“3 Horizons” and Verge EFF
Given who the beneficiaries of foresight are, a
50-year time horizon REQUIRES considering
where drivers will emerge and how their
impacts will unfold in the human context over
the next five decades.
The “3 horizons” framework helps map
when change might phase in and out;
the Ethnographic Futures Framework helps
explore and organise what changes may
arise.
“Three Horizons” Model of Change (Bill
Sharpe)
Dominance
of model
3rd horizon
2nd horizon
Pockets of
future found
In present
2009
1st horizon
“2020”
Graphic courtesy of Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
“2030”
Time
EFF Verge:
History
Began with frustration with limitations of STEEP taxonomy
Overly broad - human systems blur STEEP boundaries
STEEP views change from the point of origin
What categories help define our lives as human beings?
“Culture points”: highlighting key experiences as human
beings
Explore change at the point of impact on people and human
systems
Still arguing whether “Destroy” is a key aspect of human
experience
Intellectual roots in anthropology, ethnography, and ethnographic
futures research (Robert Textor), as well as social impact
assessment.
“LOTS of people – consultants in
particular – talk about the “drivers” of
change. And they’re usually referring
to technology when they do so. I
prefer to think about how change
happens across the various segments
of human experience.
Human history can be dissected (and
sometimes understood) as a series of
eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era,
the Industrial Era, the Information
Age. Common to each of these eras
or ages is a set of culture points
which define and shape each era and
which are common to all of human
experience.
For instance, while the role (and even
the flavor) of religion has changed
throughout time, the common need of
humans to have a framework for
understanding their world has
not. Likewise, while our weapons,
our choice of foods and structure of
our families may change throughout
time, the need for them does not.”
Michele Bowman, M.A. Futures
Kaipo Lum, M.A., A.B.D. Futures
Global Foresight Associates
VERGE as a Scanning Framework:
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we
use to define the
world around us
Social structures &
relationships which link
people and
organizations
The technologies used to connect
people, places and things
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods & services
VERGE was created by Michele Bowman and
Kaipo Lum of Global Foresight Associates.
mbowman@globalforesightinc.com
The goods & services
we create, and the ways
in which we aquire and
use them
VERGE: changes in how we DEFINE
The concepts, ideas and paradigms
we use to define ourselves and the
world around us
Example: radical biotechnology:
No extinction exists between
‘natural’ and ‘artificial’; highly
elastic notions of what ‘human’
looks like…
Social Values & Attitudes
Scientific Models
Culture
Economic Systems
Religion
Politics & Public Policy
VERGE: changes in how we RELATE
Social structures and
relationships which link
people and organizations
Example: radical biotechnology:
New ‘synthetic’ ethnicities;
some ecosystems treated as
living works of art; international
regulatory compacts to monitor
Impacts of bio-designs.
Demographics
Family & Lifestyle Groups
Work & Economy
Habitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & Practices
Government
Education
VERGE: changes in how we CONNECT
The technologies used to connect
people, places and things
Example: radical biotechnology:
DNA-based computing possible;
gifts of bio-designed life the new
Valentine bouquets; genetically
engineered organic sculptures…
Information Technology
Music
Media
Visual Arts
Language
Space
VERGE: changes in how we CREATE
The processes and technology
through which we produce
goods and services
Example: radical biotechnology:
Many new materials
‘manufactured’ on farms: goats
produce proteins, plants produce
plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’
monitor agricultural lands, water
quality, etc…
Engineering
Wealth
Manufacturing
Innovation Processes
Life Sciences
Materials Sciences
Nanotechnology
VERGE: changes in how we CONSUME
Touch Points
The goods and services we create
and the ways in which we acquire
and use them - and destroy them
Example: radical
biotechnology:
More ‘white goods’ mimic
organisms in design: selfrepair, communicate to
others of their kind, optimise
their intake / output of energy
and waste….
Consumer Goods
Energy
Food & Agriculture
House & Home
Entertainment & Leisure
Healthcare
Natural Resources
EFF Verge: Case
Studies
Futures presentations / workshops by Global Foresight Associates:
About identifying eternal verities around which change swirls
Fidelity Bank
Price Waterhouse Coopers
Massachusetts Department of Education
Women in Technology
Nissan Motor Company
Ford Motor Company
Babson College, Boston, Massachusetts
Future presentations / workshops by Infinite Futures:
President’s Panel, American Library Association
Singapore Civil Service College
Michele Bowman, M.A. Futures
Global Foresight Associates
Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. Futures
Infinite Futures
Future presentations / workshops by Henley Centre:
Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea
Eurostar
Andrew Curry
Henley Centre
EFF Verge: Case
Studies
Pitney Bowes:
Futuring Group
Growth Strategy Group
MTV User Profiles:
Social Technologies presented at Trends conference (ask
Terry Grim), “The Future of Happiness”
Created user profiles for MTV’s new customers:
Today’s users increasingly pragmatic in pursuit of happiness
User profiles: enabled comparative analysis of details of users’ lives
Health and Safety Executive Scenarios
Provided organizational frame and focus for rich welter of
detail generated by workshop discussions
Enabled detailed comparison across the scenarios on
issues critical to stakeholders and policy-makers.
