economic growth, unemployment and poverty in nigeria

John Sylvester AFAHA1 and Joseph Ayoola
of Economics, College of Social and
Management Sciences, Caleb University, Imota, Lagos,
[email protected], [email protected]
A Paper Presented at the 6th NAEE/IAEE Conference held at Sheraton Hotel,
Ikeja, Lagos, Nigeria.
Date: 22-23 April, 2013
The Problem
Research objectives
The Review of Relevant Literature
Effects of the Recent Climate Change Trend on
Economic Growth in Nigeria
Global Climate Change: Recent Impacts on Nigeria
Global Climate Change: Future Trends in Nigeria
Pollution Policies in Nigeria and its Impacts on
Adaptation and Mitigation
Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
• The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, 2012) cites overwhelming evidence that human
actions are contributing to climate change, with a wide range of
implications for human health.
• Some of the impacts are direct, including mortality and morbidity
resulting from more intense weather events, heat waves, and
• Other impacts arise indirectly from mechanisms such as climate's
effects on agricultural production and water resources-linked to
major killers such as malnutrition and diarrhoea
• Although IPCC considered population, along with economic growth
and technological change, as one of the root causes of greenhouse
gas emissions, the effect of pollution on climate change is still
under debate.
THE PROBLEM (cont’d)
• While policy debates around climate change engender scholarly
discussions on a number of factors, pollution is rarely mentioned.
• Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the
mechanisms and complexity of pollution and climate interactions.
• In addition to the growth or increase in the amount of pollution emission,
research (Samuel and Richard, 2005, Omojolaibi, 2010) show that rapid
increase in pollution (i.e. through rapid industrialization) generate
substantial effects on the climate system.
• Pollution on the one hand is mostly attributed to dangerous fumes
emitted from industries, electricity generating sets and in automobiles.
• This has an important role to play in the effort to avert the dangerous
effects of climate change because it heavily depends on fossil fuels.
THE PROBLEM (cont’d)
• No proper assessment has been carried out to establish the level and impact
of air pollution from the automobiles.
Nigeria does not have an air quality management system and the few
existing data on air/land pollution has been obtained through
measurements done on an ad hoc basis.
• Nigeria, being a developing country is very prone to the adverse effects of
climate change because of its low capacity to adopt, lack of technology and
institutional and financial capacities.
• Controlling pollution from the transport sector is vital to improving the
quality of the air and protecting public health.
• Hence, this paper attempts to answer the following questions: how does the
recent climate change trend affect economic growth in Nigeria? and how
pollution policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and
Research objectives
• The overall objective of this paper is to examine
the impact of climate change and pollution on
economic growth in Nigeria.
• Specifically, the study seeks to:
• (i) Assess the impact of the recent climate
change trends on economic growth in Nigeria.
• (ii) Find out how pollution policies could
contribute to climate change mitigation and
adaptation in Nigeria
• The literature is reviewed according to issues:
Pollution and Climate change
Niger delta region Uyigue and Agho 2007, Etuonovbe 2008 etc)
(some studies focus on
Climate change and Economic growth
studies focus on agric, Adams et al 1990, Guiteras 2007 , others on Ocean, IPCC 2007 etc)
Facts: temp on mortality Currerio et al 2002, temp on crime, Field 1992, Jacob et al 2007, drough on
conflict, Miguel et al 2004) all of which have direct and indirect effects) Integrated Assessment Models
Effects of the Recent Climate Change Trend on
Economic Growth in Nigeria.
Nigeria is experiencing adverse climate conditions
with adverse impacts on the welfare of millions of its
Persistent droughts and flooding, off season rains
and dry spells have sent growing seasons out of
orbit, in a country dependent on a rain fed
Alarm bells are ringing with lakes drying up and a
reduction in river flow in the arid and semi-arid
region of the country.
The result is fewer water supplies for use in
agriculture, hydro power generation and other uses.
Effects (cont’d)
The social implications of climate change for Nigeria are multidimensional.
A projection by Awosika et al in Medugu (2009) suggests that Nigeria will
experience massive “environmental refugee” migration.
For a 1million rise, more than 3 million people are at risk, based on the
present population.
The estimated number of people that would be displaced ranges from 740,000
for a 0.2 million rise to 3.7 million for a 1million rise and 10 million for a
2million rise.
The most vulnerable is the coastal region of the country where about 20
million people inhabit.
Similarly, most of the economic activities that form the backbone of the
nation’s economy are located within the coastal zone.
