The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe The Central and East European states joined the EU in 2004 What impact has this had on the transformation of their welfare systems? Have they caught up with the welfare systems of the old countries? The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe There is no such thing as Eastern Europe, i.e.: All the New Europe countries are different The New Europe has not followed the patterns of the old Cohesion countries (Greece, Spain) The differences in social welfare between Old Europe and New Europe have increased over the past 10 years The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe Developments in three clusters: 1. Neoliberal welfare states: the Baltic states and Slovakia 2. „Dual regimes“: Hungary, Poland 3. „Social corporativist regimes“: Slovenia, Czech Republic The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia Radical economic reforms resulting in minimal states, low welfare spending, low taxes, deregulated labour markets, flat tax rate (Latvia lowest, 15 per cent). In 2004, Slovakia introduced a flat rate at 19 per cent, later also Czech Republic The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia Record low-tax revenue to GDP ratio in the EU 27: The EU average: 41,2 per cent of GDP collected by tax, Slovakia: 29,5 per cent, Lithuania: 30 per cent, Latvia 30,4 per cent, Estonia 31,1 per cent The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia Small governments: Slovakia: government expenditure fell from 65 per cent of GDP in 1997 to 37 per cent of gdp in 2006 The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia Low union membership, weak collective bargaining Huge share of working poor Huge social inclusion needs Relative poverty rates increased between 2000-2007 The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia The Baltic states have the lowest life expectancy in the EU 27 Very high old age poverty High income inequalities High level of housing deprivation Largest prison population in the EU The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia Radical economic reforms coupled with minimal social commitments, poor welfare performance Economic agenda focused on competitiveness High social costs The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 1. Neoliberal regimes: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, later Slovakia Neoliberal states became highly vulnerable to the post 2008 economic crisis The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Poland, Hungary finance „big governments“, spending 42,4 and 50,1 per cent of GDP through their governments But both Poland and Hungary, in regional competition, reduced corporate taxes to 19 and 16 per cent, while personal taxes are 38 and 40 per cent Tax concessions for foreign investors The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Hungary's fiscal policy has been expansionary, rising fiscal indebtedness The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Poland: incongruous capitalist systém: Heavily regulated products market, large public sector, deregulated labour market, strong protectionism and high level of openness of the Polish economy The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Poland: very high poverty, rising inequality, highest rate of the working poor Total absence of an active employment policy Passive labour markets are weak Poland's conservative welfare state has not provided an adequate amount of social protection and poverty alleviation The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Hungary: Welfare state slightly expanded in 19982007 Welfare state oriented towards pensioners High child poverty Similar structural problems to Poland The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Poland and Hungary: two of the lowest average ages for withdrawal from labour market in the EU Early retirement schemes widely available The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 2. „Dual regimes“: Poland, Hungary Social provision remains fragmented Welfare policies locked within a strong neoliberal political agenda Stop-and-go-attitude to regime formation The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 3. The Czech Republic and Slovenia: The Corporativist Regime Until 2010, Slovenia spent 23 % of its GDP on social protection, Czech Rep. spent 19% of its GDP on social protection Relatively high employment rates in both countries until 2010 The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 3. The Czech Republic and Slovenia: The Corporativist Regime Czech and Slovene social protection was always highly valued The European social model is compatible with indigenous cultural and social history in these two countries The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 3. The Czech Republic and Slovenia: The Corporativist Regime Poverty rates and social inequalities in Slovenia and the Czech Republic are lower than in the EU 27 Life expectancy has dramatically improved in Slovenia recently The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe 3. The Czech Republic and Slovenia: The Corporativist Regime Strong performance in Slovenia, Czech Republic, by the welfare system in reducing poverty. Equivalent to Scandinavian states. Czech Republic was on top of EU 27 in reducing poverty rates The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe Impact of the financial and economic crisis since 2008 Has hit the New Europe countries hard, particularly those with low social spending Baltic states: one of the harshest recessions in Europe. Double-digit fall of GDP High old age poverty, poor access to health care Baltic states: sharp downturn in economic income for most groups The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe Hungary: crisis less severe than in the Baltics. An IMF loan of US$ 16 billion Poland: large recovery package Slovenia and the Czech Republic: relatively well placed to protect the most vulnerable The World of Work and Social Welfare in the New Europe Neoliberal model has prevailed in countries with little interest representation Welfare institutions were adjusted, but survived in countries accountable to electoral constraints. Particularly in Slovenia. The European social model of Slovenia, Czech Republic, currently also under threat