Microsoft PowerPoint - Niemeyer_climateChange

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Conference:
2024 Prospects for
EU Agricultural Markets
What impacts from climate
change on agriculture?
Stefan Niemeyer (JRC-IES)
Andrej Ceglar, Fabien Ramos
Brussels,
5 December 2014
Joint Research Centre &
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
IPCC AR5
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published in 2013/14
•
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
Structure:
•
Observations – what has happened / is happening?
•
Projections – future climate scenarios
•
Impacts – observed and projected
•
Adaptation – reduce impacts, vulnerability,
adaptation capacity
•
Mitigation – limit / reduce projected changes
http://www.ipcc.ch/
2
Observations
IPCC AR5, 2014
3
Observations
IPCC AR5, 2014
4
Observations
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, NOx have increased to
levels unprecedented in at least the last 800’000 years.
IPCC AR5, 2014
5
Observations
Global, IPCC
• Virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the
mid-20th century (> 99% probability)
• Total increase between the periods 1850-1900 and 2003-2012 is
+0.78 ˚C [0.72-0.85]
• In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, there is a substantial
decadal and inter-annual variability in global mean surface
temperature.
• Very likely that the number of cold days has decreased and the
number of warm days has increased on the global scale (> 90%)
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Observations
Europe, IPCC
• Decadal average land surface temperature for 2002-2011 is 1.3 ˚C
above the average of 1850-1899.
• Warming has been strongest over Scandinavia in winter, the Iberian
Peninsula warmed mostly in summer.
• Since 1950, high-temperature extremes have become more
frequent, while low-temperature extremes less frequent.
• Likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts
of Europe (> 66% probability).
• Since 1950, annual precipitation has increased in Northern Europe
and decreased in parts of Southern Europe.
• Frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation events has likely
increased in Europe (> 66% probability).
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Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Modelling
Europe, JRC
1983-2013
1983-2013
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Observations
Europe, JRC
JRC 2014, MARS meteorological database
Attribution
IPCC AR5, 2014
16
Attribution
IPCC AR5, 2014
17
Future Climate
• Emission scenarios of IPCC AR3,4 (A1, A1B, B2, …), now:
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5
 Defined according to the radiative forcing they create
• Answer to the question:
Which level of anthropogenic CO2 emissions required to achieve a
given radiative forcing by 2100?
… which translates into a respective surface temperature rise
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Future Climate
RCPs:
2.6: very low greenhouse gas concentration levels, substantially
reduced greenhouse gas emissions over time. Peak in radiative
forcing at ~3 W/m2 around mid-century and returning to
2.6W/m2 by 2100
4.5: total radiative forcing stabilized before 2100 at ~4.5 W/m2 by
employment of a range of technologies and strategies for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
6.0: stabilization ~6 W/m2 after 2100 without overshoot by
employment of a range of technologies and strategies for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
8.5: increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time leading to high
greenhouse gas concentration levels; rising radiative forcing
pathway leading to ~8.5 W/m2 in 2100.
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Future Climate
IPCC AR5, 2014
20
Future Climate
IPCC AR5, 2014
21
Future Climate
Global, IPCC
Projected changes for global mean surface air temperature and
global mean sea level, relative to the period 1986-2005
IPCC AR5, 2014
22
Future Climate
Europe, JRC
Weather scenarios –
Air Temperature
23
Future Climate
Europe, JRC
Weather scenarios –
Precipitation
24
Impacts agriculture
Global, IPCC
• Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been
more common than positive impacts (high confidence).
• For the major crops (wheat, rice, maize) [..] climate change
without adaptation is projected to negatively impact production
for local temperature increases of 2 ºC or more [..], although
individual locations may benefit (medium confidence).
• After 2050 the risk of more severe yield impacts increases.
• All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate
change, including food access, utilization, and price stability (high
confidence).
• For most economic sectors, the impacts of drivers such as
changes in population, age structure, income, technology, relative
prices, lifestyle, regulation, and governance are projected to be
large relative to the impacts of climate change (medium
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confidence).
Impacts agriculture
Global, observed
IPCC AR5, 2014
Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate changes on yields over
1960-2013 for four major crops in temperate and tropical regions, with the
number of data points analyzed.
26
Impacts Agriculture
Global, projected
Projected changes in crop yields.
1090 data points from 42 studies, all regions, all scenarios, with and
without adaptation.
IPCC AR5, 2014
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Agriculture, Global
Adaptation
IPCC AR5, 2014
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Impacts Agriculture
Europe, projected
JRC 2013, crop model simulations
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Agriculture, Europe
Adaptation
JRC 2013, crop model simulations
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Conclusions
• Climate change is being observed nowadays.
• Global patterns of changing weather well understood.
• Regional and local realization masked by high natural variability.
• Changes in relevant agro-meteorological parameters observed.
• Strong changes in climate expected beyond 2050, 2100
• Different outcome depending on scenario chosen
• Time horizon of 2024 / 2030 less sensitive to scenario choice
• Impacts on agricultural production depending on region and crop.
• Northern Europe will benefit from warmer temperatures, southern
Europe will suffer, if precipitation will be reduced.
• Potential for adaptation at farm level considerable for 2030 horizon.
• Overview level covered, context-specific, regional studies required.
… thank you!
[email protected]
[email protected]
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