Indian Merchants’ Chamber
Panel discussion on: Monsoon
2014 and Effective Policy Response
Mumbai. June 26, 2014.
Theme Address / Opening Remarks
G. Chandrashekhar
Chairman, IMC Committee for Agribusiness,
Food Processing and Commodities
Background
• IMD has forecast below-normal Southwest monsoon 2014
• Southwest monsoon in 2014 for whole country (JuneSeptember) likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA)
• Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a
whole is likely to be 93% of LPA with model error of ±4%
• Region-wise, season rainfall likely to be 85% of LPA over
North-West India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of
LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over North-East
India, all with a model error of ± 8 %
• Monthly rainfall over the country as whole likely to be 93% of
its LPA during July and 96% of LPA during August, both with
a model error of ± 9 %.
Looming threat of El Nino
• Indications of developing El Nino – dry
conditions across South Asia and
Southeast Asia
• El Nino likely to strike in H2 2014; but
timing and intensity uncertain
• When El Nino hits Asia, North America
usually enjoys good spring crops (grains,
oilseeds)
INDIA: what’s in store?
• As of June 26, monsoon onset
delayed and weak; movement stalled
near southeast coast; central and
western parts are dry;
• June accounts for 15% of total rains;
yet, delay has set off alarm bells;
crop plantings lagging markedly;
INDIA: What’s in store?
• Effect on crop harvests, people,
policies, politics . . . . .
• Agri: 15% of GDP shared by 53% of
workforce; where’s the equity?
• Instruments of policy response: Fiscal,
Monetary, Trade, Tariff, Administrative;
• Any +ve role private enterprise can play?