SCHOOL NURSING 2014/15 NWL planned commissioning position: maintain commissions at 14 2014/15 pan-London planned commissioning position: maintain commissions at 51 Commissioning decisions – summary for 2014/15 HENWL Pan-London As in investment plans (split based on workforce numbers) 14 51 Recommended Commissions 14/15 14 51 Change 13/14 – 14/15 0% 0% LETB area Commissions 13/14 2013 school nursing workforce forecast (London LETBs) 550 Pan-London school nursing commissions 60 50 500 40 450 37 30 50 400 50 20 350 10 14 0 300 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Demand A 25.0% oversupply is predicted in 2018/19. 2016/17 Supply 2017/18 2018/19 2012/13 2013/14 Total NWL Rest of London 2014/15 North West London – School Nursing NWL school nursing supply and demand 2013 210 200 190 A 16.5% oversupply is predicted in 2018/19. 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 2013/14 2014/15 Demand Factors leading to final demand and supply figures The senior stakeholder group accepted the assumptions in the workforce modelling tool. 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Supply Rationale for decision Indications are that demand for the school nursing workforce is decreasing, and supply is increasing, leading to a small, but increasing oversupply. In 2012/13, target commissions were at 60 (although this was not fully recruited to), an increase of 18% on the 2011/12. The education provider market is currently operating below its stated minimum capacity. The school nursing workforce needs to be better understood, in terms of the division between qualified school nurses and registered nurses, and also employment in local authorities. The data suggests that a decrease in commissions may be needed in future. Commissions should be maintained in 2014/15 whilst the employment market for school nursing is further explored. Implementation of an annual flu immunisation programme for all school age children will also increase demand for school nurses. HENWL are working with Public Health England to support and inform workforce plans accordingly.