Agricultural Outlook Project: 2011-2014
Overview of the Work and the Proposal for
Extension of Work in 2014-2016
Rajesh Chadha
NCAER
Project Supported by
National Food Security Mission, Ministry of Agriculture
November 7, 2014
The context
• The need for monitoring and analysing the emerging food scenario
for India because of the significant dependence of output on the
monsoon rains
• India being a major importer of food commodities we need to analyse
the management of agriculture from a public policy perspective
• The National Food Security Mission (NFSM), Ministry of Agriculture,
commissioned a 3-year study to National Council of Applied Economic
Research (NCAER) in 2011-12
• The study aimed at providing analytical inputs for understanding the
emerging agricultural scenarios both in the short-term and in the
medium-term
• FAO also supported the project with grants for the pilot and first round
of PDA survey undertaken during 2012-13
Implementation
• The NCAER set up a dedicated team to carry out the study
• An advisory committee comprising of Dr Shekhar Shah, DG
(NCAER) as Chair, Dr Ashok Gulati, Prof Ramesh Chand, Prof
Mahendra Dev, Principal Adviser (DAC) and Joint Secretary
(Crops) was constituted. Representatives of FAO and DFID
were special invitees to the committee meetings
• A Technical Support Group comprising of key officers from
different departments of the Government and experts was also
formed to interact with the study team and provide guidance
Activities Accomplished
• Quarterly Agricultural Outlook Reports to integrate the
assessment of the key indicators relating to agriculture with
a focus on food sector including cereals, pulses, fruits &
vegetables, oilseeds, sugarcane and milk – Eight Reports
• Semi-Annual Agricultural Outlook and Scenario Analysis
Reports to provide a medium-term perspective based on the
available information and using suitable economic models
that permit longer term projections – Three Reports
Activities Accomplished (continued)
• Monthly briefings on the issues of relevance to the Outlook
Assessment and prevailing agricultural conditions – 28
Meetings
• Seven Papers on specific topics submitted
• Two PDA-based surveys conducted
• Four workshops held
• Two briefing meetings and one PDA-based survey
presentation to be held in November 2014
International Impact
• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023
• Theme Chapter on “Feeding India: prospects and
challenges in the next decade”
• Department of Agriculture Cooperation, Ministry of
Agriculture sponsored work accomplished by NCAER
mentioned and appreciated in the Foreword, the
Acknowledgements and in the Core Chapter
The Way Forward
• NCAER would like to continue the work done so far both
from the short-term and medium-term perspectives
• Three reports are proposed to be prepared in a year for
the next two years, 2014-2016
• Rabi Outlook Report – December
• Medium-Term Outlook – April
• Kharif Outlook Report - August
The Way Forward
• Briefing meetings to be held thrice a year – after
submission of each of the three Reports
• Two workshops would be organized – one in each of the
two years
• Work on modelling including FAO-COSIMO model and
NCAER-ISEC econometric models to be funded by FAO
• Outputs from these technical tools would feed into the
analysis to be reported in the three reports
Budget
We would present a revised detailed proposal
as per discussion held today along with the
budgetary requirements
Thank You