Havets nåvåförändringar
observationsfakta mot IPCC-modeller
Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden
morner@pog.nu
President INQUA Com. on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)
Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project (2000-2009+)
Co-ordinator INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003)
The Golden Condrite of Merit, 2008, Algarve University:
“for his contribution to our understanding of sea level change”
Förändringar har Fördelar och Nackdelar
det gäller i högsta grad för Global Warming
Men inget gott kan komma från
en snabb stigning av havsytan
Därför ar detta
Det enda Verkliga Hotet
Fast i sanning,
Så Helt Fel !
quod erat demonstrandum
Det är det här det handlar om
Observationsfakta eller Modeldata
1.
maximal isavsmältning
och global sea level
De glaciärer som finns idag
kan aldrig smälta fortare än
istidens enorma ismassor
Smältningen av istidens glaciärer
tog 10,000 år
Och havsytan steg då
med 10 mm/år (1 m/100 år)
Vilket sätter en yttersta gräns för
en möjlig havsytestigning idag
The rate of glacial eustatic rise
after LGM was ~10 mm/yr
and sets the ultimate limit of
possible sea level changes in
the present century (yellow).
IPCC is
coming down
with time !
COMPARE:
Mörner, 1991
~0.0
Mörner, 1996
<+10 cm
INQUA, 2000
+10 ±10 cm
Mörner, 2004
+5 ±15 cm
Mörner, 2010
+5–7 ±10 cm
2.
Thermal Expansion
3.
Sea Level Changes
OBSERVATIONAL FACTS
Numerous interacting factors control the stability of the shoreline
The combined observational records (in mm/year) for the last 300 years.
It shows variations – ups and downs – but no trend.
For year 2100, INQUA gives predictions in line with this record,
whilst the IPCC scenarios lie far above – way off – observational data
4.
Nature’s own observational records
5.
The Maldives
Dömd att översvämmas om 50-100 år
The new sea level curve of the Maldives
recording a seven oscillations
driven by the redistribution of ocean water masses
Mörner, 2007)
(from
Fen-to-lake records
on the island of Goidhoo
~1970
1790
~1700
Queen’s Bath
(4) +0.6 m ~400 BP
(3) +20-30 cm >1970
(2) Present HTL
(1) Present MTL
At ~1970
Sea Level fell some 20 cm
Causing erosion
with sand deposition
outward, downward
Leaving an old fossil shore and
an old overgrewing surface of
grey weathered corals.
The present shore
has remained stable
for ~30 years
The two laked on Goudhoo
dried up
Shore on map
from 1922
Platform >1970
Platform >1970
Fall ~1970
Platform <1970
Sea level changes in the Maldives from 1500 to 2009 and 2100
No reasons for any alarm.
Sea level has been stable for the last 30 years.
Maximum future change may be a return to a pre-1970 level
President
in water
Cabinet under water
Past-Present-Future sea level changes
no threat at all !
6.
Bangladesh
an area cursed by repeated flooding
and doomed to experience
terrible flooding disasters
in the near future
Coastal Erosion !
Sea is Rising !
The IPCCers say
kusterosion – ja
men – ingen havsytestigning
vilket klart framgår av trädens rötter
som sprider sig horisontellt
på precis samma nivå som i skogen bakom
The original clay surface was just above the horizontal roots
The wreck is stranded at HTL
with a storm beach behind.
This suggests a slight lowering
with respect to the delta surface
Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh
There is no global sea level rise in Bangladesh
INDIA
BANGLADESH
MALDIVES
7.
Tuvalu and Vanuatu
Both island-groups claimed already to be
in the process of becoming flooded
Tuvalu – tide gauge record
8 years of slow rise (installation subsidence?) is followed by
22 years of stability – i.e. no sea level rise
the 3 low levels represent ENSO-events
The Vanuatu News Port Vila Press Online, December 2005 declaired that
”a small community living on Vanuatu has had to be formally moved out of harms”
as an effect of the proposed sea level rise and flooding concept.
Vanuatu, another notorious site of ”flooding”,
shows, in fact, no sign of any ongoing sea level rise
8
Venice - a good test site
Located in the slowly subsiding Po delta
any sea level rise or acceleration
would be easily detected
Venice, built on delta deposits, experiences a long-term subsidence (blue line).
Sea level (pink) fluctuated around this line from 1870 to 1970.
No eustatic sea level rise is seen,
and from 1970 there even is a sea level lowering recorded
9.