In Africa and Nigeria in particular, climate change impact poses great danger of
desertification, damage to infrastructure, sea level rise, flooding and water
salinity with serious implications to the well-being of the people.
Figure 1: Flooding of a city after a heavy
Table 1: Global Climate Change: Recent Impacts on Nigeria
Likelihood of the occurrence between 2008-2012
Cold days, cold nights and frost less frequent over
It occurred
land areas
More frequent hot days and nights
It occurred
Heat waves more frequent over most land areas
It occurred
Increased incidence of extreme high sea level
It occurred
Global area affected by drought has increased
It occurred in some regions
(since 1970s)
Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in
North Atlantic
It occurred in some regions
Table 2: Global Climate Change: Future Trends in Nigeria
Likelihood of Occurrence in 2013 and beyond
Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat waves
Very likely to occur
and heavy precipitation
Increase in tropical cyclone intensity
Likely to occur
Precipitation increases in high latitudes
Very likely to occur
Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions
Very likely to occur
Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas
High confidence
Pollution/Climate Change Policies in Nigeria and its
Impacts on Adaptation and Mitigation
• National Environmental Standards and Regulations
Enforcement Agency (NESREA) Act 57, 2007/FEPA.
• Climate Change Bill in tune will the issues of the
Kyoto Protocol
• Policies:
• Water:- National water policies and integrated water
resources management and water related hazards
• Agriculture:- R&D policies; institutional reform; land
tenure and land reform; training
• Energy:- National energy policies, regulations,
and fiscal and financial incentives to
encourage use of alternative sources;
incorporating climate change in design
• Human Health:- Public health policies that
recognise climate risk; strengthened health
services; regional and international
Policies Cont’d
• taxes or carbon charges on fossil fuels
• Financial incentives and regulations for
improved land management; maintaining soil
carbon content; efficient use of fertilisers and
• Mandatory fuel economy; biofuel blending
and CO2 standards for road transport
Adaptation and Mitigation Options/strategy i.e
Policies required to reduce vulnerability to climate
• Sector – Water: Expanded rainwater
harvesting; water storage and conservation
techniques; water re-use; desalination; wateruse and irrigation efficiency.
• Agriculture: Adjustment of planting dates and
crop variety; crop relocation; improved land
management, e.g. erosion control and soil
protection through tree planting
• Energy: Strengthening of overhead
transmission and distribution infrastructure;
underground cabling for utilities; energy
efficiency; use of renewable sources; reduced
dependence on single sources of energy
• Human Health: Heat-health action plans;
emergency medical services; improved
climate-sensitive disease surveillance and
control; safe water and improved sanitation
(Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
Climate Change 2007)
Mitigation Technologies and Practices.
• Agriculture: Improved crop and grazing
land management to increase soil carbon
• Energy: Improved supply and distribution
efficiency; fuel switching from coal to
gas; nuclear power; renewable heat and
power (hydropower, solar, wind,
geothermal and bioenergy);
• Transport: More fuel-efficient vehicles;
hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel vehicles;
biofuels; modal shifts from road
transport to rail and public transport
systems; non-motorised transport
(cycling, walking); land-use and transport
planning; second generation biofuels;
higher efficiency aircraft; advanced
electric and hybrid vehicles with more
powerful and reliable batteries
• The effects of climate change and pollution on
economic growth in Nigeria is examined in this
• The influence of recent climate change trends on
Nigeria economy is also x-rayed.
• Two major pollution/climate change policies in
Nigeria and how they contributed to mitigation
and adaptation policies were also articulated.
• It was established in the study that climate
change is an unprecedented threat to major
activities in Nigeria, for instance, agricultural
practices in Nigeria.
• Agricultural practices in the country is
predominantly rain-fed and therefore
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change.
• It was also observed that climate change
potentially contribute to increased incidence
of flooding in Nigeria.
• Overall, climate change could make it
more difficult to grow crops, raise
animals, and catch fish in the same ways
and same places as we have done in the
past. The effects of climate change also
need to be considered along with other
evolving factors that affect agricultural
production, such as changes in farming
practices and technology.
Policy Recommendations
• There should be regulation dealing specifically with
the legal nature of carbon emission(pollution) to
determine how the creation and transaction of carbon
credits will be treated in a specific transaction and the
full impact of climate change on the lives of Nigerians.
• it is also of great importance and urgency that
Government should undertake an active role in
tackling climate change issues considering the hazards
it poses on our social and economic well-being.
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