guide to capability-based
planning [Word document]. Retrieved from Public
Scientific & Technical Information Online Web site.
http://www.dtic.mil/ttcp/JSA-TP-3-CBP-PaperFinal.doc.
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
Introduction
• Capability Based Planning process depends
on harnessing ‘soft’ SME inputs into
numeric data to use to produce an
investment plan.
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
Introduction
Scenarios
Planning
> req’ts
Management
> affluences/deficiencies
Integration
> plan
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(Burton, Christopher, Chouinard, Kerzner, & Simonds, 2005)
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
Capability Planning
• Steps to Identify
Capability
Requirements
• Chief of Defense
Staff Action Team
Capability
Assessment Matrix
(CATCAM)
• Output: Prioritised
list of Capability
requirements,
Capability goals
(MoC)
(Christopher et al., 2009)
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
Capability Management
• Map CF Force Structure to required Capabilities
• The Scenario Capability + Capacity Requirements
Assessment / Outlook Tool (SC2RAT)
• A set of scenarios assessed with SC2RAT generates
a list of Capability deficiencies.
• Concurrency analysis completes this list and allows
production of a list of affluences.
• Consideration of capability deficiencies and
development of possible alternatives
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP
Components of SC2RAT
• SC2RAT uses a mix of hard and soft elements
• Soft OR in SC2RAT:
– SMEs provide objective input
– Interpreting MoCs that come from planning
– Judgment to choose Force Elements to conduct
required capabilities and assessing quantities of
each FE required
• Hard OR in SC2RAT:
– Algorithms and various calculations
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The SC2RAT Tool
Inputs
• Scenarios
– Scenario Analysis (CATCAM)
• Capability requirements
• Prioritisation of Capabilities (CATCAM
scores)
• Measures of Capability (MoCs)
• Capability Framework
• Force Structure
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The SC2RAT Tool
Inputs
Qualitative
Capability Framework
Scenarios
Measures of Capability
Conceptual
Factual
Force
Structure
CATCAM
Scores
Quantitative
Subject Matter Expert (SME) input
SME + OR Analyst Support input
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The SC2RAT Tool
Method
• SMEs determine:
– Force Elements (w/ qty.) to conduct
Capabilities
– Assessment across time-slices
• SC2RAT calculates:
– Capability Outlook: a colour-coded
depiction of the overall ‘health’ of
capabilities over time
– Capability Deficiencies
– Force Packages: list quantities of FEs
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required
The SC2RAT Tool
Method
Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version
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The SC2RAT Tool
Method
• Soft aspects of SC2RAT method
– Group interpretation of MoCs:
• translate into quantifiable assessments
which are quantities of FEs needed to
conduct capabilities
– Working with conceptual inputs:
• Capability Framework
• Scenarios
• CATCAM scores
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The SC2RAT Tool
Outputs
• Capability Outlook
to show results at a
broad level
• Capability
Deficiencies for
consideration and
development of
Alternatives
• Force Packages for
input into the
Concurrency Tool to
allow for
identification of
Capability
affluences
Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version
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The SC2RAT Tool
Outputs
Qualitative
Conceptual
Factual
Quantitative
Defence R&D Canada
• R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool
Outputs
Qualitative
Capability Deficiencies
Capability Outlook
Factual
Conceptual
Force Packages
Quantitative
Subject Matter Expert (SME) output
SME + OR Analyst Support output
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The SC2RAT Tool
Outputs
Qualitative
Capability Framework
Scenarios
Capability Deficiencies
Measures of Capability
Capability Outlook
Factual
Force
Structure
Conceptual
CATCAM
Scores
Force Packages
Quantitative
Subject Matter Expert (SME) output
SME + OR Analyst Support output
Subject Matter Expert (SME) input
SME + OR Analyst Support input
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The SC2RAT Tool
Way Ahead
• Capturing discussions in SC2RAT (‘soft’)
• Allow the allocation algorithm to substitute
different FEs for unavailable FEs (‘hard’)
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Questions
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