Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Analysis in Distribution Networks
Workshop Thursday, 3 June 2010 Hungarian Energy Office
Peter Albertsson, Sweden
Continuity of supply I
1930s
• Locally produced
• Intermittent supply
• Light
• Radios
No problem with long interruptions
Continuity of supply II
1960s
• National grid
• Thunderstorm black-outs
• Light, Radio, TV
• Pumps, elevators etc.
• Preserving food
Frequent hour-long interruptions
Continuity of supply III
2010s
• International grid
• Weather black-outs
• Information
• Heat, water, food
• Machinery
• Life support
Interruptions unwanted!
Hurricane Gudrun I
Saturday January 8 2005
>0C
> 43 m/s winds hit the coast
> 30 m/s over land
730,000 powerless by midnight
380,000 after one day
230,000 after three days
130,000 after one week
60,000 after three weeks
Hurricane Gudrun II
Getting rid of fallen trees
Temporarily repairing the lines
5000 men from Sweden,
another 300 electricians
from neighboring countries
Military, volunteers
DSOs knew what to do – but
had not enough men!
Hurricane Gudrun III
60,000 powerless after three
weeks
Power back to all except some
summer houses after forty
days
Restore grids permanently:
cables instead of overhead
lines (still going on)
Gudrun IV: After the storm
Amendments to the Law
• Reimbursements from 12 h
• Risk- and vulnerability
assessment
• Action plan
• Information to customers
And from 1 January 2011:
• No outage > 24 h
Ever increasing need for
better continuity of supply
Systematic search for grid
weaknesses
• Risk and Vulnerability
assessment (RVA)
• Asset management
(future possibility)
Risk assessment: no novelty
Risk analysis of technological
systems
IEC 60300-3-9 (1995)
•
Preliminary Hazard Analysis
•
Fault- / event-trees
•
FMEA
Risk assessment: the latest
A little more general
Of less specific use for us
I would still recommend
IEC 60300-3-9
General Risk matrix
Risk is
The combination of the
frequency, or probability of
occurrence and the
consequence of a specified
hazardous event
Probability
Frequency
(IEC 60-300-3-9:1995)
Consequence
Swedish specific Risk matrix
The most common black-out reasons:
- Weather (wind, snow, thunderstorms)
- Failing equipment (ageing)
- Construction (digging)
Note the difference between risk and
perceived risk in upper right corner!
The owner of the substation is not the
company who is dependent of it and did
this risk assessment.
Technology related view
Different approaches:
1.
Lines – the grid itself
2.
Stations – components
3.
Complexity – grid redundancy
4.
Organisation
Preliminary Hazard Analysis
•
Systematic brainstorm technique
•
Experience needed
•
Teamwork – the more different
competences the better
•
Good overview – no details
•
Initial screening
•
Pitfall: solution orientation
SE Lessons learnt I: Legislation
• Output regulation
(result oriented)
• Established method
(E.g. IEC standard)
• Documentation
• Reports to EI
(including confidentiality)
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3
Scope:
Distribution, Transmission < 220 kV
Topics:
Introduction and definitions
Analysis: what to do and achieve,
suggested methods from standards,
how to visualize (e.g. risk matrix),
advise on documentation.
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3
Topics (continued):
Action plans (scheduled)
Vulnerability based criteria:
• Number of customers
• Non delivered power (MW)
• Non delivered energy (kWh)
• Time to get up and running
• (Society vulnerability)
SE Lessons learnt II: Implementation
• Co-operate
• Meet
• Educate
• Listen
• Acknowledge
• Share good practices
• Share good examples
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3
DSO’s annual report
Which method for the risk analysis
(with source)?
Which way to visualize, assess and
rank risks?
How many risks (in four groups) –
identified and to action plan?
Circumstances giving problems to
“no outages longer than 24 h”?
How many actions shall be taken?
Are the actions on time?
SE Lessons learnt III: Future supervision
• Checking that the RVA is done
• Monitoring the data of
interruptions / continuity of
supply
• Bad performance leads to
1. Contact
2. Visit
3. Checking what was done
4. Demands
Asset management: PAS 55:2008
Management system
Managing physical assets to
maintain or reinvest right
Compare:
ISO 14000 for environment
ISO 9000 for quality
Network companies are
certified by 3rd party
Asset management ISO standard
BSI has invited
40 delegates plan to come
End of April cancelled (ash)
15 – 18 June, London
Beginning of preliminary work
Acknowledgements and thanks
• IEC / BSI / IAM / ISO
• Lines: Öresund Safety
• Stations: Fortum
• Complexity: Grontmij
• Organisation: SEAB,
Staffanstorp, Skåne
• Preliminary Hazard
analysis: Boden Energi Elnät
• UK: Ofgem
Thanks for your attention
Köszönöm
Tack för uppmärksamheten
Danke schön
Mange takk
Kitos
Gracias
Eucharisto
Todah Rabah
Hungarian views courtesy Erik Blomqvist