North-west Europe
land subsidence long the North Sea coasts
and the periphery of uplift in the Kategatt Sea
Korsör
Coxhaven
Amsterdam
Eustatic curve 1680-1970 (för NW Europa)
From 1840 t0 1940 sea level rose by 11 cm – blue line
the Earth’s rate of rotation (LOD) ≈ 10 cm – green line
COXAHVEN 160 YEARS TIDE-GAUGE RECORD
A mean-sinosidal relative sea level rise is composed of
a long-term subsidence (red) of ~1.4 mm/year and
a sinosoidal eustatic rise up to 1960 followed by a slight lowering
Korsör ligger på nollpunkten för landhöjningen
undersenaste 8000 åren. Här skulle sann eustasy råda
(that is, if the instrument is stably located, which is not at all certain)
Vad ser vi?
antingen 7,5 cm stigning 1895-2005 (svart linje)
eller en segmenterad utan trend (red)
ingem acceleration I sent tid (snarare motsatsen)
10.
Satellite Altimetry
A wonderful new tool to measure
the ocean level
but from where does the tilt come?
In 2000
Satellite altimetry – after all physical corrections – showed
NO rising trend
Just a variability around a zero level (blue) + a major ENSO event (yellow).
This data set was presented on the TOPEX/POSEIDON web-page, in their publications,
and used by me in my paper in Global and Planetary Changes, vol. 40, 2004, p. 49-54
In 2003
a totally new record appeared
Now there was a trend of 2.3 mm/year.
This trend is inferrend – not measured
Satellite Altimetry
-0.12 ±0.06 mm/yr ––– +1.9 ±0.9 mm/ye
Satellit kartan stämmer inte med faktiska platsobservationen !
Satellite Altimetry
±0 eller +3
50 havsytedata från French Guiana-Surinam
Den visar en klar dominans för the 18.6 years tidal cycle
runt en stabil noll-nivå
Satellite altimitry ger en stigning på ~3 mm/år
Det finns ett klart budskap i den skillnaden !
Ett värde måste vara fel och det kan ju inte vara observationen.
Om havet skulle stiga snabbt, så skulle Jorden – enligt lage om
vridmomen – uppvisa en deceleration (nerbromsning)
Så är INTE fallet – Varför det?
för att havet INTE stiger – förstås
CONCLUSIONS
No sea level rise recorded:
– in the Maldives
– in Tuvalu
– in Vanuatu
– in Bangladesh
– in French Guiana
– in Venice
– in NW Europe
Thermal expansion
– is small <10 cm – zero at shore
Satellite Altimetry
– records no or just a small rise
CONCLUSIONS
the observational records (curve A) is correct
the IPCC models (curves B-C) are wrong
+5 cm
±15
cm
utan ett översvämningsscenario
finns det inte mycket hot kvar i IPCC
tigern har tappat sina tänder
kanske det aldrig var någon riktig tiger
bara en uppblåst balongdocka
about 200 peer-reviewed papers on Sea Level & Climate
Mörner, N.-A., 2007
The Greatest Lie Ever Told
1st ed, 2007, 2nd ed. 2009, 3rd in 2010, 20 pp.
säljes för 10 Euro
eller 8 NOK
och vart är vi på väg?
mot en Varmare Jord (som IPCC påstår)
eller
mot en Kallare Jord (som Solen anger)
The Gulf Stream
at Solar Maxima (left)
with Earth deceleration
The Gulf Stream
at Solar Minima (right)
with Earth acceleration
Abdassamatov, 2010
Sunspot low – Solar Minimum
Little Ice Age climate condition
SOLAR
Minimum
and
Little Ice Age
conditions
by year
2040
Don’t worry, my son, the present is a reflection of the past
nothing more, nothing less – just the same old story
och äntligen nära
The End
Det är så mycket lögner och överdrifter
kopplade till “Global Warming”
Människor kan uppföra sig så
men träd ljuger inte !
The Maldives
Bangladesh
The Maldives
the tree has a delicate position
(at least since the 1940s)
the slightest sea level rise
would have destroyed it.
This indicates:
No Sea Level Rise in 50 years
Bangladesh
The tree trunks indicate
a significant coastal erosion
The horizontal roots indicate
the same growth level
as in the forest behind
This indicates:
No Sea Level Rise !
Vi ljuger inte heller
sniffar, observerar, dokumenterar
samma gamla historia – lite upp och lite ner
men absolut ingen Global Översvämning
och självfallet aldrig i Oslo med stark landhöjning