KINEROS (KINematic runoff
and EROSion model)
Michael Schaffner
Senior Service Hydrologist
NOAA National Weather Service
WFO Binghamton, NY
Eastern Region Flash
Flood Conference
June 4, 2010
National Weather Service (NWS)
forecasting for small fast responding
basins
• Forecasting for large basins (i.e. mainstem rivers)
has been taking place for decades.
• Forecasting for small basins is more recent and is
techniques are still being developed.
What are current NWS methods of
providing site specific/basin specific
information in flash flood warnings?
• Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Program
(FFMP)
• Site Specific rainfall-runoff models
• Headwater Guidance
• Flash Flood Guidance
FFMP vs. Site Specific Model
• This allows the forecaster
to pinpoint (i.e. provide
site specific information)
which basins are receiving
the heaviest rainfall.
• Does not allow the
forecaster in most cases
to determine the timing
and magnitude of an
event.
Available Site Specific Models
• Antecedent
Precipitation Index
(API) model
• One-hour time steps
• Hourly Multi Sensor
Precipitation Estimator
(MPE) input
• Manual hourly
Quantitative Precipitation
Forecast (QPF) input
Output from the Site Specific Model
The KINEROS Model: A next
generation site specific model
• Is a distributed model.
• Current modeling within the NWS is generally
lumped modeling. Lumped models consider the
watershed as a whole.
• Distributed models take into account spatial
variation in:
–
–
–
–
Drainage/channel network
Precipitation
Land use
Soil type
Schematic View
Plan View
Composed of a cascade of
overland flow planes and
open channel elements.
Above image from: http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/kineros/
Starting up the model
• Select initial flow rate
• Select initial soil moisture state (very dry, dry, wet,
or very wet)
• Select date and time of simulation start
• Select Z-R Relationship
KINEROS Graphical User
Interface (GUI)
Test Basins
Both gauged and
ungaged watersheds
were tested.
4 gauged and 3
ungauged
KINEROS modeled
points in the upper
Delaware River
Basin are shown.
Drainage area
from 4 square
miles to 241
square miles.
Platte Kill near Dunraven, NY
• 35 square miles.
• Typical fast responding
small stream of the
Catskill Mountains of
New York State.
Typical Platte Kill Hydrographs
produced by KINEROS
Platte Kill near Dunraven
Platte Kill near Dunraven
700
800
500
400
Gage
300
Simulation
200
100
0
8/28/2006
19:12
8/29/2006
00:00
8/29/2006
04:48
8/29/2006
09:36
Date and Time
8/29/2006
14:24
8/29/2006
19:12
Discharge (cfs)
Discharge (cfs)
600
700
600
500
Gage
400
Simulation
300
200
100
0
3/7/2 3/7/2 3/7/2 3/7/2 3/8/2 3/8/2 3/8/2 3/8/2 3/8/2 3/8/2 3/8/2
008
008
008
008
008
008
008
008
008
008
008
14:24 16:48 19:12 21:36 00:00 02:24 04:48 07:12 09:36 12:00 14:24
8/30/2006
00:00
Date and Time
Platte Kill near Dunraven
Platte Kill near Dunraven
1600
1200
1400
1000
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
6/26/20 6/26/20 6/26/20 6/26/20 6/26/20 6/26/20 6/26/20
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
07:12
09:36
12:00
14:24
16:48
19:12
21:36
Date and Time
Gage
Simulation
Discharge (cfs)
Discharge (cfs)
1800
800
Gage
600
Simulation
400
200
0
3/8/2008 3/8/2008 3/8/2008 3/8/2008 3/8/2008 3/9/2008 3/9/2008 3/9/2008
12:00
14:24
16:48
19:12
21:36
00:00
02:24
04:48
Date and Time
Beaver Kill near Cooks Falls, NY
• 241 square miles.
• One of our most challenging
river forecast points due to its
fast response time.
Lead Time: Beaver Kill near Cook Falls, NY
241 square mile fast responding headwater point.
KINEROS can provide lead
time of almost 3 hours on the
flood crest vs. minimal lead
time when compared to the
typical flood warning issued.
Further lead time is possible
when QPF is added.
USGS web cam image:
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/rt/pub/01420500.htm
Ungaged Basins
• Represent an unmet need in
forecasting within the NWS.
• Data can be collected on small
basins using indirect discharge
methods.
• Timing of onset of flooding and
peak flooding can be noted.
Callicoon Creek
at Jeffersonville,
NY
USGS stream gage
located
downstream from
Jeffersonville at
Callicoon.
May not be
representative of
flooding further
upstream along the
East Branch at
Jeffersonville.
Callicoon Creek at
Jeffersonville Watershed
in KINEROS
Event Date
Description
June 28, 2006
Record flood
July 29, 2009
Minor-Moderate
July 31, 2009
Minor-Moderate
August 2, 2009
¼ Bankfull
August 9, 2009
½ Bankfull
August 22, 2009
½ Bankfull
Summary of Current use of KINEROS
• Used for gaged and ungaged basins.
• Peak flow forecasting for gaged basins including
some headwater river forecast points.
• Peak flow forecasting for ungaged basins under
the limitation of categorical forecasting.
Future Work
• Add snow model.
• Add sub-surface lateral
flow.
• Test at other NWS offices.
Example WFO Pittsburgh
urbanized basins:
Questions / Comments?