Oklahoma Population Projections
Through 2075
Presented by:
Steve Barker
Policy, Research and Economic Analysis
Today’s Topics of Discussion




Common projection methodology
Oklahoma’s population trends
Projections for Tulsa MSA counties
Questions and answers
Standard Projection Formula
State level projections start with 2010 Decennial Census counts and follow
forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau:
-APopulation
in the
current
year
-EPopulation
projection
for the
year
+
+
-BBirths
in the
current
year
-FBirths
in the
next
year*
-
-
-CDeaths
in the
current
year
-GDeaths
in the
next
year
+
+
-DNet
migration
-HNet
migration
=
=
-EPopulation
projection for
the next year
-IPopulation
projection for
the next year
-F- *Based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age
Who is included in projections? Everybody!
• All civilian residents living within the state
• US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma
• Prisoners, including out of state prisoners held at
private prisons located within the state
Projection of births and deaths
Birth and death rates assumed to remain constant.
Births
Deaths
Birth rates generally declining across
the United States and in Oklahoma
Health care technology improving
Hispanic population increasing
Hispanic population has higher birth
rate
As percentage of Hispanics increases,
rate of decline in the state’s overall
birth rate expected to slow, stall or
reverse
Oklahoma’s smoking reduction
programs and diabetes awareness
Oklahoma is among the youngest
states in the nation
Obesity epidemic – two thirds of state
may be obese by 2030
Oklahoma’s net migration history
• 1970 to 1983: Oklahoma boomed
– Peak annual growth of 3.6% in
1982
– Double digit annual percentage
growth in some less populated
counties
• And then came the oil bust…
• 1987: state’s annual population
growth rate dropped to -1.3%.
Net migration: what’s the norm?
• 1960 to 2011: Oklahoma’s population gain due to net
migration averaged around 10,000 people annually
– Swings from +80,500 in 1982 to -61,000 in 1987
• 1990 to today: Oklahoma’s average annual net
migration gain just under 15,000
County projections handled differently
• For 64 counties, used straight linear regression
trendline formulas
– Based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011
• For 13 counties, all in western Oklahoma, straight
linear regression formulas gave unrealistic results
– Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer,
Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman,
Washita and Woods
• For these 13 counties, a curved, or power, trendline
was judged to be a better fit
Matching up two methodologies
• Census Bureau population estimates based on birth,
death and migration data
• They have situations where sum of parts doesn’t
equal the expected whole
• They use a balancing figure that effectively serves as
a “margin of error”
• This report used similar approach
• Between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment
averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population.
Oklahoma’s population trends
OK Population Concentration: 1910
OK Population Concentration: 2010
OK Population: Peak Decades
Population Growth: 1960 to 2010
Totals
Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs
Year Over Year
Population Growth: 1960 to 2010
Source: US Census Bureau’s Decennial Census and Population Estimates Programs
Oklahoma: Statewide Population
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts
5,560,007
6,000,000
5,000,000
3,751,351
4,000,000
3,450,654
3,145,585
3,025,290
2,559,229
2,328,284
3,000,000
2,396,0402,336,434
2,233,351
2,028,283
2,000,000
1,657,155
1,000,000
Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Oklahoma Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Projections by Age
Age 00 to 04
Age 05 to 09
Age 10 to 14
Age 15 to 19
Age 20 to 24
Age 25 to 29
Age 30 to 34
Age 35 to 39
Age 40 to 44
Age 45 to 49
Age 50 to 54
Age 55 to 59
Age 60 to 64
Age 65 to 69
Age 70 to 74
Age 75 to 79
Age 80 to 84
Age 85+
Total Population
Statewide population projections by age group
2010
2075
Population
As %
Projected Population
264,126
7.0%
347,853
259,336
6.9%
349,177
253,664
6.8%
350,455
264,484
7.1%
350,949
269,242
7.2%
350,816
265,737
7.1%
350,657
241,018
6.4%
350,293
232,742
6.2%
349,324
228,195
6.1%
347,057
261,242
7.0%
342,806
264,369
7.0%
335,832
235,969
6.3%
325,586
204,513
5.5%
310,576
159,392
4.2%
289,062
121,075
3.2%
258,716
95,051
2.5%
217,121
69,284
1.8%
166,952
61,912
1.7%
166,777
3,751,351
100.0%
5,560,007
As %
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
6.2%
6.2%
6.0%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
4.7%
3.9%
3.0%
3.0%
100.0%
Projections for Tulsa MSA counties
Creek County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
120,000
109,751
100,000
80,000
67,367
62,480 64,115
60,000
69,967
59,016 60,915
55,503
43,143
45,532
40,495
40,000
26,223
20,000
Creek County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Creek Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Creek Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Okmulgee County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
60,000
55,072
56,558
50,101
50,000
44,406
44,561
36,945 35,358
40,000
39,169
36,490
39,685
40,069
30,000
21,115
20,000
10,000
Okmulgee County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Okmulgee Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Okmulgee Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Osage County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
80,000
71,916
60,000
47,472
47,334
44,437
41,645
41,502
40,000
20,000
36,536
39,327
33,071 32,441 29,750
20,101
Osage County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Osage Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Osage Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Pawnee County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
30000
24,929
25000
19,126 19,882
20000
16,612 16,577
17,395
17,332
15,575
15,310
15000
13,616
11,338
10,884
10000
5000
Pawnee County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Pawnee Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Pawnee Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Rogers County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
200,000
173,122
160,000
120,000
86,905
70,641
80,000
55,170
46,436
28,425
40,000
21,078
18,956
17,736
17,605
19,532 20,614
Rogers County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Rogers Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Rogers Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Tulsa County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
1,000,000
934,215
800,000
603,403
563,299
600,000
503,341
470,593
401,663
346,038
400,000
251,686
193,363
187,574
200,000
109,023
34,995
Tulsa County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Tulsa Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Tulsa Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Wagoner County
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
150,000
144,991
125,000
100,000
73,085
75,000
57,491
41,801
50,000
47,883
22,086
22,428 21,642
22,163
21,371
16,741 15,673
25,000
Wagoner County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Wagoner Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Wagoner Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Tulsa 7 County MSA
(Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner)
2012 to 2075 Forecast
Based on Linear Trend From 1960 to 2011
1,600,000
1,503,330
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
937,478
711,652
800,000
761,019
859,532
574,229
503,090
600,000
416,847
321,213
400,000
422,350
400,584
200,000 159,588
Tulsa County MSA County Annual Estimates 1960-2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division)
Tulsa County MSA Forecast 2012-2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce)
Tulsa County MSA Decennial Census 1910-2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census)
Linear Trendline
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
0
Population Rankings 2012-2075
County
Population Rank 2012
Population Rank 2075
Creek
11
10
Okmulgee
27
29
Osage
16
17
Pawnee
42
41
Rogers
6
5
Tulsa
2
2
Wagoner
8
7
With all that said, predicting the future is a bit
like this…
So wish me luck!
For more information:
www.okcommerce.gov/data
Email: steve_barker@okcommerce.gov
Twitter: @okdatacenter