“Three Cities” within Toronto
and TDSB Achievement Patterns
Robert S. Brown
Research and Information Services/Organizational Development
Toronto District School Board
May 25 2010
“Three Cities” within Toronto and TDSB
Achievement Patterns
 The Three Cities: What they are, geography, 1A/B, 3A-D,
connection to LOI.
 Achievement in 2008-9 according to City subgroups:
Grade 3 EQAO Math, Grade 6 EQAO Math, Grade 9
cohort Science, Grade 9 cohort Program of Study, OSSLT,
Post-secondary Confirmations
 Geographical pattern of Grade 6 EQAO Math, 2008-9
 Summary
1. The Three Cities:
 What they are, geography, 1A/B, 3A-D, connection to LOI
How are the 3 Cities Calculated?
Change in Average Individual Income, City of
Toronto, 1970 to 2000:
 City 1 had an increase of 20% or more in average
individual income, 1970- 2000.
 City 2 had an increase or decrease of less than 20%
 City 3 had a decrease of 20% or more.
City 1 – Two Categories
 City #1-A are "elite" census tracts that have always
been above average individual income and the income
ratio has gone up 20% or more 1970-2005.
 City #1-B are census tracts that were historically
below average income and have gentrified, the
income ratio has gone up 20% or more 1970-2005.
City 3: Four Categories
• City #3-A = Youngest suburbs, more home owners,
largest families, very high visible minority percentage
particularly Chinese.
• City #3-B = Older suburbs, more seniors, more White
people than 3-A.
• City #3-C = Renters in apartment towers, recent
immigrant reception areas particularly South Asians.
• City #3-D = Lowest incomes, higher Black population,
most social housing, higher proportion of single parents.
Why are 48 of 119 (40%) of the highest-needs
elementary schools in the TDSB in either City
1 or 2?
 School is just outside CT of high change (e.g. Parkdale,
Queen Victoria, Regent Park).
 Area was poor in 1970 and continued to be as poor in 2000.
 Census Tract covers very diverse area (e.g. the CT in which
Winchester is located, which is 1B).
 With multiple boundaries, 6-8 or 7-8 students attend from
outside CT (e.g. students from St. Jamestown CT attending
Winchester in 7-8).
 Average income is not as strong an indicator of student
achievement compared to other variables.
 Note that other schools (e.g. Market Lane) are not in 3 city
list because of historical changes over time (development of
harbour area).
2. Achievement in 2008-9 according to City
subgroups
City of Toronto: Three Cities
EQAO Grade 3 Mathematics Results (% Levels 3 & 4)
100%
90%
Proportion of Students
80%
70%
69%
68%
60%
53%
56%
56%
2A
2B
62%
59%
64%
54%
50%
40%
30%
1A
1B
2C
3A
3B
3C
20%
10%
0%
City 1
City 2
City 3
3D
City of Toronto: Three Cities
EQAO Grade 6 Mathematics Results (% Levels 3 & 4)
100%
90%
82%
75%
Proportion of Students
80%
75%
68%
70%
66%
67%
64%
62%
56%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1A
1B
2A
2B
2C
3A
3B
3C
20%
10%
City 1
0%
City 2
City 3
3D
City of Toronto: Three Cities
Grade 9 Cohort Science Results (Levels 3 & 4), 2008-09
100%
90%
Proportion of Students
80%
70%
60%
64%
59%
57%
53%
54%
53%
51%
53%
50%
43%
40%
30%
1A
1B
2A
2B
2C
3A
3B
3C
20%
10%
City 1
0%
City 2
City 3
3D
City of Toronto: Three Cities
Grade 9-10 Academic Program, 2008-09
100%
92%
90%
80%
79%
Proportion of Students
80%
73%
72%
75%
69%
70%
65%
58%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1A
1B
2A
2B
2C
3A
3B
20%
10%
City 1
0%
City 2
City 3
3C
3D
City of Toronto: Three Cities
OSSLT Results: First-time Eligible Students, 2008-09
100%
92%
90%
81%
76%
Proportion of Students
80%
74%
77%
73%
69%
70%
63%
60%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1A
1B
2A
2B
2C
3A
3B
3C
20%
10%
City 1
0%
City 2
City 3
3D
City of Toronto: Three Cities
University Confirmations in Ontario 2008-09
100%
90%
Proportion of Students
80%
70%
60%
53%
49%
50%
40%
34%
36%
33%
34%
33%
34%
25%
30%
20%
1A
1B
2A
2B
2C
3A
3B
3C
10%
City 1
0%
City 2
City 3
3D
City of Toronto: Three Cities
Post-secondary Confirmations in Ontario 2008-09
100%
90%
34%
Proportion of Students
80%
36%
33%
33%
34%
25%
34%
49%
53%
9%
70%
5%
60%
15%
50%
6%
12%
6%
7%
9%
7%
9%
9%
10%
9%
48%
50%
9%
7%
5%
9%
40%
18%
30%
47%
20%
10%
47%
52%
50%
57%
35%
25%
0%
City 1A City 1B City 2A City 2B City 2C City 3A City 3B City 3C City 3D
Did not Apply
Apply to Post-secondary
Confirm College
Confirm University
Summary
In general, highest achievement is seen in 1A, but 3A
has very high achievement:

1B has achievement sometimes higher, sometimes lower,
sometimes the same as 3A, but always lower than 1A.

3D has consistently the lowest achievement.

2, and 3B-C have achievement patterns between 1A-3A
and 3D.
3.Geographical Patterns of Achievement 2008-09
Summary
In general, highest achievement is seen in 1A, but 3A
has very high achievement:

1B has achievement sometimes higher, sometimes lower,
sometimes the same as 3A, but always lower than 1A.

3D has consistently the lowest achievement.

2, and 3B-C have achievement patterns between 1A-3A
and 3D.
Implications:
 Average income is an important income variable but not
the complete picture (median income, LICO/LIM, social
assistance are others).
 Income is an important factor of socio-economic status but
is not the complete picture (education, parental status are
other variables) See example of 3A.
 Change over time is an important part of the picture but not
the complete picture (see Guildwood as example of high
income without high change, parts of south Toronto as
examples of low income without change.
Implications (Continued)

Census tracts are an excellent way to show geographic
patterns in Toronto (Three City Study, Priority
Neighbourhoods) but in many cases the connections of
schools to census tracts does not work (e.g. Queen Victoria).
This is because 1) many students do not live in the CT of the
school and 2) CT, like Toronto in general, often have huge
within-geography ranges (e.g. extremely poor and extremely
rich in the same CT). The Dissemination Area (DA) is much
better at capturing these differences but too detailed for
useful geographical patterns.

We should be very cautious in applying CT patterns to all
schools (see the Priority Neighbourhoods as an example).
Implications (Continued)

The Three City evaluation shows great insight into many
of the geographical patterns of TDSB achievement. In
particular, the gap between the 'elite' areas of increasingly
high income in 1A, and the low income areas of 3D, have
profound implications. There have already been
noticeable changes in a few areas between the census
years 2001 and 2006 (e.g. the CT's drawing students to
Thomas Wells and Brookbanks schools).

It would be important for an update of the Three City
process with the 2011 Census, to show 40 rather than 30
years of change over time.
“Three Cities” within Toronto
and TDSB Achievement Patterns
Robert S. Brown
Research and Information Services/Organizational Development
Toronto District School Board
May 25 2010
Thank You