“The VERGE framework has proven
extremely valuable at Pitney Bowes in
translating thinking about the future
into innovation and strategic decisionmaking. We've used VERGE in
several invention and strategy contexts
to organize and make sense of the
changes in the customer
communications environment. ...In
addition, the immediacy of VERGE
content provokes leaders to shift
strategies ahead of potential disruptive
change, and to see these disruptions
as opportunities, not threats.”
Christian Crews
Pitney Bowes
Christian Crews, M.S. Futures
Pitney Bowes
Andy Hines, M.S. Futures
Terry Grim, M.S. Futures
Social Technologies
Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. Futures
Infinite Futures
Exercise 1, morning session:
Points
How is 2050 differentTouch
from
2009?
•
Globally:
•
Major actors:
•
Define?
•
Winners?
•
Relate?
•
Losers?
•
Connect?
•
Businesses?
•
Create?
•
Organizations?
•
Consume?
•
Nations?
Personalise this, eg, young female
entrepreneur; senior environmental
regulatory officer; teen consumer; etc….
You have been assigned a scenario to explore.
Your task is to consider what changes might arise from
now until 2050 given the drivers defining your scenario.
Using the discussion questions below, imagine how 2050
in your scenario might differ significantly from life today.
What new concepts,
ideas, and paradigms will
emerge to help us make
sense of the world?
How will we live together
on planet Earth?
What arts and technologies will we use to
connect people, places, and things?
As human beings what will
we be inspired to create?
How will we use the
earth’s resources?
What would make this happen?
Create a timeline.
Dominance
of model
Impacts
3rd horizon
Impacts
Drivers
Impacts
Impacts
2010
Your
Impacts Scenario
nd horizon
2
2050
2020
Impacts
2030
2040
1st horizon
2050
Time
Reporting back.
•
You have ONLY TEN MINUTES, so…
•
•
Choose the most vivid details to make news
headlines for your future, e.g.:
•
Headlines,
•
People in the news,
•
Newsworthy events, breaking news
Be bold, be brief, be specific.
Exercise 2, afternoon
session
Add details: characters and their organisations,
conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:
• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:
• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will
contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how
their impacts might emerge over the timeline;
• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and
organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict
and collaborate;
• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do
they generate as people and issues interact?
• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!
How is 2050 different from
2009?
•
•
•
•
•
Scenarios tell a vivid and plausible story about
a possible future
Drivers and emerging issues of change
redefine who has resources and power
New and old characters interact to create
events in this new context
Their interactions include conflict and tensions
as well as new collaborations
The scenario story describes not only what’s
happening in 2050, but how 2050 happened:
the timeline.
EFF: scenario building focused on people
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we
use to define the
world around us
Social structures &
relationships which
link people and
organizations
The technologies used to connect
people, places and things
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods & services
The goods & services
we create, and the
ways in which we
acquire and use them
New concepts, ideas, and paradigms: actors
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to
define ourselves and the world around us,
including:
Actors: opinion leaders in the
news (bloggers? virtual reality
celebs?); scientists; artists and
writers; philosophers and social
revplutionaries… who are they
and what new models and
paradigms are they proposing?
Social Values & Attitudes
Scientific Models
Culture
Economic Systems
Religion
Politics & Public Policy
How will we live together on planet Earth?
- actors
Social structures and relationships
which link people and organizations,
including:
Actors: how do businesses
work together in this future -how do unions and businesses
relate? Who are the key NGOs?
Is the UN still relevant? What’s
the most important government
agency? How do families work?
Demographics
Family & Lifestyle Groups
Work & Economy
Habitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & Practices
Government
International Relations
Education
What arts and technologies will we use to connect
people, places, and things? - actors
The technologies used to connect people,
places and things, including:
Actors: who’s the most influential
news source, and why? Who are the
newest celebs and what do they
promote? What’s the biggest media
company? What’s the new
diplomatic language?
Information Technology
Music
Media
Visual Arts
Language
Space
What will we be inspired to create? - actors
The processes and technology through
which we produce goods and services,
including:
Actors: who are the angel investors in this
future? Who manufactures goods, and
where -- what’s the newest big MNC/TNC?
What is the ‘next big thing’ in this future, and
who is the “Bill Gates”? What universities
produce the most discoveries? Where and
how is food produced?
Engineering
Wealth
Manufacturing
Innovation Processes
Life Sciences
Materials Sciences
Nanotechnology
How will we use the earth’s resources? - actors
The goods and services we create and the ways
in which we acquire and use them - and destroy
them, including:
Actors: what is the equivalent of a shopping
centre? Who owns it? Is the line between
producing food and consuming it distinct or
blurred? Does everyone own their own home - are homes detached, or are flats the norm?
What’s the biggest energy company? What
organisation provides healthcare? Who
handles waste?
Consumer Goods
Energy
Food & Agriculture
House & Home
Entertainment & Leisure
Healthcare
Natural Resources
Who and what would make this happen?
Create a timeline.
Dominanc
e
of model
Events
Impacts
Events
Actors
3rd
horizon
Events
Drivers
Impacts
Actors
Events
Your
Scenario
2050
2nd
horizon
Actors
Actors
2010
2020
Impacts
Events
2030
2040
Events
2050
1st
horizon
Time
Exercise 2, afternoon
session
Add details: characters and their organisations,
conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:
• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:
• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will
contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how
their impacts might emerge over the timeline;
• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and
organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict
and collaborate;
• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do
they generate as people and issues interact?
• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!