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Voter Targeting,
Grassroots Style!
Presented by Josh Wolf
Director of Data and Technology at NOI
CandidateProject.org/academy
Presenter:
Josh Wolf
Director of Data and Technology at NOI
@winningwithwolf
josh@neworganizing.com
www.neworganizing.com
OBJECTIVES:
‣
By the end of this session, you will
know how to use a voterfile to target
and contact likely voters for your
local campaign.
AGENDA:
‣
Why Target?
‣
Likely Voters
‣
Using the Voterfile to Target
‣
Creating Walk Lists and Maps
‣
Next Steps
‣
Q&A
Why Target?
Limited Resources:
Time, People, and Money
Who to Target
Tier 1 Targets
• Share your beliefs (Same Party)
• Likely to Vote
Tier 2 Targets
• Share your beliefs (Same Party)
• Unlikely to Vote
Tier 3 Targets
• Undecided Voters (Non-Partisan)
• Likely to Vote
Shared Beliefs
Who shares my beliefs?
•
•
•
•
People in my Party
Some Non-Partisans or Independents
Family Members and Friends (sometimes)
Friends of Family Members and Friends
(sometimes)
Likely to Vote
What makes a voter likely to vote?
• Likeliest Voter: Voted in 2006, 2008, 2010
• Likelier Voter: Voted in 2008 and 2010
• Likely Voter: Voted in 2010
What makes a voter unlikely to vote?
• Voted in 2008, not 2010
• Registered to vote, but has not voted
Get Ready to Target!
Materials and Resources Needed
• Voterfile for the Elected Office District (visit the election
finder to contact your local Board of Elections)
• Microsoft Excel
• Internet
Understanding the Voterfile
• Name, Address, Party, Precinct, Voting History, Election
Districts
• Comes in many formats, so be prepared to be surprised!
How to Target
Grassroots Style Targeting Matrix
Party
Democrat
Non-Partisan
Republican
2006, 2008, &
2010
2008 & 2010
Only 2010
Only 2008
How to Target
Grassroots Style Targeting Matrix
2006, 2008, &
2010
2008 & 2010
Only 2010
Only 2008
Democrat
Tier 1 Target
Tier 1 Target
Tier 1 Target
Tier 2 Target
Non-Partisan
Tier 2 Target
Tier 2 Target
Tier 2 Target
Tier 3 Target
Republican
Danger Zone Danger Zone Danger Zone Danger Zone
Party
Using the Voterfile to Target
EXAMPLE: Bratton Township
• 977 Registered Voters
• 64% Average Turnout (2004, 2008)
• Predicted Turnout Number: 626
• Projected Win Number: 326
PROCESS:
• Sort by Precinct, Party, 2010G, 2008G, 2006G
• Run Counts and Fill-in the Targeting Matrix
• Label Targets by creating a new target column
• Sort by Target and copy into a new sheet
Targeting Matrix Results
WIN NUMBER for BRATTON PRECINCT: 326
Party
2006,
2008, &
2010
2008 &
2010
Only 2010
Only 2008
TOTAL
Democrat
Tier 1
Target
83
Tier 1
Target
14
Tier 1
Target
7
Tier 2
Target
15
119
NonPartisan
Tier 2
Target
78
Tier 2
Target
58
Tier 2
Target
34
Tier 3
Target
147
317
Danger
Zone
Danger
Zone
Danger
Zone
Danger
Zone
0
161
72
41
162
436
Republica
n
TOTAL
From Targets to Walk Lists
PROCESS:
1. Standardize the Address into two columns: Street Number and
Street Name (Excel Functions: Text to Column/Concatenate)
2. Sort by Street Name, Street Number
3. Insert Page Breaks after each Street Name change
4. Hide information not applicable to volunteers
5. Rename Topline
6. Insert Polling Location (lookup on the board of election site)
7. Create Status, Support, Yard Sign, Notes Columns
8. Choose Print Titles and Select Rows to Repeat
9. Choose to Print Page Numbers
10. Choose Landscape
11. Scale the pages to fit on one sheet of paper
12. Preview before printing
From Walk List to Maps
PROCESS:
• Visit http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/geocoder/
• Copy and Paste the Addresses and Click Start Geocoding
• Wait
• In the Results as Text Box, Select All and Copy
• Paste into your workbook
• Text to Column
• Create a new table in Google Documents
• Import the file with the longitude and latitude
• Export the KML file
• Upload into maps.google.com
• Count out households, print maps, and pair with walk sheets
• Provide your volunteers with a brief training on how to read the map,
enter statuses, use the script, and then go win some votes!
A Completed Map
Data Driven Campaigns
The Volunteer Walk is Over – Now What?
•Celebrate your volunteer’s work!
•Collect all walk packets, even those unfinished, from
volunteers
•Enter all information into your Data Tracking Sheet
•Analyze the Data by Sorting by Target and Support,
by Updating your Targeting Matrix
What’s the Data Mean?
Support Tracker
Party
Support
Goal
% to Goal
Democrat
11
119
9.24%
NonPartisan
45
317
14.19%
Total
56
326
(vote goal)
17.17%
Next Steps
More Volunteer Walking!
•For Identification purposes, resort the walk sheet by Status then
Street Name then Street Number
•Rework the previous walk sheet and map process for NH’s
•For Persuasion purposes, resort the walk sheet by Support and
Status
•Rework the previous walk sheet and map process for Maybe’s
and NH’s
•For GOTV Purposes, resort the walk sheet by Support
•Rework the previous walk sheet and map process for Yes’s
Questions?
CandidateProject.org/Academy