Arab Political Demography Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world? Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78 Introduction Start combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues Some Questions Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region? Does it relate to the Muslim World? As a Linguistic Region Arab World Linguistically Defined Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam. Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region? Result Yes, seems fairly unified – it shares a common characteristic (formal region) As a Historical Region Arab World Historically Defined The Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491 Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region? Result Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs. Each of these empires would also be a formal region As a Religous Region With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade Result Depends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity. Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies. Religious % in Arab League As a Political Region Today The Arab World Politically Defined – the Arab League The Arab League - The League of Arab States Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests. Algeria Bahrain Comoros Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Mauritania Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia U.A.E Libya Yemen FACTS OVERVIEW Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia How does this compare to the US? Turkey not Arab Iran not Arab Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state. But it should get you thinking!!! More Direct Comparison USA Population: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012) Capital: Washington D.C. Area: 3.8 million sq miles Major language: English Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN) Arab League Founded: 1945 Population: 340 million (approx. 2007) Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members: 22 members including Palestine Major language: Arabic Life Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for men Conclusion of Comparison Today the Arab League population is bigger than the US 25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the US Question How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region. Result On paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America As a Unified Region How unified is this region? Variations on the Western Fringe: Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs Note Shi’a Locations and Proportions Inside there are variations. Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries Click here for examples: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnect ions/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf Examples of Hidden Information Country What it has to hide Lebanon Religious differences not measured since 1932 Syria Religious differences not measured since 1960 Jordon Ethnic differences not measured since 1948 Total population counts questionable, no religious data S. Arabia Egypt Bahrain Qatar Undercounts Coptic Christians Sunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a majority With an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data not measured Unemployment No Arab state seems to accurately report unemployment For example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%.(recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher) See http://www.indexmundi.com/saudi_arabia/unemployment_rate.html How does this relate to Oil/Gas? Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of “worlds”? Oil and Non-oil? In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil. As an Economic Region Oil Reserves (Gb) Country Gb OPEC Nations Saudi Arabia 261.8 Iraq 112.5 United Arab Emirates 97.8 Kuwait 96.5 Iran 89.7 Venezuela 77.8 Libya 29.5 Nigeria 24 Qatar 15.2 Algeria 9.2 Indonesia 5 Non-OPEC Nations Canada 180 Russia 60 United States 22.4 Mexico 12.6 Norway 10.2 Oman 5.5 United Kingdom 4.7 Egypt 3.7 http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map04.gif Two oil centers in Arab Region Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich Saudi Arabia Oman United Arab Emirates Bahrain Kuwait Qatar The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984. Oil Reserves (Gb) Gulf Cooperation Council Members Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Country Gb GCC Saudi Arabia 261.8 Y United Arab Emirates 97.8 Y Kuwait 96.5 Y Libya 29.5 Qatar 15.2 OPEC Nations Algeria Saudi Arabia Y 9.2 Non-OPEC Nations United A rab E mirates Oman Oman 5.5 Egypt 3.7 Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates N W 500 0 500 E 1000 Miles S Y If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group. A result Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area. GCC states have favored pro-natalist (probirth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why? GCC: Percent Non-Native Population by Year by Country 1975 2000 1990 Bahrain Kuwait Qa tar Unit ed A rab E mirat es Saudi Arabia Oman % Non-Native Under 20% 20 - 35 35 - 50 50 - 65 65 - 80 500 0 500 Population in 2000 Nationals ............ 20 million Non-nationals …. 10 million N W E 1000 Miles S Note how many 30-35 year old Saudi’s there are and how many non-nationals As a Demographic Region 2 1 3 4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) “least developed” regions (not on chart). Result Four Demographic Division of Arab World Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results RNI Slow Growth Lebanon 1960 2.9 1980 2.2 2000 1.4 2.6 2.8 1.9 2.6 3.2 2.5 Slowing Areas Egypt Oil Rich/Pro-Natal GCC Saudi Arabia Not Developing Somolia 2.8 Most recent 2011 2011 Estimates Country TFR NRI Lebanon 1.78 1.04% Egypt 2.69 1.70% Saudi Arabia 2.74 1.90% Yemen 5.09 2.30% Somalia 6.32 2.90% Additional Results 1. Slow growth areas will join developed nations 2. Slowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor Possible Results 3. The GCC hopes to “grow” enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline – too many for too little? 4. The ‘backward’ not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability Somalia??? Final Conclusions There are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, but… Differences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy – and thus possible futures Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states Study Questions 1. Is there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against? 2. In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing? 3. If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.